Long term you will find that most
rating programs will find 20% winners with their top rated selection ,
13% with the second rated and 10-11% with the third rated horse. All in
all the winner will be found in the top three 45-50% of the time.
Back any one of this group and you will almost certainly lose money
most of the time. On the other hand, you could develop betting strategies
involving the top three and by betting varying amounts on each off these
horses you could come up with enough winning races to make consistent profits.
June and the varying track conditions have brought horses a lot closer
together with top rated , second rated and third rated horses all having
similar strike rates. Still the cream continues to rise to the top.
The best performed horses in a race, historically, continue to have
the best strike rates. These horses are not necessarily the top rated horses.
When compiling ratings, all services select a qualifying run. The question
is then asked, "Can this horse perform today?" If today's race is of similar
standard then the answer may well be yes.
The problem is though, if the track conditions are not good such as
on slow and heavy tracks, then our selection may well be inconvenienced
by the conditions (as are all runners) and may not reach the peak performance
rating required to win the race.
This is when we find the answer lies in not the one good race but in
the overall performance over a lot of races. This can be determined in
What is the win strike? A horse that consistently wins 30% or more of
its races, especially when it has had 20 or 30 starts, is likely to continue
What is the place strike? A horse that is amongst the highest strike
rate horses in the race, is likely to continue to race consistently, especially
when it has had a sufficient number of starts.
What is the average prize money earned per race? A horse that has consistently
earned more prize money than the other contenders is far more likely to
be amongst the winners list than those with only lesser amounts of prize
Whilst for long periods of time the top rated horse may have a good
strike rate and good dividends, to blindly follow that horse on a race
to race basis, is folly, especially when conditions are as they are now.
To single out the top rated horse only when it has proven consistency,
is a far better policy.
In the meantime, there is still good money to be made by watching for
the occasion when you can back the top three horses and get a good return
no matter which one wins.
There are two ways of determining this. You can purchase a good betting
program like Probet which sells for less than one hundred dollars or you
could get a Staker which is for people without computers or for those needing
a hand held device at the racetrack . The Staker costs just under $1,000
and many purchasers have made that money back in a single day.
Each person has their own favourite betting strategy. It doesn't hurt
though to take a look at what other people are doing. You just might learn
that there is a better way.