From
Claude Toscan:
I
was wondering if Brett Craig could tell me what points "split" is required
to make a top selection a best bet, each way bet etc.....Also
can we frame an odds market with this points system?
Best
wishes.... Claude.
Brett Craig
replies:
Yes
Claude, we can work out prices if we wish. Simply add up the total points
of the main chances.
Example:
Horse
A: 80 points
Horse
B: 70 points
Horse
C: 50 points
Horse
D: 44 points
TOTAL:
244 points
In this
market...
Horse
A equals 80/244, or 2/1 chance,
Horse
B equals 70/244, or 5/2 chance,
Horse
C equals 50/244, or 5/1 chance,
and
Horse D equals 44/244, or 9/2 chance.
To make
A stand out, let's do it again:
Horse
A: 80 points
Horse
B: 50 points
Horse
C: 30 points
TOTAL:
160 points
We now
have Horse A equal to 80/160, or 50%, or EVEN MONEY.
Once
again, to determine prices, simply divide the horse's points by the total
points of all the chances and multiply by 100 to get the horse's chance
of winning. The result of this will give a very clear guide to a horse's
fitness, ability and handicap (weights, barriers etc).
Allan
Nuss Asks: I
find your Simple Ratings for Punters a great article but I am not sure
on a few points.
For example: in the example race how do you work out the Base Rating for
the horse Asterman? Do you add only the last run (8 points) or all three
last runs including the two before the spell (1 + 10 + 8 to get 19)?
Thank you for your assistance. Regards, Allan Nuss.
Brett Craig
Replies:
Allan,
the Fitness Points takes care of this situation. You always add the last
3 runs, then make additions or deductions according to the table. You will
notice that a second up run gets a deduction!
If
you have any questions that you would like Brett to answer, simply email
them to:
garry.r@hunterlink.net.au |
