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Autumn 2011 Edition| Last Updated for Monday 31st May:
Monday 31stMay: Don't worry. You didn't miss anything yesterday with heavy tracks at both venues. We have had more confirmed bookings for the one day Seminar at Raffertysresort near Newcastle to be held on June 19th from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. It's difficut to line up one single day when a) the venue is available, b) everyone who wants to come can come. It's no longer practical for us to visit other centres due to extensive costs.
For those who can't make it but want assistance we do still have availability for you to visit our office at Mannering Park. We do this on a one on one or one on two basis for a similar cost and we find that people do tend to fit this in within a visit to the region. Enquiries to about this and the one day Seminar to email@example.com. with your best contact number.
Today Armidaleis abandoned and Dubbo is Heavy but that leaves Townsville and Wodonga Good so I expect some action today.
Sunday 29th May: My milk and bread ran out this morning so after a quick trip I created a bacon and egg sandwich to chew on while I reminisced over yesterday's results. The Knights won last night, of course, losing their chief playmaker Jarrod Mullen for the season in the process. It rained throughout and the trek to the car resulted in a drenching for me and Ros.
On the Winform Daily Mail we selected 16 races and found eight winners in the top three for a return of $57.60 for $48 outlay if you wish to look at it that way. There were six Quinellas and two Trifectas but none big enoug to glaot about.
The Bank did well. Only 1/2 a unit profit for the win but my $69 share of the Brisbane Quaddie scored me $1900 but I scored only $15.70 back from $69 outlaid on the Any Two in the last at Doomben (1st, 2nd and 4th). After adding in the Quaddie the Bank has reached $7995, not bad for starting at $2000 way back in January. The new base bet is now $105. How unlucky was I in that last race. 1st 2nd and 4th with such a tight photo.
Our Weekend Sports Bet of Freo to beat St Kilda was never close. We have one more today at Etihad so best we can get is two out of three. For the season so far it is 20 from 40.
Saturday 28th May: More winners yesterday but I hope a few members stopped at a very good profit. Unfortunately this day I kept on and ended a couple of units down. I've been flat out this morning and just corrected a dumb mistake. The One Day SEMINAR IS ON JUNE 19TH not January. Anyhow we have bookings already and I can only take eight.
I have finally got around to having some bets for the Bank today. I have bets in the last four races at Doomben,the Quaddie,an Any Two would you believe, which I hope to get multiple times and of course a Trifecta in there somewhere.
Our first Weekend Sports bet was successful and did it comfortably at the $2 I scored at Readbet.
I head off to the Newcastle Knights game at four, right after the Doomben 10,000 in which I give Buffering an excellent chance. He has never been past 1200 metres but all his runs have been classy, and yes Beaded gets a chance here too. It looks like I will get wet walking to the footy even though we have undercover seats. The Knights were hevaily backed wiht over $50,000 in bets once it was announced that Kurt Gidley will play.
Friday 27th May: We had a few bets yesterday. One came in from $6.50 to less than $4 but was available at $7 Unitab. I scored $6 myself because I waited too long. Our next winner was $5.30 best tote but I took $4 fixed but at the end of the day four races two winners and can't complain. Well ahead for the week. I will watch the track at Wagga for a couple of races before having a bet. The commentators were telling us about the favourite. "It's $2.80 or less on all totes but has drifted on course to $4.40". It lost easily.
I noticed today that my computer tech yesterday loaded I.E.9. I was wondering why my browser looked different. You can only download it to Windows 7 and it is hard to tell if it's any better as there are still "buggy" things about it. Mr X in the meantime, was uoset with yesterday. He said "bet the Top Two" and the third rated horse won at a good price. Frustrating!
I did a run through of the last four mintsh ratinsg and January was easily the best. I ran thorugh a comparison of getting 10% rebate on losing bets,getting best of three totes and getting the better of SP or tote. Getting the rebate on losing bets was easily the best result at 1.6% better. That might not seem much but over thousands of bets, which is what our Professionals would do it is many thousands of dollars.
ONE DAY SEMINAR; This is likely to be held on Sunday June 19th at Raffertysresort Cams Wharf (Newcastle) between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. Cost is $550 and interested readers can email firstname.lastname@example.org to advise their interest.
Thursday 26th MAY: Yesterday was a disaster. I had computer problems, the house was being repainted when another fault was found (wet spot in the downstairs ceiling) and I just know i cannot recommend Eden Brae homes. We have now been in the house 19 months and still getting rectifcations.
Anyhow we missed a $15 winner yesterday although by race start time $7 was about the best and at that price the day would have been a loser but I had doubts about the weather so with no way to advise clients in the arvo, decided to give it a miss.
My computer is up and running again and the fix was easy, just finding it was the hard part. I possibly could have found it mysefl but I am reluctant to download "fixes" from websites I don't know. That's why we need the experst I guess.
Today is another mish mash of track conditions but it is is Winter. My prediction earlier this week proved frutitfull (take NSW with 6.5 start in State Of Origin). I got off track slightly. Today I will be looking at a few bets, fortunately our ratings are adjusted for wet tracks both past and present. Here's to good luck today.
Tuesday 24th May: The Randwick Quaddie yesterday paid between $4600+ and $17000+ depedning where you bet it. I took Iasbet and got the $10k dividend. Am I disappointed ? No. If I had bet at the NSWTAB I would have been. Had I bet at Unitab directly, my extra dividend would have dropped the payout to about $10k, similar to what I got.
Anyhow. I had five runners in the last leg and a guranteed minimum payout of $2400+ I spent $1100 to back every other runner for a guaranteed $1,000 profit. So I lost $1,000 of my Quaddie payout but at the barrier there was some doubt that the winner would even run. I could have just let my investment run but that's not what I normally do.
There were obviously some good winners yesterday but I also took an all up and from the four races I chose my score was 3rd, win, 3rd and nose 2nd. That was a $2200 loss but of course with the Quaddie and other winners I was well up anyway.
The other two races were both winners so I thought I would run the lot through Parlay Magic. This produced a sequence of three winners and for the same outlay the end result was plus several thousand. Of course to do that you have to be there as each race is decided. But hey! This is work you know.
Now here is a special offer for our readers. Dynamic Race odds has an updated programwhich allows you to see all the odds on every race in Australia and using your own betting accounts you can bet direct from the program in much faster time than goign through the bookmkers or TAB sites. We are offering a free trial of this product and even thoguh when you click the link it says two week trial, you will actually receive a three week trial. We recommend Dynamic Race Odds to all our clients and use it ourselves. Our software programs will sit on top of the DRO page so you can do your calculations while you view the current odds. So click here now.
Monday 23rd May: Could not justfy betting today with two heavy tracks and a slow that may get chopped up as the day goes on. I might have been better taking the 2.5 points start with the Knights yesterday. It was a dreadful performance with many missed opportunities. Hope Origin is better. I have taken the 6.5 start with the Blues but with no great optimism. Belle is working on the E-News and will sedn that out later today.
Sunday 22nd May: Nine races in the Winform Daily Mail yesterday.5 Quinellas including a $93 one and two Trifectas plus two First Fours, both small. Flemington Race 7 you could have ducth bet allfive runners for a $17.40 winner. I doubt if you could have dutch bet Blemont Race 7 but there was a $51 winner and a long shot third placegetter. Pity it wasn't second as the Quinella would have been more than interesting.
Today I am off to a family BBQ for my niece's eldest. He will be 10yo. Yes I'll get home in time to watch the Knights game. Yesterday I was on payouts of between $12k and $55kgoing into the last at Rosehill. Unfortunately Glinz mssed the start and had to be used up to get to his cutomary role in front. The Rosehiill track did not look like a Good 3 to me.
Saturday 21st May: It was interesting to hear what Nathan Tinkler had to say yesterday.He admitted that his foray into Racing and Breeding has not worked out the way he wanted but he loves the game and will continue. He has 300 employees in the Racing business and hopes to bring the base of his operations to Newcastle but to do so he needs 100 boxes and that won't be easy. Think development applications, objections from local residents etc. etc.
Our first Weekedn Sports Bet lost as Geelong could not overcome their 15.5 point handicap but the game wa a cracker nevertheless and Carlton blew it with two misses from two gettable shots in the last couple of minutes. Either one would have given them the win but the points are on the board as they say.
I'm looking forward to a great day of Racing today. I'm a bit sore from going to the gym yesterday but a win or two will ease the pain. Last week I tried out one of the oppostions's ratings and did so with real money. Betting $100 per race I dropped $600 which luckily I got back on one of my own specials. I keep getting emails telling me how good they are going and from some past clients how ordinary. I have now seen for myself and like many other sets of ratings based on weights or weighting various factors, the strike rates are mostly higher than what we get with Winform but you don't see regular $10 and $20 winners like we do.
Ask yourself. What is better? A 50% strike rate in the top three at $4 average or a 45% strike rate at $6+ or you can even get a top two strike of 50% if you mostly bet the favourite and second favourite but this wont make you money. If it did, bookmakers would soon be out of business. We are a relatively minor player in the ratings game (AAP are the biggest I think but no champions at it and there are many others, some cheaper but most a lot more expensive) but our subscribers average length of subscriptions runs into 10 years plus in many cases. A few leave to try other optionsbaed on all the hype but most come back within a few months.
Friday 2oth May: Paul has been a client of mine for many years and like many of our Members he simply plugs away and makes his money. I know that Paul has every book we have ever published and also those we sell for other authors. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a room in his house dedicated to his Racing publications.Anyhow, Paul calls every few months to try this angle or some other angle he has read about but in the end he keeps coming back to one Plan whihc he has now stuck to for the past few years. Here's his email from last night.
I try not to bother you with questions you have answered before but I am still having trouble understanding how to use Money Factory on football betting to make money. When you have your first bet do you place the same amount on each team ? I am just having a bit of trouble working out how to set up the staking etc. I would appreciate any help you could provide.
I saw your comments in the diary the other day about the C Plan and I agree 100%. The C Plan actually stopped me from being a reckless punter to becoming an investor. Anyone who can exercise a bit of discipline will win with this strategy, in fact I can’t see how you can lose if you follow your instructions. I actually now expect to win when I start betting on Saturdays and usually the only time I lose is if I become greedy and lose the discipline required to bet as per your books recommendations"
How can I not answer Paul's query after a recommendation like that? What Paul alludes to, I think, is the articles I wrote about betting both sides. You see, in sport when you bet you can take a line i.e. in the Carlton/Geelong game tonight Geelong is a short priced favourite. To make the contest more interesting to punters as a betting proposition, a line is introduced so in this game the bookmakers will payout if Geelong wins by more than 15 points at $1.90 to $2.00 depending where you bet. Similarly, they will payout Carlton supporters if Carlton lose by less than 15.
In issue three of HorseRacingAustralia magazine, we published a table which shows the most favorable spreads for NRL and AFL teams depending on the bookmakers price for an outright win. (that issue can still be purchased and is worth it's weight in gold for this article alone). That table forms the basis of our Sports selections which annually strike 61% or better wins at $1.92 +
Anyhow, Pauls query relates tothe theory that you could use Money Factory Professional to bet both sides in a contest and in fact I did this myself three or four years ago, winning about $500 a week during the footy season. I simply set up two columns in Money Factory Professional. One column was for the home team and the other for the away team. For the very first game each side gets the same bet of course but over time both columns will fluctuate, soemtimes one is losing and sometimes the other but btoh coulmns will win.
You see, the loss on levels stakes if 50% of the games are won is at worst 5%. Long term statistics show that the swing between the favoured team and the non favoured team are 49% to 51% or vice versa. So if the method is so profitable, why did I stop betting on every game? Answer? I felt that the pressure to follow every result in both NRL and AFL (games are often played simultaneously) was ruining my enjoyment of the game. I still bet on the footy but only on the games I am watching. It adds an extra edge.
Today I am expecting to meet Nathan Tinkler. You would all be aware how Nathan has bought and now supports a number of sporting teams in the Hunter. What has been lost lately is his interest in Racing. I hope to hear his views on that, given that he is one of Australia's biggest owners and breeders.
So I will be fully occupied today but luckily our SMS subscribers should be in front for the week because although it was looking grim, we scored a winner which we backed from as much as $32 into $17.50. It was a welcome relief.
Thursday 19th May: I admit to being under the pump today. Yesterday Stan spent the afternoon with me learning the intricacies of Powerbet. In the last betting race of the day the necessary winner saluted and funny enough, the First Four of $13,000 was in the first four rated horses along with all the other exotics. Ratings subscribers did score the Balaklava Quaddie yesterday but just missed the Belmont one when our selecion ran 2nd at $37.80. Imagine how good that would have been?
Saturday's Doomben Cup looks to have two main contenders and in early markets Earl Of Fife and Shoot Out look to be the main chances at $3.80 and $5.50. Glass Harmonium is being kept safe at $4 but no one knows how he will resond to a 14 day back up, somehting the horse has never done before. The track is expected to be no worse than Dead. In fact they toyed with the idea of putting water on the track yesterday.
Wednesday 18th May: Bloody awful day with only a couple of short priced winners. Dropped a small fortune but the next win is just around the corner. It all depends on conditions today. Funnny thing. I could have just bet the Best Bet and Premium selections for two out of two! The results were but a blip in thePowerbet and Money Factory strategies but level stakes can be bloody devastating when the *** hits the fan.
Tuesday 17th May: As you might expect. I a not a happy chappie at the moment. Progress on the final figures for my strategies are 90% complete but it's that last 10% that is like the line in the water receding from me as I nearly get there.
Yesterday Mr X scored another win on the Daily Feature even thoguh he suggested betting four runners. The winner at $6.50 ensured a nice profit. The top rated horse could only mange third, costing us the Quinella which would have been massive, Both the Best Bet and The Premium selection went down.
The Powerbet strategy was a good winner yesterday and The C Plan scored a couple of nice wins. The biggest proble with the C Plan is the patience required as approximately one in six races is eligible. For Wednesdayas and Saturdays with fixed price markets known in advance there is a possibility of using those and getting on in the morning. I haven't testes this but it seems likely it could be profitable. I know some Members do use the Prepost markets for their C Plan betting.
Monday 16th May: It's amazing to me that I put up any necessary information here daily if I can yet I still get emails from people with stupid comments like "you should have notified members about such and such..." . The link to the diary is on every E-News we send out, usually one or two a week, and as we are now in about our fifth or sixth year of running the Diary with over 9,000 viewers I just don't get it. Do you?
I must apologise for simply not having the time to chase up every subscriber who's subscription expires. I do my best to email about 2-3 weeks beforehand but one of the problems is that by putting "subscription renewal" or "ratings" in the email title many of my emails go straight to junk mail. In any case on the day the subscription has expired a notice does appear on the website and most times we can have the sub up and running again within a couple of hours.
The "C" Plan continues on it's merry way and I was having a discussion with Geoff this morning and said about how we recommended quitting after a profit for the day. Geoff doesn't do this "call me greedy I guess...". Geoff simply works on the principle that the more he bets the more he makes and that has proven to be the case for him with results living up to the expectations in "Garry Robinson's Race Winning Strategies" which sells for $295 and includes four weeks trial of the Winform Ratings so you can really get stuck into it and see for yourself. So here's a question. Is there anyone who can honestly say they did not get their moneyback after just a few days betting the C Plan?
Sunday 15th May: A shocking day yesterday for the Winform Daily Mail. Eleven races selected, twelve if you include the Weekend Feature Race , for just two top rated winners and that included Balck Caviar, but in the Daily Mail we provide the top five selections in each race so subscribers can have the Quinella, Trifecta and First Four if you want to.
We scored five Quinella $16.90, $49.10, $1.40, $39.10 AND $245. The Exacats were bigger of course. TRifectas? There were three at $266.50, $6.50 and wait for it.... $4529 altough one of our subscribers got the LOWEST DIVIDEND AT JUST OVER $3,000. There was only one First Four. It paid $25,500+ and we noticed a punting forum entry that told of a flexi bet on it that paid for their whole year's ratings.
Last year the Daily Mail scored a $29,900 First Four so we do get them every so often. Tony started subscibng to the Winform Daly Mail yesterday.
Got 10% of tri which is O/K for small player like me....just backed it at the wrong place!
Sportsbet paid $3138
But I am very happy...keep it up..many thanks
Saturday 14th May: With Belle busy organising her new home I am doing the ratings myself today. This includes selecting todays Daily Feature Race. I had a shocker yesterday after pinning my faith on Hidden Wonder and leaving out our 2nd and 3rd rated horses which ended up winning and placing in the Scone Cup. I also quit I was so disgusted with the run and lo and behold a couple of races later was Chauncery at $27.50.
Mr X lucked out yesterday too so it was really a Friday 13th fro Members although those using the Powerbet strategy had a good win.
Friday 13th May: A good win at $4.60 yesterday for our SMS subscribers. Today is Good tracks everywhere so we will be betting. I'm sure there will be some surprises as horses that have been failing on wet tracks will suddenly improve. Our second rated horses at Canberra race 5 has won at $10. I couldn't have it. 33 startes for just nine places is simply not good enough for me. I skipped the race but those who simply follow the top two are on a winner.
Belle moved today and I just watched as her unwanted furniture was put into storage. Don't we accumulate? Mat is in hospital getting his medication right so that is more time out but getting organised as I signed papers for the transfer of title on our old office which settles shortly. Now if I could sell my other house at Mannering Park I would be out of debt. Of course if I have a big win that would do it too. Lotto doesn't pay well enough.
Thursday 12th May: I am somewhat amazed that Hawkesbury is a Good track today. They must have missed all that rain. The fields aren't impressive but I think I have found a winner, possibly two.
The Weekend Sports tip are behind on level stakes but using Money FactoryProfessional Edition we are +9.3% on turnover. I hope to lift my game. Craig Boots who used to do the Footy Tips and magazine articles left last year.His record of 61% wins at $1.95 is hard to beat given the inconsistencies of the two codes so far this year.
Wednesday 11th May: Took me a long time tocome up with any decent selections today but I notice my first is in from $4 to $3.50 so here's hoping. Then it's Belmont which can be a biit dodgy as the Perth horses switch to the second track. The Ascot form does not always convert over.
I started at 3 a.m. this morning and just got the last of the book orders from last week away.I've sent out renewal notices for the ratings. I'll try to get the other subs such as Daily Mail and Feature Race away tomorrow.
Bugga! Kuito Blaze has just got beat by Lord Chiefly which before today had just one win and three seconds from 31 starts. Now on top of that we have run second and third at Belmont. Told ya! The horse that beat us there had just two wins from 29 starts and six placings. Frustrating! Wish I had taken an all up place double instead.
Tuesday 10th May: Mr X is doing well, back on the winning streak he started with and again yesterday found the winner in the suggested selections at $6.20. He missed the Quinella but who's perfect? He scored the Trifecta Sunday.
We're at Novotel Coffs Harbour. The grounds are great and the restaurant is well presented and has a great outlook but the rooms, though refurbished are tired. Wieless broadband is a bit dodgy which is surprising. I guess we are in a hollow.
We spent most of yesterday caught in a horrendous rain storm which barely let up and we could see how the Coffs Harbour track is often rain affected. We visited the Oberois Indian restaurant at the Jetty again last night and they didn't dissappoint but Canberrra did in their bumbling stumbling match against the Manly Sea Eagles, going down 20 to nil.
We'll take our time getting home today, we have about 4 to 5 hours of driving but the road is O.K. from here. All of ast week's orders will be processed and out tomorrow and thanks for your patience. I hope to catch up with results soon but so far the overall picture is looking good.
Monday 9th May: So starts the long trek home. Last night waas spent at Jupiters Casino were the pokies outnumber the tables 100/1 and the line ups for food ran to hours. The room was O.K. though but Quest Platinum in Toowoomba is easily the best accomodation we have experienced in the past week.
Our top rated horse won the Adelaide Derby at $21 yesterday yet had the race been run on Saturday it would have incurred a 20 point penalty because of the 2 from 15 win record. Being a Group Race our record suggests that a bet was a good idea, we just kill it overall for the prices we get in these races and we continue to prosper from them and there were sound reasons for backing it if you made some excuses in its form.
I reckon most of our punters were with Mum though.
Sunday 8th May: There were just as many people at Toowoomba races last night as at Sandown last Sunday. That is. Not many. Two bookmakers were there but the vast majority of bets were by phone rather than from the 20 or so punters I saw in the betting arena. Ros and I scored two of the first three winners before we left. My viewing of the track (I was there a couple of hourse before the first), confirms what my ratings are telling me. The time factors I have built into Winform are quite ACCURATE. I do recall that one of our Members made a comfortablle living simply betting at Toowoomba each week. He was devesated when they changed the track but at least we still get more than our fair share of winners there.
On to Jupiters today to review our look at Casinos (first published on this website in the 90's and probably still in the archives or past history).
I did forget to mention our vist to Tenterfield Bakery yesterday. Apart from being extremely clean and modern I had the best chunky steak pie I have ever eaten. I am a bit worried though that my weight is going up in my travels.
Saturday 7th May: No joy yesterdays ratings. My SMS subscribers finished square for the week. There are worse results.
The Armidale track looks great but the only use this weekend is for one of those travelling exhibitions. The Deepwater Jocky Club still has signs up advertising the Deepwater Cup in January 2011, I can hardly wait but I still managed to end up in Tenterfield on my way to tonights Toowoomba meeting.
It's interesting to hear but with all the debate over poker machines I read that there are 58,000 Members at the new Brisbane Lions supporters Springwood Club which isboasting mammoth expected profits due to their huge array of Poker Machines. We can only hope this comes from players using the machines as entertainment without going overboard. The Wilkie legislation will ensure this.Poker machine players know they can't win. At least horse players know they have a chance if they are smart.
The Gold Coast remains rain affected today which is a pity but the track always seems to come up well and the quality ofthe fields is first class.
Friday 6th May: We found a great Indian restaurant in the jetty strip at Coffs last night "Oberois" and it was at the end of a flawed day. Kennys World could only run second for us. Today I amy back up to three runners in the Wagga Cupas we head towards Goodiwindi and Toowoomba. Checking out the race tracks on the way I am visiting some fopr the first time.It is one thing to assess each track on times run and compare but another to see the oddities about each.
Dont forget the bookshop offer (see yesterday) and I will send the Wagga tips to SMS subscribers about lunch time I guess. The Saturday subscribers will probabaly get a tip or two for Adelaide Sunday but will send these tonight or tomorrow.
Thursday 5th May: At Opal Cove Resort Coffs Harbour. Had a great win on the Wangoom at Warnambool as did our SMS subscribers and also the Winform Bank. i am having trouble replying to email so please be patient while I check with Telstra on my wi fi. Our top tip was $7 into $5 but in the a.m. you could have got $9 from Iasbet. Checking today's Wagga meeting for a possible tip.
Our Members who have Vicbet.com accounts can bet with Rod Cleary on all race meetings today. My SMS tips will go out for Wagga shortly and I believe I have two winners from two races today. I am hoping for a Good track at Wagga but my selections have wet track form anyway.
We have a special offer at present. Make any book purchase of $99 or more (excluding Roger BIggs books) for the online store and you will get a copy of the Winform software pack for no additional charge. Offer ends tomorrow 5p.m. All orders will be posted next week.
Tuesday 3rd May: I'm away from the office over the next few days but it's all happening as normal. The regular phone is diverted and we are checking email daily. I hope to report about Toowoomba races Saturday night as well as checking out other venues along the way. The E-News today features my weekend visit to Sandown last Sunday where I met a jazz trio consisting of Ash on double bass, Greg on Tenor Sax and Jack on rhythm guitar. As a past professional musician backing artists on tour like John Farnham, Shirley Bassey and many others including support for Paul Hogan, Bob Hawke when he was on his election campaign and regular weekend gigs hastily attended after an afternoon at the races, we had some things in common. I promised to give the boys a mention in the diary so here it is!.Their music made attandance worthwhile even though no one else was there but more of that in E-News later today.
"I am told that everyone got a second copy of last Wednesday's E-News. You know what? We didn't send it. We'll send this weeks E-News today"
Monday 2nd May: Ros has been looked after well while I was away and she is feeling much better. Biopsies have been taken and we get those results in two weeks but the surgeon feels it will be O.K. with treatment.
I will be sending out my weekend report in the E-News. It is interesting and includes yesterday when I and about 150-200 others attended the Sandown Lakeside venue. It was tragic except that Winform cleaned up big time early with a$11 winner in Race 2 and a $14 winner in Race 3.
The weekend was O.K. too with the Daily Feature being a Winner at $6 plus Quinella and Trifecta $300+. It was the first leg of a winning Quaddie at Morphettville.The Quaddie paid $28,163 and proved once again how magic the Winform Top Five can be. Of course I was in a plane at the time so those who collected can thank me for staying out of it. It was the only succesful Quaddie on the day but at the price we will take it. The Quaddie paid $34,000 on Unitab and the Treble $2218.
Saturday 30th April: I can't believe it.John Furgal of bonzatips sent me five greyhound tips yesterday at The Gardens and only got one lousy winner. Lucky it paid $27!! Not too many greys pay this sort of money but I can say he has made a lot of money with his greyhound tips even though the last few horse tips seem to have run second or third.
My SMS selections for Saturday will be confined to Melbourne which has the least damp tracks at the moment and I think I can find two winners from three selections (two are in theone race).
Unfortunately Ros took so ill in the doctors office yesterday (there to get help with her stomach conditon) that she was put into hospital on a drip. Nothing serious but it's no fun feeling ill all the time. It has slowed me down somewhat and slowed my progress on the E-Book.
I will be in Melbourne the next couple of days so no more entries until Monday late. I am meeting with some of the Racing people at various agencies and I hope to find a deal or two for Members. I'm not leaving Ros alone, Belle and Natalie will be here to look after her if need be.
Friday 29th April: Regards Greg H we nearly pulled off the win on the Penola Cup at 50/1 but the $330 Qnl was a nice back up. Hope a few members snared it as well. "I reckon you could have taken the aged horses out of the equation and then you have first and second rated runing the Quinella. As it is we did point out a few weeks ago the very high strike rate of Quinellas betting the top five Winform horses.
Anyone who hasn't read Grge Horn's book Professional Punting My Personal Approach,should do so. Click on the online store at left to check it out. It all makes a lot of sense when you read it.
Friday's list is not impressive but there look a coupe of good prospects quite late in the afternoon. It will depend on the track condition and prices. By the way. I used the selected races on Tuesday for examples for the new E-Book. Both the Powerbet Strategy and the Winform Top Three strategy made good money.
Thursday 28th April: I can't believe I missed yesterday's Diary. Sorry about that but at leats I was concentrating on winning and we had a nice win for SMS members with a $10 winner and $17 Quinella in the seventh at Strathalbyn. We were on the favourite in the last there but at $2.20 she only beat two horses home. For the Bank I had just two bets. The first was a Quinella at Cranbourne plus the Trifecta but alas only got 2nd and 4th. The Strathalbyn race was the other bet and it was a simple Quinella at $23 each combination for a $390+ return. If I have any bets today it is likely to be at Rockhampton depending on the weather of course.
Tuesday 26th April: When you are selecting individual horses, form analysis can become difficult. You are dealing with small numbers and you can have runs of wins or losses that spread over long periods. The advantage of using strategies like the Winform ratings or top four prepost or whatever, there is little regard for the horsers themselves as they become simple numbers. We put those simple numbers through Powerbet or Money Factory and while there will be good and bad runs, the pressure on the user is simply to get the bets on.
Have a look at the long term results of the Winform Ratings and you will see what I mean. The long term averages for every track in Australia can be clearly seen. A wise punter might look at what tracks are racing today and onl;y choose to bet at venues where the long term strike rate is looking positive e.g. Today they race at Pinjarra where the Winform Ratings have a strike rate Top Two of 35% at $6 and 49% Top three at $6.35. At Penola the strike rate at 31.5% is not flash but the average dividend of $6.75 is. Bendigo, for an unkown reason is only 30% but the dividend average is only $5.27 so although winners are found, they are generally less frequent and likely to pay a lower than average dividend. Canberra has a great strike rate and average dividend. Mackay is good but apparently they have had a lot of rain and if the track is Heavy I will be leaving that venue out. The analysis suggest that by betting at just the tracks where strke rate is O.K. and dividend good, we are on the right track.
Monday 25th April: There was an important thing raised in the paper today. We especially remember the fallen, but for every one of those there are at least three more who were physically or emotionally wounded by war.It is these Australians and their families we should also remember today.
Last Saturday wasa mixed bag with a few winners popping in but then later on the whole thing dried up and the day is summed up by Gary from Toowoomba.
Me again, shit! I had to wait til the very last race on the sheet (Winform Daily Mail) - the Ascot race we discussed was a dead loss! A 16.60 winner at Toowoomba (a couple of blocks away!) was well worth the wait! Actually the quinella paid around $150 as well, if you went that way.I'm feeling rather pleased with myself for sticking to it. I know it doesn't always have the Disney ending but I was due this one! Stick to the system, and you gotta have faith!
Lay off those Easter eggs - go make yourself an omlette!
Just to bring you a little up to date with where Gary is coming from> Gary works for himself and is also a SMS subscriber. Well we got out of a hole last week with a couple of good winners on Thursday but as he was on a job (using noisy machinery) he missed those last two winners.
Sunday 24th April: Happy Easter.
Saturday 23rd April: I had a bugga of a day today as I was away from the office but the wi fi I was using didnt allow me to send out our SMS tips. I finally found an outlet and got them away but thn suddenly discovered the serious track downgrade at Randwick so had to send out a repeat SMS cancelling all bets for the day and I am glad I did, although I had already placed one major bet before I realised the change. Fair dinkum it was only Dead at scratchings!
Thursday 21st April: I made a good job of wiping out the week's profits yesterday. I lost just one unit for the Bank as my only outlay was a Double late in the day. For my SMS service the winners just didn't come, they ran places. In nine races I found just two winners and that's appalling. Our last bet was a good winner ($4.20 into $3.60) but too little too late. Ironically, anyone betting our Powerbet Top Three strategy would have made a profit on those races. I managed to do iintense form analysis and eliminate two good priced winners. Admittedly, a sensational ride by one J. Cassidy turned a non winner at the distance into a good winner by varying the pace of the race at various stages.
I'm hoping for a Good track at Randwick Saturday and there is a good chance of that. I'll be putting my thoughts into today's E-News.
Mat is just one day away from his first paid Easter break in 15 years of employment, most of which has been casual. Fingers crossed. That is one race I want to win.
I sign off today on the sale of our office. So far I have never lost a cent on any property I have owned and my property investment started with a $50,000 race win in the 90's which I used as a deposit to purchase a unit at Raffertys Resort. I sold that unit at a profit and bought a newer bigger one which I also sold at a good profit.I used that profit to purchase a block of land there and sold that too at a good profit. The money I made in those purchases fully paid for one of the two units I still own there.They are basically my Super Fund.
I recommend to anyone who will listen that if they score a decent Racing win that they put the profits towards property.
Wednesday 20th April: A good result for SMS subscribers yesterday. We had a Platinum Gold winner at $3 plus a second at $34 ($7.60 the place) and a $9.90 winner. Today we should be able to find a good bet or two as well.
Here's my recipe for a great breakfast omelette. It is part of my diet that has seen me as much as 10kgs lighter. I have one every second or third day.
Start with a 6" frypan. Cut one piece of bacon into small strips and start cooking, add a couple of chopped up button mushrooms ( half a dozen small slices), a couple of cut cherry tomatoes a minute later. Add a desert spoon of water to two eggs and beat with a fork or whisk until mixed. Centre the ingredients and then pour the egg over the top. Use your egg flip to fold back the edges so that the excess fluid runs to the edge. After one minute add pepper or a few bits of grated cheese then fold over to one side. Turn off the heat. The inside of the omelette wil settle after a minute. Flip onto your plate and embellish with sweet chilli sauce or BBQ according to taste.
The whole process takes five minutes and is delicious and you will you are not hungry, especially if you have drink of water with it.
I have been reviewing the Powebet top three strategy that appears on the home page. I find it still works fine but I can see how some members may have got it wrong. The most common error is "forcing" the bet i.e. there is a tendency to put the next horse in which at times can lead to a winner but generally adds to the number of bets, reducing the overall viability and creating more stop losses.
Here's an example. You have thee runners at $6, $6 and $4.. That's 59%. That's over our limit of 50%, well over. But three runners is acceptable at is $5, $6 and $6 (53%). You have to stop somewhere. You can also cut out bets that you eliminate as a risk e.g. a last start maiden winner which rarely repeat.
Tuesday 91th April: We broke our drought a bit with the sports bets and just two wins from seven plays has us just one win away from a good profit. More abandoned races yesterday but even though the field fell away in yesterday's Daily Feature the Trifecta was there. Personally Iwould have passed up Grafton altogether at that stage. Heavy tracks do tend to be a lottery. Narromine was abandoned in the end.
Yesterday I put my "tinny" in the water for the frist time since last Easter. I decided to see how long it would take to get to Raffertys Resort where I planned to have a coffee. The water was smooth as glass and 30 minutes later I was there. That was the end of the plan though as I had come away without the cash I thought I had out in my back pocket. I enjoyed the ride though. At the end I then found that because it had been so long I could not get the flushing screw out to flush the motor. Another problem to be solved.
The rest of the day was spent reviewing data and checking emails etc. Here's one I got.
Paddy's in jail. The Guard looks in his cell and see's him hanging by his feet.
"What are you doing?" he asks.
"Hanging myself," Paddy replies.
"It should be round your neck," says the guard.
"I tried that," says Paddy, "but I couldn't breathe."
Three meetings to look at today. Port Macquarie will be pretty wet I guess, Seymour a bit damp but Townsville, we'll wait and see. I still have a laptop/Money Factory package left at $2995. That works out a good save.
Monday 18th April: I spent a lot of time yesterday studying the various footy games , bemoaning the fact that we were on a five game losing streak until the Melbourne Demons came good in the last quarter. A win in tonight's NRL game will get us right back on track with Money Factory. It was disappointing to see how some of our other best were going extremely well only to fade in the second half. Neither code is producing consistent results so far this year. The AFL is changing with different strategies focussed on defence although the Swans on Saturday night adopted a new strategy called "kick in hope" but don't mark the footy whatever you do. The NRL is wokring on a different theme. It's called "good luck with the ref's" as they chop and change their penalties mid game.
In both codes Class is starting to tell with the Melbourne Storm and St George showing theirs and in the AFL Collingwood and Geelong standing out in the pack again.
Meanwhile, a win and a second in the new Premium yesterday. Today three meetings but I doubt we'll do much as the rain will probably have affected two of them. We'll still find winners but it will be harder.
Sunday 17th April: I had a few bets for the Bank yesterday including a Quinella/First Four play on the Domcaster. I still don't know why I didn't take the Trrifecta. My First Four numbers included the Trifecta but when I took the Quinella I left the second horse out so scored a big fat zero. I did back Mr Unforgettable, he was the bet of the day once the conditions deterioated. My end result was a 2.5 unit profit. The Bank sits at $5463 after starting at $2000 on January 1st.
Greg Horm pointed out that had we applied his approach to yesterday's Racing we would have been on Morphettville Race 7 Goon Serpent, top rated by Winform, which was a Group Two race. Goon Serpent won at over $38. Grand Slam came back into the winners list too yesterday with a $18 winner Steel Zip. We have had many reports of Winform subscribers picking up huge wins this week. Readbet have paid out heaps. Not only do they payout on winners but you alos get 10% rebate on losing bets at discount bet odds..
Saturday 16th April: I was out yesterday (took Ros to doctors appointment) and forgot to divert the office phone to my mobile. We were delayed, of course, so when I did arrive back I had 16 phone calls to return. If I missed anyone you can catch me before midday today. Anyhow I had four bets in two races with one of those running second at $18 and then you beauty! A $17 winner. Problem was that the race was won by Dancing Time. Unfortunately there were two horses with similar names in the race and ours was Dancing Doll. Our other horse ran second so I thought I had also scored the Quinella. When I did arrive home I realised the error and had $4.5 k less than expected.
It gets worse. John Furgal supplies excellent greyhound tips and a few members have subscribed to these. When I checked my emails there they were. Two races for two winners, but yesterday's greyhound races were a daylight fixture. Bugga!
Todays Randwick meeting is now plagued by wet weather and a heavy track. That will make it much harder to win but erhaps the dividends will be better.
Friday 15th April: Sportsbet are offering $3 win odds on More Joyous tomorrow. The deal is internet only and between 10a.m and 12 noon tomorrow. Of course if you believe that you have a better bet you can back your selection at Sportsbet and if More Joyous does win and you run second you get your money back up to $100. I will definitely be taking that deal tomorrow. The money back second to the favourite applies on all the Group 1's tomorrow.
I lost the week's profit yesterday by focussing on the last few races at Hawkesbury instead of the first few but that's how it goes some days. I backedd four horses in one race and three in another and didn't strike even a place. Both winners were near the bottom of our ratings. It happens sometimes. Oh well, at least the footy is back on tonightand I do expect to win at Canberra today.
Thursday 14th April: If you didn't take the Daily Feature Race trifecta yesterday you will be kicking yourself today. Mr X explained to me yesterday that he sometimes spend hours choosing the Daily Feature. The $3000+ Trifecta yesterday was worth the effort and of course the $21 winner. Brian emailed me yesterday to advise that, because of his medical condition, his punting is restriced and so he uses Powerbet to back the top two in the Daily Feature Race. He would have loved yesterday's result. For the year to date he had made a 50% profit before yesterday.
Personally, I took out the race prior to that at Balaklava where at the last minute I noticed our top three were very worthwhile bets. In the end our top rated won the race but having deadheated, my collect was just $400 profit. Nevertheless, as I was working on the new strategies I ceased betting after that.
Around 30-40 members a day are reading the forum at bonzatips.com.au. but not a lot are contributing their thoughts. The good news is that the people who are contributing to the forum seem very genuine and not interested in getting into slanging matches with other members, the sort of behaviour which taints many other forums.
I noticed we scored the Balaklava Quaddie yesterday at $1500+. We have had mamy near misses with several venues over the last week having found the winner in three of the legs.
Today I am concentrating on Hawkesbury where there is a good track.
Wednesday 13th April: Nailing down single bets to invest on is a tricky business. Today all tracks except Ascot, are rain affected. We made money at Townsville yesterday and even landed the $1500+ Quaddie and of course, the Treble and Daily Double etc. Townsville was rated Good. It gives you a lot of confidence knowing that you have a consistent surface.
I haevn't found any selections that I actually like today. So that's a NO for SMS subscribers. It doesn't mean we back off our Powerbet or Money Factory strategies. That is beacuse we are now dealing with multiple selections in each race. On rain affected tracks, the order of the selections may change but not the overall, for example. A top rated horse, may drop to second or third rated. The third rated may rise to first or second rated but in general, the overal top three rated horses may not change that much.I do not favour investing on Heavy tracks with the New Winform Strategy. The statistics are overwhelmingly against it.
Tuesday 12th April: It's a bit of a downer when youve done all that work and the first two days produce zero selections. IT's bee a very hectic few weeks wth Ros being ill and the election work we were doing, although it is good that Ros is feeling much better now. Can you believe I completely forgot about my Bank? Yes the Bank I started back in January 1st at $2,000 which grew to $5463. I will start back on it Wednesday with the bet size a handy $69.
Yesterday there was no action with two meetings, one abandoned half way through and the other a heavy track. Today two venues are heavy with Townsville the one betting option. I might find a bet or two later today after al but no guarantees.
For newcomers I advise that I have one Laptop deal i.e. a new Toshiba Laptop loaded with the Money Factory Professional Edition software, a year's Winform Premium Subscription and ongoing support plus any books you need and the details of our strategy which has been amking as much as $1500-$2500 a week from a total bank of $20,000. Easier than running a coffee shop at $250,000 capital.
Monday 11th April: we've finally completed our study of the Premium selections since January 2005. The end result is that a number of factors have become moreobvious once larger numbers of selections have been studied. Surprisingly, Premium selections that had won their maiden race last start, were still very positive even though generally that is not the case.
Strike rate for the win is between 47% to 50% for all plans and it is not even necessary to refer to David Bendeich's rules, although undoubtedly there are improvements that would occur. There are no Premium selections today so the new selections will commence tomorrow.
Sunday 10th April: an extra 15% for Maxigold yesterday as Black Caviar continued her magic run and a race record on a rain affected track. I had a massive win with Hay List to run second to Black Caviar at $4.40. Hay List had a 88% strike rate 1st or second but we were offered 22%. I never expected to lose.
The Winform Daily Mail might have fallen short with winners on top yesterday but all that was forgotten as the last at Caulfield yielded a $200 Quinella. The Quinella strike rate yesterday was 42%. There were 26% Triectas but nothing significant with $747 the best.
Saturday 9th April: Sportingbet have a product called Maxigold. Today's significance is that presuming Black Caviar wins, Sportingbet is the best place to back it. as Maxigold pays a 5% bonus for every length it wins by, so ten lengths for exampe woudl be a 50% winning bonus. If I were backing Black Caviar, this is the way I would back it.
We had two weekend sports bets at the same time last night. One of those won, so a nice profit but in Money Factory how do we do this. Here's what I did. The bet (using a base bet of $50) was $89 folowing our loss last weekend. I bet both teams the same amount. The winning bet was entered in the results first and this cleared the current series. I then started a new series and overwrote the $50 first bet with an $89 one which is lost. Not perfect, but it will do. Had we won both bets it would have been a nice boost. We have two bets to go for the weekend and this weekend we took all teams outright and all four are the outsiders in their match.
Mr X was successful again yesterday as he suggested betting the top three. This resulted in a profit again. I am doing today's Daily Feature so watch out.
I mentioned the benfit of betting Quaddies in this week's E-News. I followed my own advice and took the Winform Top Five at Wagga and scored the $4,000 (approx.) Quaddie. You could have also scored the Treble Daily Double and Running Doubles which all paid well..
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Friday 8th April: Readers might have noticed that betting the Winform Top Two, three four or five does not make a level stakes profit. This is nothing new and could not even be expected.What you can do though, is use the ratings as a starting point and analysing other form factors, you can bet the most likely scenarios. You cna lso use the ratings in exotics as, for example, betting the top five in Trifectas finds 20% of all trifectas. You do need to be crafty thoguh as not all races make good trifecta opportunities. Better to take the risk in wide open betting races or fields of at least 8 or you risk getting less back than you outlaid.
My SMS play yesterday was a Patent at Iasbet. We won the first race but the next two selections both ran 2nd. A Patent consists of three single bets, three doubles and one three horse all up or Treble.
Today I'm hoping for a good track at Wagga, where I have several good chances lined up at good odds.
Thursday 7th April: Mr X is right on the ball again with some spectacular results including yesterday. The Daily Feature Race just keeps bouncing back. The SMS service did O.K. yesterday with our each way special getting third at $4.50 the place. I actually score $5 at Sportsbet on the early fixed price market. Had Biondi won I stood to collect $18,000 and as it was the $4,000+ was alright. Sportsbet is one of the few agencies offering fixed price place bets. It is alo one of the few that allows each way allups.
I have had a look at randwicks Saturday fields and admit to a bit of disappointment as far as value goes. The track will be wet, no doubt at all but maybe getting back to Dead. I see Moroney has brought Quarterbar to Sydney for the Carbine Club. It only rates third after last start running a disappointing third but there has to be a good reason for persisting.
Wednesday 6th April: Two winners yesterday was not enough to make a profit for our SMS subscribers. Lucarno was particularly disappointing. Today we have some good chances. One race has three selections. I am confident of being on the winner but the betting market may restrict our profit. I will probably run an all up through Parlay Magic. Cross your fingers. Our analysis of Google Analytics tells us that over 30% of all visitors read the Diary. We had 29,000 visitors last month.
A reader purchased all 19 editions of Horse Racing Australia magazine yesterday. We cut into our last bundles yesterday to fill the order, which at $79.95 the lot is a bargain.
Tuesday 5th April: If there was a prize for running second, then Grandslam wins it. Ony one winner last month but still ahead for the year. Best Bets had just 19 bets for 9 winners and Winform Gold 9 bets for 4 winners. Platinum Gold had limited bets but remains at 50% wins and 100% places for the past two months. Premiums had 37 bets for 15 winners and a loss of 5.3 units.
Here are the results for the Ratings. I note that average dividends were down.
Top Two 31% Av div $5.38
TopThree 44.2% Av Div $5.71
Top Four 55% Av Div $5.89
Top Five 66% Av Div $6.42
Betting the top five hit 43% Doubles, 28% Trebles and 19% Quaddies.
I guess I was being masochistic in googling Winform products and finding many different forum entries over the years. There was a lot of criticism from some quarters but what I noticed was that 90% of the criticisms came from people who a) have never subscribed or b) don't believe in any staking plan other than level stakes or c) used the product for a very short time and gave up. There was a lot of flack over my alleged failure to help a client with his computer when his program wouldn't load. The problem was a) the original program had been purchased many years ago and worked perfectly. The problem arose when the client couldn't get the program to load on a different computer. I don't understand how his problem was our fault. There is a solution and the problem is not with the program as it worked fine on his old computer and other computers. The problem was with his computer and to be fair he wasn't disputing this but other people on the forum were telling him and others that our service was crap and he should be getting a refund. Really? Everyone of our Members know that we are renowned for our excellent customer service but because everything remains on the Internet forever, the associated crap stays there. I guess the good par is that here were some comebacks from Members who were happy. The only problem with that is that then the detractors accused those people of being "plants". Oh well.
On a brighter note I do think there are some good bets today with two of the three venues run on Good tracks.
Monday 4th April: We blew our record with Weekend Sports when both bets lost yesterday. We felt confident with the Melbourne Demons who looked to be cruising in the first half but the Hawks came out with a demoralsiing third quarter. Two losses in a row is our worste losing streak so far.
Today two of the three meetings are abandoned with Warnambools seven race meeting consisting of two Hurdles, a race with only one previous starter and so just four races to look at. For the form purists this is an opportunity to focus on just four races but for those of us looking for turnover we might as well enjoy the day off.
We have found that Ros's illness is caused by gallstones. Luckily we have been able to get an appointment with a surgeon on Wednesday. Hopefully the problem will be rectified soon.
Sunday April 3rd: One of our primary elimination rules is to eliminate aged horses. That means we don't bet 8 and 9 yo horses at all and only bet 7yo if top rated. At Ascot Race 6 last night the top two rated horses were 8yo and 9yo but our 3rd rated horse was only 6yo. Mekong Miss won the race at $50.
Sepoy won the Golden Slipper but the scratching of the second favourite destroyed the winning price. I had one Member call me to say he stood Sepoy out from the field and scored the $19000+ First Four. He was very happy about this but on Unitab it paid $50000. Sportsbet is paying the best dividend until April 24th and he would have been better off taking his bet there. The same applies to all exotics for the Major Autumn Carnival races.
Weekend Sports has 100% strike rate so far this weekend. West Coast Eagles didn't need the points start against Port Adelaide. Using Money Factory Professioanl Edition we have a 18.9% profit on turnover so far this season.
We have a very good deal going at the moment. You get a Laptop, Money Factory Professional Edition preloaded, twelve months of Winform Ratings, Winform Powerplay, Winform Premium and ongoing guidance plus a copy of all the books you need for just $2995. You can enail email@example.com with your best contact phone number and we will provide any further information you require.
Saturday 2nd April: we've received the following from Queensland Racing. We thought it might be of interest.
DEAGON OFFICES – 1 APRIL 2011
RQL Stewards have today continued an inquiry into the running and handling of BOLD GLANCE in the McGuires Hotel Falvelon Handicap 1200m at Eagle Farm on 26 February 2011. Today Stewards considered further evidence from rider Bobby El-Issa, Trainer Mr Norm Hilton and part-owners Mr W & Mrs T Walsh and Mrs T Hilton. Further evidence was also taken from Mr S Fletcher.
After giving careful consideration to all of the evidence, Bobby El-Issa was issued with three (3) charges in respect of his handling of BOLD GLANCE.
The first charge was issued under AR 135(a) which reads:
Every horse shall be run on its merits
The particulars of the charge being:
- Passing the 200 metres until near the 100 metres when BOLD GLANCE was holding an advantage over ESSINGTON which was challenging BOLD GLANCE and when Bold Glance was responding to his riding, he deliberately and consciously stopped using the whip and otherwise failed to ride BOLD GLANCE with sufficient vigour.
- Leaving the 100 metres when BOLD GLANCE was maintaining an advantage over ESSINGTON, he again, after using the whip in a backhand manner on only two occasions, deliberately and consciously stopped using the whip and otherwise failed to ride BOLD GLANCE with sufficient vigour.
- Over the concluding stages of this event Jockey El-Issa’s deliberate and conscious lack of vigour in riding BOLD GLANCE resulted in BOLD GLANCE not being fully tested and thereby not finishing the race off at its best.
- BOLD GLANCE finished second to the winner ESSINGTON.
Further, and in the alternative, Jockey El-Issa was issued with a charge under AR 135(b) which reads:
The rider of every horse shall take all reasonable and permissible measures throughout the course of the race to ensure his horse is given full opportunity to win or obtain the best possible place in the field
The specifics of that charge being that he failed to take all reasonable and permissible measures throughout race 7 at Eagle Farm on 26 February 2011 to ensure BOLD GLANCE was given full opportunity to win in that:
- Passing the 200 metres until near the 100 metres when BOLD GLANCE was holding an advantage over ESSINGTON which was challenging BOLD GLANCE and when Bold Glance was responding to his riding, he stopped using the whip and otherwise failed to ride BOLD GLANCE with sufficient vigour when it was reasonable and permissible for him to do so.
- Leaving the 100 metres when BOLD GLANCE was maintaining an advantage over ESSINGTON, he again, after using the whip in a backhand manner on only two occasions, stopped using the whip and otherwise failed to ride BOLD GLANCE with sufficient vigour when it was reasonable and permissible for you to do so.
- Over the concluding stages of this event Jockey El-Issa’s lack of vigour in riding BOLD GLANCE resulted in BOLD GLANCE not being fully tested and thereby not finishing the race off at its best.
- BOLD GLANCE finished second to the winner ESSINGTON.
The third charge was issued under AR137(a) which reads:
Any rider may be penalised if, in the opinion of the Stewards,
- He is guilty of careless, reckless, improper, incompetent or foul riding.
The specifics being that Jockey B El-Issa, as the rider of Bold Glance in Race 7 at Eagle Farm on Saturday 26 February 2011, did ride in an improper manner in that he deliberately and consciously failed to exercise sufficient vigour on BOLD GLANCE inside the final 200 metres when challenged by ESSINGTON for the leading position, and he did so to ensure the success of wagers placed by an associate, namely, Mr Stephen Fletcher who had backed the winner ESSINGTON to win and had laid BOLD GLANCE.
After considering all of the evidence, Jockey B El-Issa was informed that the panel was unanimous in their rejection of his explanation for the manner in which he rode Bold Glance over the final 200 metres of the stated race. The live observations of Stewards tendered into evidence at the initial hearing were relied upon, and on the basis of Jockey B El-Issa’s experience as a race rider, and with the benefit of having watched Jockey El-Issa ride this and other horses in similar circumstances, Stewards informed Jockey El-Issa that they had formed a strong opinion that his actions over the final 200 metres were deliberate and conscious actions designed not to allow Bold Glance to run on its merits.
In forming this opinion Stewards had regard for Jockey B El-Issa’s body position on Bold Glance during the relevant period of the race. His position high over the horses back is inconsistent with his regular body position when attempting to derive the best effort from his mount. Stewards also paid particular attention to the lack of movement through his legs and through his torso which is identifiable in his riding when embroiled in a tight finish. Furthermore Stewards were of the view that the movement of his hands was an abbreviated movement inconsistent with a rider using vigorous hand and heels at the end of a race. Stewards also considered the fact that Jockey El-Issa did not turn the whip to forehand at any stage and used a minimal amount of whip on Bold Glance only striking the horse on three occasions in a backhand manner. This was viewed with attention to the fact that there is no specific prohibition on backhand use of the whip and no prohibition on the use of the whip inside the final 100 metres.
Each member of the panel has observed Jockey B El-Issa’s riding over several years and is very familiar with his ability to get the best out of his mounts whether it be through riding with the whip or by hand and heels riding.
Stewards took into account that Bold Glance jumped from barrier 1 and, notwithstanding the fast sectional times, enjoyed an easy passage on the fence behind the leaders. Bold Glance was afforded clear running at the top of the straight and trailed to the outside of Tierqualo until near the 200 metres. The manner in which the race was run and the way the race presented itself favoured the chances of Bold Glance and on this basis Stewards were satisfied that Bold Glance had the capacity to respond if fully tested.
For these reason Stewards found Jockey El-Issa guilty of the charge levelled against him under AR135(a).
Stewards made no finding in respect to the alternate charge under 135(b)
In finding Jockey El-Issa guilty of the charge of improper riding under AR137(a) Stewards relied on the reasons expressed to establish Jockey El-Issa’s guilt in respect of the charge under AR135(a) and had regard for the fact that Jockey El-Issa and Mr Stephen Fletcher are associates and drew the inference that the failure of Jockey El-Issa to run Bold Glance on its merits was for the purpose of ensuring the success of wagers placed by Mr Fletcher in the stated race whereby he backed Essington and laid Bold Glance.
In drawing this inference Stewards carefully considered the bet history of Mr Fletcher through the betting exchange Betfair. In the opinion of the Stewards, Mr Fletchers bet history illustrated a concerning level of confidence when laying horses ridden by Jockey El-Issa. This is best represented by the fact that Mr Fletcher’s ten (10) heaviest risks on Thoroughbred Racing in Queensland when laying horse were all horses ridden by Jockey El-Issa and the abnormally high success rate of Mr Fletcher when laying horses ridden by Jockey El-Issa which stands at above 90%.
When considering the circumstantial evidence of this case against the evidence consistent with the explanation offered by Jockey El-Issa, Stewards were satisfied to the requisite standard that the charge was made out.
Stewards also issued a charge against Mr Stephen Fletcher under AR135(c) which reads:
Any person who in the opinion of Stewards has breached or was a party to breaching any portion of this Rule may be penalised, and the horse may be disqualified
Mr Fletcher was charged with being a party to jockey El-Issa not allowing BOLD GLANCE to run on its merits in race 7 at Eagle Farm on Saturday 26 February, 2011the particulars being:
- Jockey El-Issa rode BOLD GLANCE in a manner to deprive it of its real and legitimate opportunity of winning the race in that after passing the 200 metres when BOLD GLANCE was challenged by ESSINGTON, he deliberately and consciously rode Bold Glance with insufficient vigour which resulted in the BOLD GLANCE not being fully tested and thereby not finishing the race off at its best.
- Mr Fletcher wagered on ESSINGTON to win and laid BOLD GLANCE such that Jockey El-Issa depriving BOLD GLANCE of its opportunity to win the race to permit ESSINGTON to win assisted you to obtain a financial benefit of in excess of $30,000 and retain a stake of in excess of $55,000.
- Mr Fletcher was aware of jockey El-Isssa’s intention that he not run BOLD GLANCE on its merits.
- Mr Fletcher made jockey El-Issa aware of his intention to back ESSINGTON and lay BOLD GLANCE.
- At all material times Mr Fletcher, a professional punter, and Jockey El-Issa were close associates.
After hearing submissions from Mr Fletcher Stewards adjourned the matter to enable Mr Fletcher to submit further records of his bet history.
Trainer Mr N Hilton and part owners of Bold Glance Mrs T Hilton and Mr W and Mrs T Walsh were informed by Stewards that their attendance at the inquiry was appreciated and were thanked for their cooperation and forthright evidence which greatly assisted the inquiry to this point.
Friday 1st April: This is no fools day. I have one race in particualr targeted for today but it depends on track conditions being ideal. I noticed that overall Members betting at Readbet and Betezy had good results for March.Readbet's discount betting approach is hard to beat and eeps even losers in the game for longer.
Go to Bet Now to see all of the bookmakers we deal with. During the Autumn Carnival there are many extra offers inclduing plenty of money back offers if your horse gets beat. I'll try to organise a summary and send it out with the E-News later today.
Thursday 31st March: We still think Sepoy is the best horse in the Golden Slipper. Saturday will tell us if he is able to handle a rain affected track as no amount of good weather can give us a good track from this point. Just remember that there is no such thing as a good thing in this type of race.
I didn't need anyhting done with my knee, it is just a case of wear and tear so I am not getting my money back. Ros is still sick, nothing serious but debilitataing just the same when you want to throw up all day. Mat, at least is still in work and is doing a good job. I am keeping my fingers crossed on all fronts.
We had some new Members yesterday, a couple are off on a bush jaunt for Winter (back in Spring) and I now have to look for some more of those new 32bit computers as interest in the Winform /Money Factory package has been quite good.
This afternoon I take Ros for an ultrasound and new round of blood tests but will be well and truly back for the big races of the day the Weetwood and the Toowoomba Cup. These are the main races I will be focusing on today.
Wednesday 30th March: *****EXTRAORDINARY OFFER FROM IASBET*****. If you back the Golden Slipper Favourite Sepoy and he runs 2nd or 3rds you get your money back up to $100. It's an offer worth taking as we will probably have him top rated still.
Those Members who are subscribing to the Delta SMS service are eligible to get free greyhound tips and these are very very good. If that's you please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Wednesday 30th March: If I've done it right you can see the figures for a basic Winform Strategy for the last week. Profit on turnover is less than 4% but $1174.60 profit has been made. This morning I am going to be laet again. Ros is still ill and I have an X Ray to get on my knee. I will be back for the races though.
Tuesday 29th March: Ros hasnt been well and so a late start today as I have had to take her to the docs for some of their magic pills, although they haven't worked so far. Anyhow, I reckon I have two winners from two races today including a Platinum Gold, which is a new selection method (available only through Premium or SMS) that has a 50% win and so far this month a 100% place strike, although I'm sure that won't keep up. There aren't many bets as a Good track is essential.
Greg Horn tells me he has just had one of his first losing months for some time but with the Autumn Racing hotting up, that should be rectified very soon.
We have just one Laptop deal left. $2995 includes the strategy, Winform ratings for 12 months, and Money Factory Professional Edition preloaded and set up. It is probabaly a saving of well over $1,000. As I said we now have only one left. Call me (02) 43592779 if interested.
Monday 29th March: It hasn't been a great month and as I look today I see one possible bet but there is a field of just six and she is backing up too quick in my opinion so I'll leave it go.
The weekend sports bets ended two from four but how much bad luck can one team have? The Newcastle Knights yesterday lost five players to injury and then the refs decided to ping every error they made. They still managed to put a up a solid performance in the second half but at least three of those injured players will be out for many weeks. Worst loss of the round? It woud have to be the Western Bulldogs or are the Bombers really that good?
Sunday March 27th: Now that the NSW State election is over life can get back to some semblance of normal. Well Friday and Saturday was sort of normal. All my win bets ran 2nd or 3rd!
The combined tally of my son in law plus the liberals was enough to unseat the Labour incumbent. Unfortunately at the last minute the Liberals pulled the preference deal thay had arranged which meant that Labour held onto the seat they have held for 117 years and now it will be 121 years. Shayne has made a great impact and will have a good chance next time.
As I advised everybody, Sonia Hornery held the seat and at the $1.18 on offer was the best bet I will ever see. I hope a few Members took advanatge. Weekend Sports bets has two out of three so far and of course the Money Factory I set up is in front.
I'll catch uo with the E-News tomorrow.
Thursday March 24th: Iasbet has been getting my bets on the phone this week due to my being on the polling booth. On fixed prices they have been providing SPG which simply means that if the price I take goes out at start time I get that better price. It certainly makes life easier if you are taking a fixed price hafl way through the betting. Phone betting at Iasbet is available on a toll free number for bets of $50 and up.
Three days to go and Saturday night the Election party. We'll al be rooted after a hard day handing out "How To Vote" cards. Volunteers for this necessary task are hard to come by and we are still two or three volunteers short for this Saturday. On top of that my expectant daughter was rushed to hospital yesterday ( looks OK now but in until later today getting tests) and of course that took out my son in law for the day and night as well and I spent my night at the hospital too.
We just hope Shayne gets a good showing in the vote after all the hard work. A lot of lessons have been learned so next time we willl all be better prepared. Who would be an independent and have to do without that party machine support? He deserves everyhting he gets if he eventually gets there.
The horses were unkind yesterday too to top it off. This week on Weekend Sports we have the AFL kicking off but we are being cautious in this first round.
Wednesday March 23rd: I don't know what made me do it but yesterday before I left I turned off my computer and disconnected it from the Internet. While I was out we had a lightning strike which may have fried it like the last time that happened. I also had to turn around and bring Ros home as half way to our assignment at the Prepoll station, she became ill.
With two heavy tracks, heaps of acratchings and only one viabale race meeting, it was a day fulll of difficulties but the amazing Mr X found the Quinella in the Daily Feature Race, and a good one too.
The recent weather makes today another difficult day but I see it as a challenge. The good thing about Wednsedays now is that Iasbet provide prerace fixed prices so by 10 a.m. you know what you are getting if you win. A number of Members have told me that after being stuffed around by other betting agencies or being banned, they have gone back to Iasbet as the one they know will treat them right. If your bets do get rejected initially on the Internet, you can simply call on the toll free line and get on. No need to miss a bet because the Internet is not going right. Good luck today.
Monday 21st March: The liberals have cancelled their preference deal with my son in law in the Wallsend electorate in the NSW State election. In doing so they have guaranteed that the existing Labour Member Sonia Hornery wil be reelected because even with a 20% swing against Labour she will have enough votes to win without preferences. At $1.18 Sportsbet it's almost a licence to print money. Oh well, at least he should run second and it is his first attempt. IT will be interestig to see how many votes he gets. We are hoping for 30%.
No betting for me now until the election is over.
More abandoned meetings today. When will it end? Thre meetinsg were lost yesterday resulting in only 19 races eligible for the strategy. Ten of those races were won but that was a ctach up after a horror day Saturday. The New Year Bank had all losers but no serious damage.
Sunday March 20th: I've sent a special edition E-News regarding the Winform Strategy and Money Factory. I'm not interested in selling the strategy, I've made that clear but anyone who has the commitm15ent required may purchase it.
The Weekend Sports has had just two wins from six instead of our usual expected four wins from six. On level stakes we are -1.5 units down or -$15 on a $10 bet. Using Money Factory we are just one dollar down. Bonzatips.com.au is operated by one of our Members and includes a forum for Racing and Money Factory and Powerbet owners.
This week I am out and about but I will have the phone diverted and I will be monitoring emails. Right now I am in a downpour and the roads out of here are almost impassable but tht will pass soon enough.
Saturday March 19th: Im doing Saturdays update early as I am sure members would like to know what happened. Well it was almost a relief but I have to say I was unlucky. I doubt whether most people would have stayed up to bet al the WA races thursday night which might have eliminated four or five races. In brief I busted my first Money Factory Bank and only the second I have ever busted. The sad thing is that out of the next five races there were three winning races including one that paid a dividend of over $10 when the top three rated horses were all double figure odds. In fact in that race the Trifecta boxing the top five Winform horses paid over $10,000. Then there was a flurry of winners which eventually bring the results back to the norm.
I guess one problem I alway have with a new method is that nobody would believe that every day is a winning day even though most are. The other thing is that I process all the bets to see what happens overall. Nobody will bet every race everyday and so the runs you have may well miss the big losing runs or the big winning races. The trick is that it all comes back to averages and eventually you will always end up with the same results once you have sufficent numbers of races and bets.
Friday 18th March: No gloating about yesterdays result. Profit is just $43 but then followed a sequence of just five wins from 31 races, including the current sequence of thirteen losers. A bank could be lost, reducing our profit from well over $2,000 a week since February to $1500 a week but hey! It is too early. A few weeks ago we reached this point but won two of the first three races the next day then proceeding to pick up the loss and $900 profit on the day. I hope that happems today, although I will miss the first few races due to physio.
I don't even have to bet today if I don't want to as each race stands alone. After processing over 4,000 races the strike rate remains at about 43% at $2.34 which is about square (less any rebates for bets placed at Readbet) and a solid profit on turnover of just under 8% using Money Factory.
On the other Bank. I missed Wednesday but chipped in at yesterdays Newmarket meeting with five losing bets. This was from two losing races and an all up. The Bank sits at $5463. Still a good result after starting at $2,000 on January 1st.
The E-News I sent last night did not pick up the Iasbet attachment for the Ranvet Stakes. Just click here to see the Iasbet bonus offers for Saturday.
Thursday 17th March: A massive result for the strategy yesterday with $1055 profit and a small carryover to today. There were eight series closures, all going nicely green. The Weekend Preview will go out tonight. The Weekend Sports Bets are online now.
I had a call from Steve late yesterday and he is using Money Factory for his sports bets. He only bets propositions that are at least $1.90, just like the Weekend Sports Bets. His worst run of out so far is just three but I told hm I had easily survived eight outs. There are hundreds of these propositions so you can find these types of bets and have a bet every night if you want. The trick is to avoid watching the games as you can get into a sleepless cycle with most events taking place in our sleeping zone. Last night I missed the alarm as there was a game I did want to watch and now I am upset I missed it even though the betting outcome was in my favour.
If you are not yet a Member you get access to our Weekend Sports Bets (we average over 60% wins at $1.90+ or better) for just $149 for the year and that includes our Winform Best Bets on the gallops plus the Weekend Feature Race (which we won again last week). Subscirbe via the online store (to the left above) and rememember, no need to log in to purchase.
Wednesday 16th March: To be honest, I too thought yesterday was a waste of time with just one meeting after the other two were abandoned. The Strategy pulled in five wins from the eight races so it would have been alright. Better than alright actually!Good luck today.
It's midday and I am catching up. Mondyaywe would have made $315 and yesterday $217.30, that's over $500 from four meetings.
Tuesday 15th March: Trevor Johns confirmed that he has backed his longest priced winner ever thanks to his Chapter five or Chapter six horses with a $300 winner recently. I am looking at five copies of Trevor's $295 book and truly that is it. Imagine, just $1 would have made back the cost over the last thee days. Email garry.robinson@y7mail with your interest and I will call and get your credit card details tonight.
Monday 14th March: Well the Newcastke Knights scraped it in by a mere 42 to 8 and lead the comp after one round. They are in from $30 to $16 in the Premiership market. We have one win from two with the Sportsbets and one game to go so let's hope for two out of three and a handy profit.
Yesterday showed only $286 profit for the Winform Strategy. I have one special offer today. I have a number of Toshiba Laptops preloaded with Money Factory Professional Edition software and one year's Winform Ratings plus of course the strategy. All up cost is $2995. If you are interested email email@example.com with your contact details and I will call you to discuss.
The Strategy is well and truly proven after over $15,000 profit from just February and March to date plus the workouts for July last year, and November showing similar levels. Only my December workout has been less exciting but then it is still profitable, even after losing one of the three recommended Banks.
Sunday 13th March: So I had a carryover of $1800 on Money Factory with the Winform strategy. What happened next? Well it as a tough run for sure but at the end of the day we hit $1100 profit which if you add yesterday is $500 a day for about four to five hours work each day. My divisor ( users know what this is) got out to 13.4 which is probably close to the highest I have seen and my bets size got out to $400 but then we had a nice winning sequence producing $1.90, $6.40 and $5.90. Now the first win was on the last bet before divisor change and the program suggests " repeat last bet or change divisor?"I always repeat the last bet as I feel that we don't reach that stage unless we have had a bad run so therefore another win is more likely (we hope).
I had time to put my bets for the Bank on yesterday and boy did I hit the jackpot. I tagged ontot the selections for the SMS subscribers and made 4.15 units profit but I also hit the Daily Feature race for a 6.5 unit profit ( I left the 8yo and backed the next two). BANK HAS REACHED $5463 and bets of $69.
i also took several all ups, five races bet altogether and did these thorough Iasbets excellent multi set up. I won three races and ran second in the fourth. Like last week, a result here would have multiplied my winnings substantially. I also took the First Four in the Australian Cup and took the top two Winform horses to win (left out the 8yo but included in the places) from the top eight. I placed my bet at Unitab which had a nice jackpot scoring $2k more than the other two totes at $12000+. My all ups with a biggest bet of $20 returned me $7623.
Today you will probably think I am mad. I am off to Penrith to watch them play my team the Newcastle Knights. It is 3.5 hours each way with a busload of Knights supporters, so we can celebrate or commiserate together.
Saturday 12th March: John Furgal is a long term Member who has a tipping service but he also has started a forum for Winform Members to discuss aspects of Money Factory and Powerbet.
Speaking of Money Factory, the new strategy has a carryover of $1800 today. Now that's a stern test. How will we go today?
Friday 11th March: Over $300 profit again yesterday fo the new Winform method, almost enough to pay my electricty bill. I don't believe I have received all the offers for Australian Cup weekend so I will delay the E-News and weekend Preview until later. The Weekend Sports selections are up and I expect all three bets to win. Thursdays will be busier from now on as the experts report in.
Thursday 10th March: See above for the winner of the $1,000 Flight Centre Voucher and congratulations Ivor. I know many Winform subscribers know of Ivor with his attendance at several Winform Seminars over the years. Our SMS subscribers took a bath yesterday after a strong start to the week but today we bounced back with one bet for one winner. Our E-News overnight will include any special offers for the weekend.
Yesterday while Ros and I were climbing the Harbour Bridge (great experience by the way, and do it at night it is coller and more spectacular) the boys were racking up $390 in profits with the new strategy.
Wednesday 9th March: We'll notify everyone of the winner of the above promotion tomorrow afternoon. I am out of the office and away from email until tomorrow afternoon but will be contactable by phone.
Yesterday the new strategy made $290 easily with just Cessnock and Warnambool to work on. David Toulson has been working on a flow chart which defines the strategy and it covers just about every possibility. It will make you dizzy at first but once you are used to it it is easy.
You may recall that I went back to December to do a workout and found a glorious Bank Bust. That's a loss of $6,000. By December 15th however, that loss had been overcome and the Bank was back in front by $598. Not a lot you say? Well February with real money has just made over $2500 a week, the first week of March has made at least $2,000. Now when you consider we are using a total of $20,000 (three banks of $6,000 plus a little spare) that's fantastic as even a Bank of $2,000 would have made $200 which could be reinvested to build up.
Brenton Burford has proved the figures with similar profits for July last year,Ken Henderson has had results like that with the first two weeks of November last year and to be honest, we appear to be past the "testing" stage. Now the interesting thing is that everyone had one difference whihc depended on the location of the favourite in the Winform Ratings but the results were remarkably similarwith every workout being in the mid 40%'s and average dividend between $2.30 and $2.50.
If we look at blocks of 100 races rthe strike rates varied between30% and 60%.
Now another thing. The strategy to date is blind i.e. use the Winform ratings as your guide and ignore everyhting else. This means even novicec can run the strategy, however, more experienced punters will see other options as they go along, they will spot obvious no hopers (even some that are near favourite) and avoid these plus of course some are able to get much better prices having many more accounts.
Tuesday 8th March: The Readbet promotion closes today. It's your last chance to register for the $1,000 prize so click one of the links above.
The Money Factory took all day to clear as there were only two meetings (don't do Geraldton as no fixed prices from the track available) but when it cleared it cleared big time. Money Factory users know all about the Green Screen, well yesterday it hit Green at $802+. The New Winform strategy sits at mid 40% and average return per race $2.33.
The SMS subscribers were happy yesterday with three bets for two winners at $4.80 and $22, the other runner ran second to the $4.80 shot to make a $8.90 Quinella if you had taken it. I should point out that there are no vacancies for the SMS longshot service.
It's 6 a.m. and after finishing this I am off for my annual set of blood tests and then Ill do what I usually do. Tear the form apart looking for a likely good priced winner.
Monday 7th March: I'm driving around the streets of the Wallsend State electorate this morning from 5 a.m. hauling a trailer load of vote 1 Shayne Connell posters (he's my son in law). Yesterday I had my flu shot and bugger all else except watch the Money Factory fail to clear the bank, however, not far behind as the last at Bunbury kicks off. Both strike rate and dividend are down for Sunday and I've never seen so many longshots get up that were not in the Winform group.
Here are the rest of the February results. The exotics are in the E-News I sent last night.
Winform singles for February. These are part of the Winform Daily Mail and are marked WFM or WFQ.
30 selections 10 won Plus 6.5 units.
Grandslam which is also exclusive to our Winform Daily Mail
29 bets 15 won +55.9 and some subscribers did even better than this.
Best Bets 26 9 won -5.3
Ratings Top Two 32.6% av div $5.66
Top Three 44.5% av div $6.19
Top Four 54.5% av div. $6.40
Top Five 63.5% avdiv. $6.71
Sunday 6th March: A couple of disappointments yesterday. Our yacht Bundy On, beat only four yachts home in a field of 30+ and then when I arrived home I found that the thrid leg of my parlay had run second, robbing me of $12k, however with two legs in I did win 2k.
The Money Factory procured another $460 on the new strategy yesterday and thanks to the hundreds of hours put in by myself, and Brenton Burford, David Toulson and Ken Henderson, Geoff Wright and others, the strategy is takining shape as I make adjustments, tweaking the process here and there to create a more certain overall picture.
The Bank had a handy profit yesterday and the Professional Staking Plan reached a new bet of $61. Upwarsd and onwards as they say.
Saturday 5th March: ** I've personally rerated some of todays Feature Races** Subscribers who use GTX should check the ratings files." The Money Factory could not turn a profit on Thursday and so we carried over to today and over $900 was won without too much trouble. Today will be a challenge once again and I hope E-News readers take advantage of the money back offers sent overnight. I will.
When Zedi KNight won the last at Moonee Valley i collected $10k from my all ups. It is the first decent collect I have had for a few weeks. As I said to a client during the day "tthat's the problem wiht all ups and exotic bets...you never know when they are going to get up".
I had been too busy with other things on Wednesday and so had no bets for my little $2k Bank but although I didn't have an all up with it yesterday I did bet on the selections I sent to my SMS subscribers. We had just four bets for two wins at $12.30 and $10 so 22.3 less four is 18.3 units profit and at the $97.50 unit stake that is $1784 added to $3679.50. The Bank is $5463 and at last I have hit $5k. From today I am using the Professional Staking Plan as it is a lot more senesible approach. As a result my Bank nis split into a reserve Bank and an operating Bank and my new base bet is now just $50. That's $52 per bet plus $50 to spend on any exotic bets i.e. a combination in a race of Quinella Trifecta or First Four. They will be small flexi bets.
Friday 4th March: This morning I am heading in for a vehicle service. Juts one of the many mundane things that have to be done. I'll still make my calls and be back in the office in time for the races this arvo although I have only found one worthwhile bet and that is in the Cup at Port Lincoln. The filed is big and luck will be needed but the reward is a $12-$15 winner if it comes off. Tonight I will have a weather eye on Moonee Valley as I have a definite play there.
Thursday 3rd March: Five days left before the draw for the $1,000 Flight Centre voucher. It's for all Winform/Readbet members and so your chances are very good compared to most competitions where thousands are involved.
The New Winform Ratings/Money Factory strategy is working well and yesterday a profit of $373 was made. This was without taking any rebates into account so it could have been even better. Brenton Burford has all but finished July 2010 and for a base bet of $20 has made over $9,000 on a 44.6% strike rate which is no more than average. This compares to February betting live at 43.2% so the figures are good. I see no reason why users of the plan could not simply bet on any day they wish and have a good chance of coming out in front on the day. It wo'nt happen on all days but most days it would.
Wednesday 2nd March: You never know when it will hit you. Standing in the street with Ros and my mate Col we were hit with a mini cyclone that unroofed houses, borught down trees and nearly blew us away before we scrambled into our cars. It was sudden and unexpected. With all our expertise and resources, the scientists can barely predict the weather, let alone the climate. I think as form analysts we are doing a great job by comparison. That siad there was nothing to get excited about at yesterday's two race meetings after Townsville was abandoned.
Today we at least get five meetings and I have some interesting selections with the last at Kensington (Randwick inner track) the one that could produce a big result. I will have a couple of bets at Port Lincoln and Perth.
Tuesday 1st March. It is Autumn: My major goal has been achieved. This morning I weighed myself. 79.95 kgs. In 1988 I was 80 kgs. and upset with myself but then went on to add weight almost every year since to reach 91.5 kgs. last October. Ros and I went on the kick start diet and each lost 4.5 kg.s n the first ten days. It is not a diet you can continue beyond that because it becomes unhealthy to sustain it.
Since then it has been like my Bank balance , up and down but slowly dropping. Up at Christmas, down afterwards. Up when I go away for a two day break ( the after hours acrobatics don't quite make up for the increased food and alcohol intake). However, now I find I can happily have a beer of an afternoon (one) and a nice steak and vegie meal without going up. My body has simply reached a point where it knows when it has had enough. Sort of like having a losing streak isn't it?
Yesterday the New Strategy won $192.50 and there were only two race meetings. So well over $11,000 profit for February and even if a Bank had been lost ( a Bank is $6,000) the profit of $5300 left is more than accceptable.
So maybe that's not interesting if you don't have that size Bank. What if you could only have three Banks of $600? Well that's $1130 profit for the month plus you could add that back to the Bank to help build it up.
February Results For Premium. These are tote results. Betting at Best Price returned a small profit.
Bets with rules 43
Strike rate 44%
Av div $2.06
POT -3.81 units
Monday February 28th: Ros has been playing with the computer and has made some changes. Buggered if I know what she did but she pressed something and now my mouse won't work. I am stuck with the keypad mouse and it does some strange things.
Anyhow, yesterday was another big winner for the strategy and the Money Factory. Profit for the month is $11193.70. I can't claim that the strategy always works however, as I have done the 1st to the 11th of December last year and using $50 base bets I managed to bust a $10,000 Bank ( although three more races would have cleared the series). With wins along the way though that loss was $6285. You can see why I insist on having three Banks for safety. Strike rate for December to date was 42% (compared to 45%) but the average dividend was the same as now. I'll continue.
Only two meetings today but one of those is Cessnock. I will have a good look.
Sunday February 27th: I've never seen so many winners for such a poor result. Grandslam and The Winform Daily Mai had a great day with four winners from nine selections. The winners were shortpriced this week. The icing on the cake for subscribers was Caulfield Race 9 where we scored the Quinella at $17.70 but the Trifecta with our top rated horse running 3rd, paid $2349.
My Bank took a beating as I didn't have this one and I lost 11 units or 1072.50 and it stands at $3679.50. There were two long shot seconds that would have made all the difference. I lost 6 of those units on the Oakleigh Plate as I though Eagle Falls wouldn't have won with a start.
Mat has lasted two weeks in his new job. Here's hoping. I want him to make it to Easter so he gets to experience a paid holiday. It will be the first of his life if he makes it.
The Money Factory series hit the front after just the first three races yesterday, winning two of them. At this stage I could actually experience a bank loss and still be over $3,000 in front for the month. We are approaching 1000 live races bet. Enjoy your Sunday.
Saturday February 26th: In the Barrier book (available for less than $100 from the online store) it advises us that for races like today's Oakleigh Plate the bias is towards the outside barriers. It is information like this that rewards those who pay for the information. We have it $7 the field so you want a good price about whatever you back because standouts in this type of race are rare. Faster Son has drawn barrier 16 with the scratching of Star Witness and with 75% wins looks each way value.
We'll probably get the Quaddie today but Sepoy, a really strong chance of winning the Blue Diamond but at prohibitive odds, will kill the dividend if it does salute.
The Money Factory is at a divisor of just 3 for today with three races before the next divisor cuts in. The bet sizes are up. Race strike rate yesterday was only 28% but the average dividend at $2.35 was on target.
Friday February 25th: A small winning day so far. If you have an eamil account on bigpnd you didn't get yesterday's newsletters. At this stage I don't know how to solve that problem.
I do know how to make horses win though. Simply try to get on and find that the race has been closed and away he goes at $13! Nevertheless I do get on a $7.90 winner that clears the bank. I have a few bets at Moonee Valley tonight. Wish me luck.
There have been quite a lot of winning Quaddies including Ballarat this week $17000 and Bunbury $5600. I reckon we might even get a Quaddie up at Moone Valley tonight.
The new Winform method made a solid profit yesterday and today and we are headed to $8,000+. Brenton tells me that hisi bank looking back at July last year has reached over $6,000 and that using only a $20 base bet.
Thursday February 24th: ***** AT LEAST HALF OF ALL OUR EMAILS BOUNCED YESTERDAY AND THAT IS PERMANENT*** Why?? Because I liked the book I was reviewing and told people what a pleasure it was reading it and how much I enjoyed it. Apparently the word Pleasure, the word Flight, the word Bookmaker etc are all high spam words. Even words that relate to ordinary health. Bugga Bugga Bugga. Anyone who didnt get the email review of the NRL book today, you need to "allow" our email addresses or you won't get any more mail. (who siad "hooray"?)
8.6 units profit for the Bank at $97.50 that's $838.50 and the money comes back to $4752 now to surge ahead. I just can't break that $5,000 barrier at present. I checked my rebates from Readbet today... over $700.
I have had to send out two Newsletters today, I forgot to send the bonus offers from Iasbet but they are on their way now along with more detail about the money factory progress.
Wednesday 23rd February: I have just closed the latest series with a small profit. The last 163 races supplied only 68 winners or 42% which is well below the usual. The average dividend was just $2.04 and that was well below also. Level stakes was -14.32% for the series But Money Factory Professional Edition made a profit of just half of one percent and without rebates from Readbet which could have amounted to thousands. Today I found Readbet a disadvantage but that was mainly because most bets shortened in the market. I did not have many tote bets.
Seriously. How can anyone say level stakes betting is the only way to go? Our subscribers know what works, they use Money Factory or Powerbet to collect.
Tuesday 22nd February: I am away today but will answer any phone messages tomorrow. The current Money Factory series, as you know, I am doing without the 10% losing bet rebates offered by Readbet. I have turned over $25,000 since Saturday and the series is at - $3800+, howver had I taken rebates I would have received $2077 back and actually, long before I reached this stage I would have been in front. Man what a difference! I am on 36% strike rate and only $2.06 in dividend averages so both race strike rate and average dividends are down. More of that Wednesday.
Monday February 21st: Headed off early this morning back about 10 a.m. so any calls please hold off til then. Did you see Bathurst Race 5 yesterday. Winner $35, Quinella $168.90 TRifecta $2290 ($5383 Unitab) and First Four $20,489 ($29k Stab). At home we got a severe lightning strike which out me out of action the race priro to that and didn'tget back on for a couple of hours. I hope some of the subscribers got on. I am sure they did.
The current Money Factory workout picked up quite a bit today and now back to 36% strike rate. Divisor is down to 4.2 with 2 bets to go in the current series. We need an early winner. Noe dn't forget to get your entry in to the Readbet competition. So far only 20 Members have registered so the chances are very good. We do have quite a few of our Members have accounts but maybe they have just been slack.
Members who have subscribed to Grandslam have been telling me today that we are back in level stakes profit so with just three losing years in the past 20 or so we have actually covered last years losses and back big time. Let's hope it keeps up.
Sunday 20th February: Grandslam as provided in the Winform Daily Mail has struck back and recovered all of the losses of 2010 and hit a profit fro 2011. Five winners yesterday including the extreme of $1.40 Black Cavier and $12+ for Diplomatic Force. The new Winform strategey was both successful and unsuccessful winning at a solid strike rate early in the day then just 14 winning races from 49 for the second half of the day. So where does that leave the Bank? The current Money Factory series (remembbr we are already over $7,000 in front) sits at a divisor of 12.8 which is the highest we have seen after nearly 1600 races and the series is currently down $2788 so less than half. I have to also say that I hit the decks after sailing 4th of 20 and starting my punting at the 40th race and finishing before a late winning streak of five in a row last night
The Bank I started in January 1st had one of it's worst days wth a loss of 7 units Plus one more on the all ups. Not one single return of any kind yesterday so -$780 and we stand at $3914.
Saturday February 19th: I hate giving back money when I've won it but that's what happened so far this week. I simply could not find a winner yesterday. The New Winform strategy was another story though. With live cash testing plus back checking with assistance from Brenton Burford and others we are rapidly heading towards 2000 races and the results have settled at 44.5% winning races and average dividends arond $2.30. That means it makes money at level stakes i.e same number of dollars per race. The average profit using Money Factory is closer to 12%. Brentons workout shows $2.40+ but this is because he is assuming a 10% rebate on losing bets from Readbet. His Money Factory profit is as much as 19% POT.
The work continues but it all looks soundso far. Have a great day punting today.
Friday February 18th: Brenton's workout for the first week of last July has reached $3561 profit Strike rate is 44.6% and average return per race $2.41. Betting the same amount on each race made 7.5% and using Money Factory 22.18%.
My own figures using actual real live data show $6977 profit since last the 7th. uisng a base bet of $30 on a Bank of $6,000 I am also working my way through last December and January and can report my average race strike rate is 44.7% at 4% level stake and 13.77% using MOney Factory, however in my workouts I am not taking the 10% Readbet rebate into account and that highlights the difference between betting with and without this generous offer.
Today the races start at 12.30 AND go through until 10.30 tonight. Surely I can find a bet or two later. Also today, after King Island had it's first TAB meeting we have Kangaroo Island today. To date we don't give credit for King Island racing so ratings based on previous events there do not rate, however 95% of all the form is SA based.
Yesterday I got caught outas a rainstorm reduced Hawkesbury from a Dead to Heavy. I wouldn't have bet had I expected this. Bugga!
Thursday 17th February: You'd think backing a 100/1 winner would be exciting. Well it is until you realise that having backed it in a dutch bet situation it is meaningless, well almost. Normally I would not have backed it at all but a quick look at the form revealed that it was a genuine chance and that the boookies had made a mistake. The race was ordinary and at first glance a 12th of 14 second up at Morphettville last November looked ordinary until you realise that the horse was beaten just 2.5 lengths after being on the pace to the turn. I only looked at the race as it was a C Plan race with our top rated horse $5 in a wide betting market. My hope was with that horse and I merely took the longshot each way hoping for a place. The race also fitted in with our new strategy and required me to back three runners in that race.
I admit I did get a thrill out of it, even though my total investment was a mere $16 including the place component. That on a day where I invested about $6,000 altogether so you see the relevance.
My day's action on the New Year Bank was more interesting with a win on Zedi Night which I backed at the early odds of $10 giving us a 3 unit win on the day or $262 to improve the Bank to $4694. That breakthorugh to $5,000 is proving elusive.
Today's E-News includes how to win $1,000.
Wednesday 16th February: I am up at 4 a.m. running through last Decembers figures which were not looking too flash and then after another four races the Bank hits a $613.70 profit. Thta's not bad for one day. Yesterday's real time result was a profit too, not as much with only two and a half race meetings (Townsville was abandoned half way through).
I had an enquiryfrom Paul Grasso which basically asked why teh onine Newsletters stopped at Winter 2010 and my answer was that all Member updates are now in the Diary. It's an amazing number of peoeple who read it each day but it is more amazing the amout of people who never ever bother to look Maree is a long term Member who recently had a few weeks in Miami. The first thign she did when arriving home was to check the diary to see what has been happening and whther there have been any new strategies or information. That's a sensible approach and we had a nice chat about things to follow up.
I hope to have a profitable day today. There are some good bets if the track condtions and odds are right. I only had a couple of bets yesterday, actually three bets for one place. Two units down basically. Mr X couldnt find a Quinella or Trifecat yesterday but his advice was bet the top three runners in Warnambool Race 6. The top rated horse won at $9.60. Nothing wrong with that.
Tuesday 15th February: Yes I did forget my Monday post. The Money Factory betting plan is well over $6,000 after Sunday and Brenton Burford is going to review July last year to give us a look at what happens in a wet month. Yesterday was also a good winning day for the plan. So far so good.
I had a call yesterday to tell me how well Powerbet and the Winform Top Three had performed over January. My figures show December should have been good too although there was a dip in the middle of last year but that has to be encountered. Overall it should just keep winning. It's hard to resist backing those longshots though isn't it?
We will have $1,000 to give away later this week, exclusive to Winform and ???. It's really simple. You go to the website, which is being set up right now, and you enter your account number. How good is that? And it is free. Hopefully details will be on the website and in the E-News on Thursday. The winner is announced first week of March and because it is our exclusive, the chance of winning is good.
Our various dutch betting software programs are being phased out in favour of our sottware pack which includes all of them. Consequently we are giving them away this week to any new subscribers to the Winform Ratings or selections services. First in best dressed and first choice of what is available. We'll include anyone who's subscription expired before July 1st last year so you can refire up your enthusiasm and get the bonus. These programs normally sell for between $69 and $149.
Sunday 13th February: The final figures for the week for my new method was PLUS $5197 and this on a $6,000 Bank. I recommend you use three banks just for safety, so after one week betting in every race (and I bet an awful lot of these with rel money) we have built an extra bank.
Were we "lucky"? Well, a little but it's all part of the plan. Our bet size built up to $440 for the last race of one series when a horse we entered at $15, blew out to $40+ best tote and cleared the series easily even though our dutch bet method only allocated a relatively small bet on it.
So Typhoon Tracy came back to form yesterday? I cautioned Members to include her in multiples even though her recent form only put her among the chances and all of those in the ratings abover her failed miserably.
By the way. I have decided that all Winform Ratings subscribers who also have a copy of Money Factory, will get a complimentary copy of my new book when it is released. It's only fair after all that I support those who are in effect, supporting Winform.
The Bank lost 2.5 units yesterday. so -$244. My Trifecta in Typhoon Tracys race only got back a bit over half my outlay. The Bank now stand at $4432.
Saturday 12th February: I wasn't sure what the reaction would be to yesterday's "rant" but it's all positive. In fact I have received over thirty orders for the new book and I have not yet put pen to paper, however I have bet about 200 or more bets and raked in thousands from a base bet of $30 and Bank of $6,000. The Bank is currently at -$923 after just four winners from the last 16 races but before that it was 37 from 77and the average retrun remains at $2.40+. For those who already use Money Factory, the divisor is 5.2 with 6 races before a divisor change.Three winning races from the next six will probably do and four most definitely.
The Autumn Carnival is well and truly upon us so good lcuk today. Those who use Greg Horn's method most certainly will.
Friday 11th February: Just got this from Danny after he read today's diary. It reminds me that the specialoffer on Money Factory and Powerbet ends today i.e. pay $990 for the new SMS service and get your choice of those software items for free.
Well said on today’s diary Garry. I’m so glad I got the Money Factory software after eyeing it off for months. I have some very basic selection methods that have always hovered around break even with a good strike rate and this software is doing the job very nicely thank you very much. Bring on that new book! Cheers Danny
I am onto something new. This week to date there has been A 52% RACE STRIKE RATE betting just one or two horses per race. Yesterday the strike rate was only 40% but that simply pulls the totals back to 50% which is almost exactly what I expected. I even went back to July last year where most of the races were on bloody wet tracks and got similar results. So including yesterday the profit this week so far is about $2400 on a $30 base bet using Money Factory. At this stage I am actually betting and made $5,000 yesterday althoguh I did bet bigger BUT it was at level stakes.
My thoughts are that I will put together a new book detailing all the action both ways and providing it for genuine interested punters only. I won't waste my time with those people who are happy to buy everything we have to sell for free. I anticipate I might tread on a few toes in saying that but for example, I had one fellow who rang me up expecting me to confirm that if he took my ratings he would be sure to make a profit betting all the bets he could place at over our rated odds. It doesn't happen and will never happen, not for me or anybody. Others call and ask for results and can I prove it, well after having results and feedback on the website since 1995 I simply couldn't be bothered giving them the time of day anymore. I have more than enough very happy customers than to have to be bothered with such crap.
What you can do is apply a logical strategy with a proven Staking Plan and the money to see it through, no excuses and no bullshit. Anyhow, put it this way. A Coffee shop franchise costs about $240,000 and up, requires 70-80 hours a week input by the franchisees and makes between $20,000 and $80,000 a year if it actually survives and makes a profit. Reality is they are in it for the landlords and the franchisor.
So here's what I think. A Winform franchise which would actually make say $100,000 a year for 5-6 hours a day should be worth at least the same but you know what? I reckon maybe $1,000 up front for the iinfo, $50 a week for the ratings and $1595 for the software has to be a bargain. Aftre that you get what you put into it.
I'll spend a bit of time putting all the figures together and at the same time look back on the data base at random intervals over the past two years. My gut feel is that it does indeed work although I am relying on Readbet discount betting to make it all viable. Howver, if they reduce the rebates I am sure some other corporate will offer a similar deal , it is a very competitive environment these days.
Thursday 10th February: Last nights Hong Kong selection was a no bet as it had to be favourite to qualify. It was, instead, a long shot and no go. The SMS selections yesterday resulted in four bets for a $3.93 winner and three of the best placed. In early betting yesterday $4.80 was available about the winner at Iasbet wich shows the value of betting early.
Our Bank lost one unit ($103) yesterday as I invested in an all up which did not come off.$4676 is stil O.K. A reminder that the SMS bonus offer i.e. a free copy of either Money Factory or Powerbet (click the rightside menu for details of these programs) is avlable with a 12 month subscription to the new SMS service which has been achieving near 50% winners.
I returned to the twilight sailing last night but alas, after a 3 minute penalty for running third last week we could only come in12th.
Wednesday February 9th: A nice double digit winner yesterday. Today looks alright too.I tried Money Factory using the Readbet 10% discount betting yesterday and that worked well. For MOney Factory users here's how to do it. When entering the race result you will see a box marked amt bet on late scr. in the dutch betting window. Put the reabte in here as it doesnt affect the strike rate. You can also use the dutch bet window for single bets, just enter the one horse and calculate bets which just takes the total to be bet. This way the refund does not affect the strike rate.
For single bets or each way or place bets you can enter the rebate as a dividend, however this will show up in your reports as 100% winners which is why I prefer using the dutch bet window. Anyhow, on my first run through I bet 50 races, two horses per race, including the favourite, for a 46% strike rate (less than normal) but a profit of $567.50 on a $30 base bet. My worst outs was seven but one sequence was 2 from 12 but the bank was never in danger. One race produced a return of 5.3 but all the rest were around $2 to $2.50 effective.
What I found was that by getting the rebeat it reduced the size of losses making it easier to recover and clear the series. At 46% that is about 9% lower than expected. I am uisng a bank of $6,000 overall so you can see how it is possible to win a whole bank in a litle over a week if that performance kept up.
Tuesday February 8th: Back to mid 20's yesterday, a welcome relief. The skin on my finger tips isreairing itself, I just avoid fluids etc. but how can you? Anyhow I am typing one fingered, the one that isn't damaged.
David Bendeich came up with one specila ta Scone yesterday and I thought it lokked good too so on I jumped.Unfortunately Dasman failed to cooperate and came in fourth behind our third rated horse. I evn popped a $97 bet on it for the Bank so now $4779. I suppose I should have used the Professional Staking Plan and maybe it's not too late. I'll have a look at that later. In the meantime I owe one bookie $4219 and another one owes me $5300 but while the $5300 has been taken out of my account it hasn't yet landed in my bank account. Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul. I've sent a query and hopefull it willbe resolved today before bookie A gets worried.
Monday February 7th: A week into February already. I picked up $2k yesterday at the Sapphire Coast meeting where for some reason Winform always does well even though it was a bit damp. We had our own mini cyclone here at Mannering Park yesterday and everything I had put on the balcony is now in the middle of the lake, mainly my old clothes out to dry ho ho. After twenty minutes or so it was all over except for some welcome rain and a cool down after successive 44 degree days.
If there any SMS selections ( the new one) they'll be here on the diary this arvo. I have no proposed selections for todays meetings whch are not usually good for us.
Sunday February 6th: Put the bets on then sailed yesterday arvo. On the last leg the genoa luffed badly then ripped on. The sheet (rope) ripped through my hand taking strips of skin with it and leaving me with severe blistering. After a few hours icing it up it is bearable, just.
The Bank. Well I put the SMS bets on and the $10 fixed I got for the place on Steel Zip made a handy profit of 3 units so $225 back in. I also checked that race and stood it and the next two rated horses form the next few to score 62$ of the Trifecta for another $616 courtesy of IASBET. The Bank now stand at $4876 and new bet of $97. I am still asking myself why I didn't take the Quinella as well as that paid $62.
I also bet for myself the SMS selections for the new SMS service which includes NZ and Hong Kong races and enjoyed the $5 fixed price on Milo. So two from four between Friday night and Saturday so it is keeping close to the 50% win strike. I wouldn't be surprised if those who were on our free trial, decide to pay up for the year now and get the bonus copy of Money Factory. All enquiries to firstname.lastname@example.org.
After all oir trouble yesterday in 44 degrees and 35 knot winds, we were first past the post only to find ourselves disqualified for a starting line infringement.
Saturday 5th February: Tough day yesterday with rain cancellations and the same may apply today. I had expected wet conditions at the Valley and had chosen horse to suit but never got the run. I can't be sure that Racing will even start at Caulfield let alone survive a full meeting. At Rosehill it will be very hot. A tough day looms. I'll be putting whatever bets I have on early.
You know you can't keep a good system down. The Bolter has made a good profit over the last fifty bets both win and place but those fifty bets have taken over a year. You sure have to be patient. The Bolter was released over 16 years ago and still works today. Amazing! It is included in the book Best Australian Horse Racing Systems and in a past issue of Horse Racing Australia magazine. The book is just $29 and past issues $10 posted. They are available at the online store.
Friday 4th February: I don't know about you but I definitely had a case of heat stroke yesterday, partially cured by a beer or two. No actually I was flat out processing orders for the new SMS service, especially the $990 offer which included the Money Factory software as a bonus. Of course it's a good deal, especially as it is the ideal tool to use with a service that boast a 50% win strike, even if the prices are short. I just didn't realise what a good deal it was until the orders started coming in. I won't be taking orders at this ridiculaous price for ever but I will accept up to twenty more as that is the exact amount of Money Factory discs I have on hand. Email me email@example.com with your contact phone so I can get your Ccard details or arrange for other payment options such as direct deposit or money order. For those who have started there are likely to be two SMS today, one for the afternoon meetings and one for the twilight/night meetings. Aren't Fridays wonderful?
CASHBACK SPECIALS FOR THIS WEEKEND
Saturday, 5 February
Rosehill Race 6
If your horse finishes second to "Hot Danish" in this race, we will refund your bet (win-only).* Hot Danish must win the race for this special to be valid.
Sunday, 6 February
Sale Race 6
If your horse finishes second beaten by up to and including a neck in this race, we will refund your bet (win-only).*
Thursday February 3rd:
A tough looking group of bikers were riding when they saw a girl about to jump off a bridge so they stop.
The leader, a big burly man, gets off his bike and says, "What are you doing?"
"I'm going to commit suicide," she says.
While he did not want to appear insensitive, he didn't want to miss an opportunity he asked "Well, before you jump, why don't you give me a Kiss?"
So, she does and it was a long, deep lingering kiss.
After she's finished, the biker says, "Wow! That was the best Kiss I have ever had. That's a real talent you are wasting. You could be famous
Why are you committing suicide?"
"My parents don't like me dressing up like a girl......"
After a winess day yesterday I needed a laugh. In one race I was on 2nd and 3rd, both at big prices and our 4th rated horse won. In that race we had the Trifecta and First Four in the top five...$3440. After watching all but two of the selections miss I crewed in a twilight yacht race where I had better luck. With just two crew we came third out of a 20 strong fleet. I did have one miss and it was a fortunate one. I forgot to put my $75 bets on for the bank and missed a $600 loss, but lets put it in anyway. That would have dropped the bank to $3435.
Winform Best Bets were at 47% wins for just 3.2 points profit with a lot of short priced ones getting up. Premium bets in total had a 41% Strike Rate and 3.65 units profit. Using the Rules the strike rate was similar but that included a couple of rules that have proven unprofitable over the past year. Winform Gold had a successful year but have started off with just 2 wins from 12. The Winform Ratings figures for January are good though.
Top Two 33.5% at average $5.42.
Top Three 47.4% average $5.80
Top Four 57.2% average $6.11
Top Five 67.4% average $6.48 Doubles 45% Trebles 30.6% and Quaddies 20.6%
IASBET 10% BONUS BET: As promised, my bet for Sat on this is Sandusky City Caulfield Race 6 12.
Wednesday February 2nd: We've always done well at Seymour but the last meeting was disappointing. That was not the case last Saturday while I was away.
Yesterday I bet early but quit after making a solid profit. It was a good move as there were no further winning races. It is always a contentious issue, to quit or continue but while you might miss extra winners you can't lose by taking a profit. This is the strategy I use with the C Plan for example.
Today we are entitled to expect some good results and I will make full use of the early market fixed prices. These are of a great help if you want to bet the C Plan, for example, but can't sit and wait to watch the prices prior to the race.
Tuesday Feb 1st: Back to work and flat our already. Ros and I had a good weekend although I was diappointed to find out that I had missed Whitefriars at around $6 on Friday night. Our clients were advised to back this horse at its previous two runs, finishing placed both times. I expect that a few might have followed up.
Today I am endeavourig to catch up on the 289 emails that arrived over the past four days but I will be in the office to anser your calls.
Friday 28th January: Thisis my last post until Tuesday as I head off for a four day break. The Treble at Ballarat yesterday paid $1086. Regretably I wasn't on it. I had just the one each way bet and it returned my money back so no change to the Bank which stand at $4035, just over double where we started on January 1st.
Next week we are launching our new SMS service Delta 1. The good news is that it is free to start for all Readbet account holders who are Winform Members. In other words, if you opened your Readbet account through the link on our Bet Now page or through the Diary or in our E-News, you will get the selections, which have a 50% strike rate, free until the end of February and then at a discount rate afterwards. There are approximatley 20 or so bets per month and to get organised simply email to firstname.lastname@example.org your Readbet account number (for verification) and your contact details including the mobile number you want selections sent to.
We'll sort through the emails Tuesday and get you started Wednesday. Bets are mostly here, New Zealand and Hong Kong with the possibility of adding Singapore which is still being assessed. A few of oru Members have already been "crash dummies" and they report that the 50% win strike is fair dinkum and that Money Factory is the ideal tool even though it does makea steady level stakes profit. As for Readbet, we tested all of last year's Premium bets and found that although it was a losing year on level stakes, had we taken advantage of the Readbet discount betting rebates , we would have made a handy level stakes profit.
Thursday 27th January: The gremlins are out of the system, thank goodness. Nice Treble at Ballarat today.
I noticed Mr X got a small Quinella in yesterday's Daily Feature. I scored 7.57 units profit so the Bank returns to $4035.75 which is encouraging. Had I used Readbet yesterday (mostly bet best fluc elsewehere) I would have added a rebate of $26 from the losing bets.
To win a free copy of the Belhus Girls Racing calendar see yesterday's diary. I may have just one or two bets today, if at al as there are two day meetings follwed by WA and then Launceston tonight where I am lookng at the Lisetd race and one or two others.
Wednesday 26th January:
I finally got around to going fishing this morning but after a while I ran out of worms.
Then I saw a King Brown with a frog in his mouth, and frogs are good bass bait.
Knowing the snake couldn't bite me with the frog in his mouth, I grabbed him right behind the head, took the frog and put it in my bait bucket.
Now the dilemma was how to release the snake without getting bitten.
I grabbed my bottle of Bundaberg rum and poured a little rum in its mouth.
His eyes rolled back, he went limp, I released him into the lake without incident, and carried on my fishing with the frog.
A little later I felt a nudge on my foot.
There was that same snake with two frogs in his mouth.
Mr X scored a good win in yesterday's Daily Feature. My one bet couldn't even run a place. Disappointing but luckily I got 10% back from Readbet. That was $7.50 back on my $75 bet . The bank dropped to $3468.
A full field of races today so plenty of action.
Free Belhus girls Racing Calendar. Peter Morley is giving away 50 Belhus Calendars worth $19.95 each. For your chance to be one of the winners go to belhusracing.com.au. Peter is a great bloke and we actually gave a Seminar to his clients in Pedrth a few years ago. Peter is a WA based Racing syndicator.
Tuesday 25th January: Yesterday I bet six horses in three races for one $6 winner which sadly paid just $4 on the Tabs. That's hard to figure. I got the SP so square for the day and for those watching the betting $7 was available.
I have had many Members ask us about Hong Kong and NZ selections and we now have such a service coming up. It wil be supplied on an SMS service which we hope will commence in the next week or two. Cost is $990 per year but it is available for $99 per month and if it doesn't make a profit the first month is free. No need to rush in. When the service is ready you will be advised. The service also includes the cream of the crop of Aussie races too.
At least one good bet coming up today if scratchings and track conditons are as expected.
I got this email from Readbet. I thought it was a good email as it was unexpected.
Your Readbet Cashback has been credited
Your reference ticket number is LTK*******X. Please use this code in any further communication.
I am pleased to confirm that your account has been credited with your Readbet Cashback Special.
Please note that your Rebate has been calculated as follows:
· You placed a bet of $250, for which you have received a $25 discount rebate.
· $100 of this bet was eligible to receive a Cashback special - as you have already received a $10 discount for this portion of the bet ($100 x 10%), your account has been credited with $90.
· In summary, you have received:
o $115 back to your account, credited as $25 in rebates + a further $90 for your cashback special; and
o This means that the $100 portion of your bet has been fully refunded, and that you have received the 10% discount on the balance of the bet ($100 + $15 = $115).
Should you require any further information please feel free to contact our customer support team.
Most corporates and certainly not the TAB would bother to send such an elaborate explanation. My rebate was deposited within 72 hours as per their promotion promise.
Monday 24th January: I am away from midday Friday until the 1st of February, a rare break but it is our aniversary (Ros and I) . Everything will go on as normal except for the SMS service.
I created the Winform Ratings in 1969/70 and developed them further in the 80's and with the assistance of TRB's then programmer, revamped them in the 90's. Since the 80's I have been acknowledged as one of the best form analysts in the country, well Winform ratings are in any case. It is a fact I have to remind myself of when the hard times hit as they have recently. I see it as a challenge to lift my game, especially after Saturday when I lost seven units of the Bank which has now backed off to $3533. Yes it is $1533 ahead of the starting bank of $2,000 on January 1st but it is time to move forward again.
On another note. Last Friday, the only two winners for the SMS plan were Unitab rated 1 or 2. Just when you thought we were on to something. Of course the Unitab 1 or 2 do lose overall but they also have a strong strike rate, as you would expect.
Sunday 23rd January: Put my bets in and headed off to crew on Bundy On yesterday. Didn't back a wainner and came last in the yacht race after nearly running aground. Our SMS subscribers were on a certainty beaten at $21. It ran 2nd at $5.40+. I am told that overall our Members won big time at Readbet yesterday and why not when you get your money back 100% on some horses and 10% on the rest. Tomorrow's another day.
My son Mat has volunteered to go to Queensland to help rewire flood affected properties.Hope he does well.
Saturday 22nd January: Could hardly find a winner to save my life yesterday but the discount rebates at Readbet saved my day plus a couple of late winners. I am heading out to crew on a yacht ina marathon race this afternoon so I have all my bets on including my money back at Readbet if my bet loses in Flemington Race 6. I took one small all up and didn't have time to work all the combinations properly so you know what will happen. Good luck today. It will do me good to have a break away from the action today and tomorrow so I can be fresh for Monday.
Friday 21th January: Sorry about the spelling, my mouth's still numb. Had to get up at 5.30 to get to dentist at 7.15 a.m. then to old office to move desks and finally home at 9.45. Peter C, one of our SMS subscribers took otu the big winners from the service and studied the rest and came up with some interesting conclusions. Horses that were selected that were rated 1st or 2nd on Unitab were expensive nett losers. Now I analyse most of the selections myself and don't take Unitab ratings into account at all so should I not give these out, even though it would mean bigger runs of losers. I looked at all of last year's top three Winform selections using most of the Top Three eliminations and would you believe? The nett loss for Unitab 1 and 2 on Tote odds was 29%. That's incredible.
Peter also noticed we lost badly on NSW Country and Provincial races but a study of last year's total data says this is an anomaly. Long term they are fine. The other rule Peter applies is "no bets if rated more then tenth on Unitab" now that is definitely the case but this is also where the long shots lie, except we haven't had any but I am hoping we will.
Yesterday it seems as though Seymour was overwatered with Good track conditions not returning until Race 6. There are three afternoon meetings today and three twilight meetings. I guess I will find a bet somewhere.
I've loaded up my Readbet account for a real fling to see if Readbet and discount betting really is the way to go. Overall the figures are well in favour of our Members. Tomorrow enter the promtion code CS220111 on the My Account page at Readbet and get up to 100 cash back if your selection loses in the Kensington Classic.
Our Weekend Feature Race is the Kensington Classic at Flemington and there are several chances. Getting a guaranteed return on one of them really helps your chance of winning. The first win bet you place on the race is the one that counts.
Thursday 20th January: I sure came undone with my Bank yesterday. Five bets for five losers and the allups down the drain as well of course. A loss of $455 and the Bank drops to $4058. Cant complain of course but disappointing.
Today I am expecting a track upgrade at Seymour where I am hopeful of a winner and Gosford should produce something. The week started with some good results and high expectations, maybe we can end it on winning note.
We still have a few copies of that Special Offer left, the free book we discussed in yesterdays E-News.
Wednesday 19th January: My day came down to Swift And Dapper missing out by a lip at Grafton but it was not all bad news. I spent one unit of the Bank on a Quinella and Trifecta, $30 on a flexi box in the Daily Feature Race and scored a nice Trifecta and Quinella which I was able to put $4.5 per combination $521 won on the Trifecta at Iasbet and $242 on the Quinella to build the Bank to $4513 and now I can afford bets of $90 per race.
Today I am looking for fixed prices on a couple of runners as yesterday was an intense day, with sadly, less than perfect results otherwise even though anyone opertaing the Winform top three Powerbet had a great $43.65 winner which was only $21 fixed price in what was a very ordinary race. I also gave up Townsville due to the state of the track but that didn't stop us getting a $11.80 top rated winner. Good luck today.
Just one note. The number of Winform Members now betting at Readbet has doubled since the weekend and why not? On one Feature race next weekend you get your money back if your selection loses. can't best that!
Tuesday 18th January: A good winning day for me and the SMS subscribers and Powerbet top three users. Today looks interesting too. I have had plenty more feedback about Readbet and those who get the Winform E-News are already aware of next Saturdays money back offer. You simply can't lose when you bet a horse and if it wins you win but if it loses you get your money back. If you missed the offer you can email us email@example.com. and we'll send you the offer.
I spoke to Warwick yesterday and he is someone who is highly selective and bets three runners a race, wins just under 50% of races and makes a clear profit. His turnover over the past Racing season is about $160,000 so far and while discussing Readbet's discount bet we worked out that he would have made almost double his profit if he had been with Readbet but of course it wasn't around then.
I spoke with one of our Members from South Australia who bets the C Plan and rarely has a losing day. Of course the same applies to him. Betting two horse and $100 per race, only one can win and even with a 50% minimum strike rate that means in two races there is one winner and three losers. If you get 10% rebate on the three losing bets it simply adds to your profit. Now I'm not sure if Readbet is happy to take on Winform Members after they have paid out 30% more to our Members than they bet overall but I'm sure that we represent less than 10% of their clientele so if anything we are providing a lead for them to follow.
50% of the price of all online orders is being donated to the Queensland Flood Appeal until Jan 31st: Thanks to all those who have placed orders so far. I'm run off my feet but but promise all orders will be despatched each day, it's a lot easier than cleaning up after a flood. I know what it's like. We had over 2 metres of water up the walls in 1989 and again in 2007. Luckily now we are ten metres above the water.
The Race scheduling today leaves me a bit cold. We start at 12.30 but the last race is 6.18and with only four meetings the day is really stretched out. I'll probably try to make my money early and take a break although I don't want to pass up any winning opportunities either.
Junkmail: Yesterdays E-News went to most people's junk mail. It might be wise to check your junk box so you can mark us as a safe sender. It's a bit tough that you can't tell people about a good deal.
Monday 17th January: Another family day yesterday but those without obligations had a brilliant day with the Powerbet and top three strategy. We received some excellent comments about the new Readbet discount betting site and here's just one of them.
Thanks for pointing me to the new Readbet site.
I found it easy to use, soft on the eyes, and the prices on offer reasonable.
I had my $100 on Karuta Queen, so it was a good result at $3.89.
As well, I get 10% back on my losing bets!
I used the site all day, and signed up another 2 family members.
They were on Pepper Jet, but hey! they get their $100 back!
Any action today will be determined by track conditions but with little or no rain predicted there should be plenty.
Sunday 16th January: I took advantage of many offers yesterday. Anyone who doesn't take advantage when the bookmakers arte generous is not giving themselves the best chance of making money and really, isn't that what it is all about? Anyone who took advantage of the Readbet offer yesterday either won, if they bet our third rated horse Karuta Queen or go their money back if they bet anyhting else. The Milllions was our Daily Feature Race yesterday and Belle fiund the Trifecta. I thought Mr X had erred in selecting a Flemington race for the Weekend Feature but he though that on Thursday wth doubts about the track and horses getting there Flemingotn was best. He was right and scored the $9 winner the Quinellla, Exacta and Trifecta and the First Four.
My Bank got underway again yesterday and although it was another winning day it was disappointing. I took two horses in each of three races with Schiffer each way as the last leg. All in all there were 16 combinations to be bet and it took half an hour just to put the bets on. I actually made a mistake and put one combination on twice.. The disappointment was Rosehill Race 5 where King Lionheart could only run second. This made the eventual profit $200 but could have been $2,000 had Kin Lionheart held on. I also bet my first Gold Coast bet at Iasbet and got my money back and ended up one unit in front on my single bets. The Bank that started January at $2,000 has risen to over $3750 and now my base bet is $75. I scored the Magic Millions Trifecta but gave that away on the Quaddie and Treble where I had two out of the three legs. Of course I only took a percentage.
For Powerbet and Winform Top Three users the day was as brilliant as it gets with Femina Fashion again proving her class and providing another highlight.
Saturday 15th January: I got caught on a sticky wicket yesterday and heavily backed two horses in the last at Wagga all up and straight out. The second leg of the all up ran 2nd but anyhow. Wagga was downgraded to a Dead 5 and by an amazing coincidence both of my selections were duffers in the wet. Worse still, the $10 winner is O.K. in the wet and so it proved.
On a positive note, we have had a great offer from the new discount betting website Readbet. Today anyone who places a bet up to $100 on the Magic Millions, gets their win or if their selection loses gets their money back. Now that's a good offer. Simply click here for details.I have had a lot of disenchanted punters lately with several bookmaking firms so maybe it is worth giving Readbet a go. It won't cots you anyhting and I reckon the offer of 10% rebate on all losing bets (applies to their discount betting which is on every horse, greyhound and harness race in Australia) is unbeatable. You need to enter a promotional code to get the offer. It is CS150111
As for the Magic Milllions, my money back bet willl be on Schiffer if it runs. Schiffer is at good odds of around $7 but there are plenty of other chances.
Friday 14th January: Powerbet users had a good run with the Top Three strategy again yesterday even though we lost two meetings through the day. Today we have good tracks at Wagga, Cessnock and Canterbury tonight and I will be concentrating there. Melbourne is waterlogged as is Mornington.
I felt I was a bit unlucky yesterday, particularly losing a close photo at Penola, they must take those photos from past the post, that's the only way I can explain it.
Thursday 13th January: Slack of me to miss yesterday's diary but I was doing intense form study and then like everyone else I was following up with friends and relatives in Queensland's flood areas. Luckily, everyone is okay. To assist, we are donating 50% of all sales through our Online store (see lefthand menu) until the end of the month.
Racing wise yesterday was a good day for Members using Powerbet.
We apply a 20 point penalty to many horses each day for various reasons but, particularly for my personal study and for Quaddies (we scored the Murray Bridge Quaddie yesterday at $4326) I may revise those. One penalty is for horses not having run in the past 21 days as I believe that over 1300 or more, horses need to have a solid recent run. I then look at some of those horses penalised to see whether their past racing pattern may support a reversal of that penalty. I'll expand on these penalties in future postings.
Today we are looking at Gosford as our best betting option and perhaps Bunbury.
Tuesday 11th January: Today's Newcastle meeting is a hybrid of two northern rivers washed out meetings. Virtually none of the horses have ever run on a track like Newcastle and none of the horses have been "set" for any of the events. Horses have been flaoted to Newcastle as a response to help jockeys get rides, trainers to keep their horses fit anf owners to get a chance of picking up prizemoney. Expect to see "surprise" results.
Our Winform ratings will still work because they are based on how fast horses can run but we could get every winner or none.
I ight have a bet or two later in the afternoon at Wodonga which is a normal meeting that all acceptors have planned for and anybody who takes on Queensland meetings at the moment deserves what they get.
Monday 10th January: No worries with the Daily Feature Race yesterday which explains the low dividend. Nevertheless it is a win and alot better than a loss. Only two meetings today and if I have a bet I will know about it as soon as scratchings are in.
I have had more adverse reactions to corporate bookmakers and the TAB this week than ever before. The Sky Channel 2 problem is simply not going to go away in a hurry due to Racing signing itself away on long term contracts. We are getting to bet on meetings which previously were not even covered but do we really want to bet when even small bet backs can destroy any perceived value we may think we have? It is something to consider. One of our long term Members has had his account closed because he won $6,000 over a period of several months yet others who regularly win $2-$3k per week are maintained. Who makes these weird decisions?
Sunday 9th January: We're taking my Dad out for a seafood lunch today to celebrate his 85th birthday. His body is weak but his mind is in top condition so it's all good. My Dad never followed any sport, never had a bet and no interest in horse racing but I am one of seven children, one of which died shortly after birth. I guess he didn't have time to do any of those other things.
Now read this and weep. Mr X did the Weekend Feature Race and he recommended leaving out the top rated horse, which was an 8yo and including First Command in the exotics. Unitab had a First Four jackpot. Following the advice of Mr X you would have scored the First Four at $14000+ for a full unit. Plus there were some sensational results in the Winform Top Two yesterday and Powerbet users would have been ecstatic.
My Bank was boosted by two wins from eight selections at $6 and $9, so 7* $60 profit is $420 and the Bank kas hit $3429 for a new base bet of $68 maximum per race. I wish I had taken exactly the same selections for my real betting, which is at a much higher level but I invested heavily in all ups and missed linking those two winners.
Ray emailed to advise me of the Quinella and Exacta at Glen Innes yesterday. It was our top two rated horses and the Quinella paid $546 and Exacta $1534.
SOFTWARE SALE: All of the Winform software is half price until 5 p.m. tomorrow but only if ordered from our online store. When yougo to the online store please ignore "login". This is an error on the page. For promotional code simply put 50/50 so I know you are responding to this.
COMPUTER PROBLEM: Yesterday Belle had trouble with our dedicated laptop and no matter what she did after it suddenly closed down on her, she could not reboot it. I then had to load up what she had not done and Belle had to collect our other PC, bring it home and set it up in time for the midday update but guess what? When she went to plug the PC in she noticed that the laptop power cord was not right into the power point. What had hapened was that it was operating on battery and simply went dead. I can't repeat what she said but it wasn't "have a good day."
Saturday January 8th: Just noticed I didn't post yesterday.I did notice that the Winform Top Three had some great results yesterday, including a running double at Mornington that paid $426. There were several other good winners.
I have reviewed the first four months of the SMS service and noted a strike rate of 31.5% for Saturday races and for Midweek races ...31.5%. While it is in profit the strike rate is below the standard I set for myself of 35% to 40%. Ironically, in seeking "safer" races for the clients, I may have inadvertently stopped the flow of longshot winners, although that wasn't the case last Saturday.
I was speaking to David Toulson about this and I said "The way it is going I would be better off selecting races at random", and nominated Canberra 7 and 8 and Port Macquarie 6. All three races produced winners at $2, $6.40 and $25.60.
The Winform Daily Mail produced three winners yesterday including an $11.90 winner at the "Sunshine" Coast and the Daily Feature found a Quinella. David asked me about the "Bank" and he was right I hadn't had a bet since Wednesday so I then decided to bet the running double at Canberra. For a $45 investment I got back just $61 but that's a $16 profit to take the Bank to $3009. I have a few investments in mind for today.
Thursday 6th January: I actually sat and dutch bet three races in a row yesterday with my basic Bank betting 2% per race from the $2668 after last Saturday. In the first at Randwick I backed the top three including the winner Brazen Babe, but made only $75 profit. I was too slow getting on at Doomben where I would have scored another winner. At Geelong I saved on the third horse as it firmed dramatically with a couple of minutes to go and our Top Two were at double figure odds. Iridisente won by an opening 4-5 lengths. I made just $20 on this race. I bet our Daily Feature Race at the early odds for a $50 profit. Mr X had recommended betting the Top Two. So with $145 profit in hand I quit for the day. The Bank had reached $2813. After dinner I checked how the Ferrara method was going for the day and found there were no winners but there was one more runner to go which coincidentally, I had previously given out to our SMS clients.I bet $50 for a $180 return and $130 profit as the bank hit $2993.
I had hope for a better result at Geelong yesterday overall but it was not to be. Better luck today maybe. Wyong looks like a good meeting, Seymour usually produces winners for us and Albury is due for a good result.
I noticed a mistake with the Premium results yesterday and have now corrected this. I really believe results would have been much better if it hadn't been such a wet year. As it is we came just about square. Subscribers using Money Factory have reported making profits and wiht such a high strike rate for most of the year that is no surprise.
Wednesday 5th January: I am glad I skipped yesterday, although the day was not without winners. I've spent hours this morning updating last year's results which overall are very good for the Ratings, Best Bets, and Winform Gold. The annual single selection results are based mostly on relatively small numbers and Grand Slam which had it's first losing year since the early nineties still maintained close to the normal strike rate. It was the average dividends that let us down with few double figure winners. I'm hoping for a good result today. In the meantime, David Bendeich is working hard on the Premium Rules review which will be provided to all current Premium subscription subscribers as soon as they are available.
Tuesday 4th January: We started with three meetings today but not surprisingly, Townsville is off. That leaves two meetings and limited opportunities. I spent some time on today's meetings but don't see anything that stands out. I had hoped to find a bet later in the day but Taree finishes with a Class 1, Stoney Creek with a 1000 metre restriced class featuring a horse that until recently had been racing exclusively at Picnic meetings which explains why a 7yo has a 50% win strike rate.
As I write this it is overcast and cold. A perfectly normal mid summer's day. I did manage to get back in my Hobie Adventure Island at the weekend before the rain came and it was a good feeling to be out there with the sun and the wind and the water. It all helps to recharge the system.
Monday 3rd January: I'm late today, probabaly still in holiday mode. Well that all ends doesn't it? Anyhow bet two horses in three races today for one winner which I picked up at the early odds of $4.20 so 1.8 units down except for the all ups. On the $2k bank I didn't have a bet so don't have a clue what happened to the Daily Feature Race. I'll update tomorrow.
Sunday 2nd January: A winning start for the Best Bets with two out of two and the Winform Gold selection won. Grandslam had four bets for one short priced winner. With a Bank of just $2,000 I took just six bets for the day with one winner at $15.40 plus the Winform Gold which I secured at best fluc of $1.90 which I took at Luxbet. So seven bets for the day at 2% of the Bank $280 out for $692 return. A profit of $412. In one day I have lifted my Bank to $2412. I also took our recommendation in the Daily Feature Race standing our Chasm in the Quinella which paid $16. I allowed $20 for this which meant I had $5 on each of the four possible Quinellas so $64.40 back. With the other $20 ($40 is my betting unit per race) I had 1.66 times a roving Trifecta for a return of $272. In the Weekend Feature Race I did the same with Rock Kingdom but lucked out with 1st and 3rd. Outlay for the two sets of exotics was $80 and $336 back (rounded) or $256 profit and now the Bank is $2668.
With the two Best Bets being in small fields I gave these a miss. Probably a mistake as both won but with the SMS selections plus the Winform Gold and Exotics I had outlaid nearly 20% of my Bank. It was a dangerous move and one I won't repeat. I recommend to my clients if betting multple runners in one race then a 1% bet is the maximum. I have to confess that it should be the same for the Exotics as there can be long losing runs.
Saturday 1st January: A Nice $750 Treble at Moonee Valley last night which overshadowed my attempts at finding winners choosing losers in three races and avaportaing almost exactly, the profits made earlier in the week.
For the New Year I have decided to start a Bank of just $2000 which I will use to bet choosing from the available Winform selection services. I will bet only on days that I am available to bet so in other words betting to life's circumstances and taking the good with the bad. This Bank will have nothing to do with my professional punting as all bets will be placed at once. I expect the Bank to go up and down like a yo yo but as long as it finished up I will be happy.
So Happy New Year to everyone and let's make this one a hel of a winning year.
Friday 31st December: Still considering the offerings today. May take a little while. I might be more impressed after lunch.
Thursday 30th December: Yesterday worked out alright even though one of our runners in the last was scratched at the barrier. We had chosen to take the Daily Double and ended up on the favourite, which ironically, would have been our selection if the scratched horse had occurred early in the day. Anyhow we did get paid the DAILY DOUBLE and our first leg was a $7.50 winner so a handy profit on the day.
Nothing today though but maybe something tomorrow. I'll advise by 11 a.m. on Friday. Mr X has advised that the winner on the $11 line 1902 210 680 was $4.60 which is exceptional for these hotshots. Unfortunately the Daily Feature Race failed. Come on Mr X! The Weekend Feature Race should be done and that will be a ripper.
The office is open tomorrow till 5 p.m. when the half price sale ends.
Wednesday 29th December: I have chosen three races at Canterbury today and taken the runners in all ups, including the Daily Double. In one race I've bet three runners even though one of them is $3.20 favourite. That runner assures money back if either of the other two, which are at $11 and $8, fail. Most Daily Doubles pay better than taking the horses all up, but nto always. I bet my Double at Iasbet which pays a bonus on the Double.
I noticed Mr X could not find the Quinella yesterday but I forgive him as he did find the $23.90 winner. Good money in anybody's language. I am off to Sydney overnight for a show at the Opera House and dinner and no it's not Opera or Oprah either. It's a gift from my daugher and son in law.
We had a few favourable calls from Members yesterday who backed the last winner in Gosford which was top rated at $21. Just a reminder. All books on the online store are half price until Friday plus $10 for post and pack and any bonuses do not apply at the half price. Also all dutch betting software is half price until then. All orders will be sent Tuesday next week. It's a good chance for holiday reading.
Tuesday 28th December: I expect a selection or two for the SMS subscribers tomorrow, Townsville is off today and only Gosford offers a good surface. The Premiums let us down yesterday even though we did get well into the placings. Not alot on offer today. I wonder what Mr X has for us today. That might be the best betting option for those just wanting one investment.
Monday 27th December: Well, went within a nose of knocking over Sincero. Close but no picnic box. It was still the right play. The Daily Feature, which was my pick yesterday scored a $24.80 Quinella and Mr X was wrong about Bellagio Wynn but did pick up the $53 Quinella as a consolation. We also scored the Randwick Quaddie.
Almost a holiday for me today but had frist to process all those subscribers who pay monthly. Many are not aware of this service. It generally ensures that your ratings roll over each month and the monthly fees are relatively painless.
Grandslam had their last throw of the dice yesterday and while a good winning day could not overcome the year's losses, the first loss since the early nineties. Good luck today.
Sunday 26th December:Ros and I scored a welcome Christmas present when our youngest daughter Natalie announced she was expecting. It'll be our first grandchild. A long time to go yet of course.
Today I can see the first favourite at Randwick going down at odds on. I really love the horse Sincero but it is beatable on the Good 2 track we have today, if they get the race run before the rain hits. I would have taken the million they offered for it. Of course it may win today, if not it is a $100,000 horse at best.
FRiday 24th September: Happy Christmas. The Daily Feature Race found a winner but no Quinella yesterday. I had not intended to supply SMS selections today but have found some bets that I can't ignore and will send out early in the hope of some value later. I appreciate that many of you are busy today as am I with last minute orders.
Thursday 23rd December: A Quinella in the first two races on the Winform Daily Mail. No luck in the Daily Feature Race though. Our two Winform Gold selections let the Premium team down but the C Plan and the B Plan were not wihout winners, jjust never enough of them. There are some interesting races later today but I will be keeping a weather eye. WA still looks dry.
Can you belive that yesterday we actually had a 12yo on top pof the ratings. Can you believe it actually won? And no I didn't back it and I don't expect too many did.
Wednesday 22nd December: A few bets for the SMS group today and a few bets for the Premium subscribers. David Bendeich is reviewing all the Premium rules and all current subscribers will be sent an update. Mainly it will focus on those rules that are failing now that another year of data is available.
I hope a few readers took notice of yesterdays tips for Goulbourn. The horses ran 1,2,3 and Mr X also scored a Trifecta in his Daily Feature Race, although the dividend was disappointing. I wonder what Mr X will find today?
My time is split now between Racing and asisting in preparing the house for Christmas. Wonder which task is more appealing? I have a few orders to send this morning and then from 1p.m. it will be an all out attack on the bookies!
Tuesday 21st December: All three tracks are rain affected today. That's O.K. for Powerbet, the C Plan and the like but not a day for specials, although I think at Goulbourn in Race 5 numbers 2,5,and 6 will fight it out. The fav Silent Reward, is a maiden but has been unlucky and so I am not keen to bet against it. If it could get beat the others will pay well.
I'm hoping for a better opportunity tomorrow when there are five Metropolitan meetings to cater mainly for the Christmas party set but which will provide some reasonable opportunities if the weather holds.
Monday 20th December: We have three meetings today and alll start late. That's O.K. for the partygoers but not O.K. fo the punters the trainers the jockyes and other racecourse employees. Add the the float drivers etc. but they all have to work and we don't have to punt unless we want to.
A Quinella, Exacta and Trifecta for the Daily Feature yesterday, so only two quinellas missed in the past two weeks. The dividends yesterday weren't that great but you never know when the big ones are going to come in.
We are 24.49 units short of our annual goal for the SMS service. The service has only been going for three months so we should make it but we are ina stalled pattern, going up and down and up and down. Saturdays have eanred just 0.87 units profit so we just have to worh harder. This is probably the last mention of this particular SMS service as all places are now filled.
Our Saturday ratings subscribers will have access to the Boxing Day Races as these will be posted to the Saturday AND the Sunday page.
Sunday 19th December: At last, a winning Saturday for our SMSers and a big one too. Five races bet for three wins and a second.I sent those bets out early so Members could get set at the good prices which were $2.80, $3.60 and $15. The best fluctuation prices for the same horses were $2.20, $5 and $10 and it often works that way. My play was an all up on the first four and there were 16 combinatons. I used a $10 base bet for the parlays and won $2945. Had our very first bet resulted in a win instead of second it would have been $11,000. This morning I did a recalc. using Parlay Magic and the result was so close to identical it doesn't matter. The difference is siiting down and working out the combinations and placing the bets (about an hour) or placing them as it happens which is no drama if you are watching the races anyway.
Th easiest place to be parlays (yankees) is at IASBET or Sportingbet.
Today is family day and my wife's extended family joins us for a Christmas party with the focus on the kids of course but we grown ups will enjoy the food and the beer. It meant Ros and I had a busy night and day, setting up tables and decorating and nibbling as we went. How is your day?
Saturday 18th December: No Quinellas yesterday but a fabulous $10 winner. Can't have everything Mr X! The SMS service has now closed to new subscriptions. It was not a winning week, very stressful in fact and a disappointing result. On the plus side we should do well today.
With everyone having so many things on we will have a go Wednesday but skip the other days this week, although the Major Boxing Day meetings will be covered for Saturday SMS subscribers. All other services carry on as usual. Good luck today.
Friday 17th December: It happened again. Another Daily Feature Race another Quinella at $22 it's a good effort. Trifectas are proving a bit more elusive. I got a shock at JB HI Fi yesterday to find practically all their new laptops were preloaded with Windows 7 64 bit. I did some more research and found that in online forums people are not happy. Many find themselves forced to purchase 64 bit versions of their programs e.g. Office 2010 and they find their old files don't run. It seems like a bit of a scam to me.
Microsoft claim that their Windows 7 operating system is guaranteed to be back compatible but many people are having problems. Before I purchase any new computers I take my own software to the dealer and insist on installing it to make sure it runs before I outlay my money. If any dealer baulks at this I simply go somewhere else.
I I asked the difficult questions at Dick Smith Glendale yesterday and found that basically the so called "techspert" didn't really want to help me but walked away saying "you'll be right now" after not answering the question on their back up systems they had advertised. It was just too time consuming for him and he really wanted to get back to the customer looking at radio controlled helicopters and such. The trouble is that they seem to employ a lot of "children" at this time of the year who have no concept of customer service.
Have you seen today's offering? Eleven race meetings, some running only a couple of minutes apart. What genius thought that up? Yesterday only three meetings? I'll be carefully selecting the meetings today, then I'll start sniffing out the opportunities. I had hoped to be finding something at Cessnock but with yesterday's storms? Mr X will have his work cut out today, I can say that.
Thursday 16th December: Our SMS Members were in front after our very first race yesterday. The next runner gave a solid return each way but then the last three runners let us down. A profit result is a good result however.
Geoff Wright reports a very good 19% Profit on Turnover betting the B Plan over recent weeks. As promised Geoff has been betting these religiously and has been rewarded with a good profit. Used in conjunction with the C Plan it is hard to see how you could lose, especially if the Money Factory is engaged.
The A, B and C Plans were all highlighted in Racing Pays More which sells to members for just $99 and non members pay only $149.
In negotiations with a new player all Winform Members are entitiled to $100 in free bets without any obligations. Details will be in the E-News in the next week or so. In addition to that purchasers of selected Winform products or services will get a 50% rebate in their betting accounts at this new agency. The new players are putting the finishing touches to the new site and it is envisaged that all will be ready early in the New Year.
Today I am finalising the move from our old office and so no action for SMS Members unless I get finished early and there is a promising bet around 5 or later. This is if it all runs smoothly and we all know about that, don't we?
Wednesday 15th November: It has been pointed out that I made an error in the E-News re the bonus offer. In the first paragraph the wording is Either i.e. anyone who has either of the programs listed can have the other for half price. In the next paragraph the proposition is correct, simply purchase one and get the other free but in the case of Money Factory if that is the free one then the binuses are not included. Anyhow, if you are not sure simply email me firstname.lastname@example.org and I will clarify or include your phone number and I will call you.
I made a mess of the SMS yesterday, well to be more truthful, the horses made a mess of them with a couple of unlucky seconds causing my downfall. We recovered late with two winners which I took all up but at the end of the day we are behind. We did select the Wangaratta Treble, Daily Double and Quaddie in the ratings, all of which paid well (Quaddie $3000, Treble abotu $1,000) We'll try again today.
The last of the office remnants get transferred from Wallsend tomorrow so I won't be in action till late afternoon, if at all. Today I am finalising arrangements with a very lucrative offer with a new corporate bookmaker whcih should be beneficial to all Members. I'll ceratianly advise when that is happening.
Tuesday 14th December: Today I'll be sending a report on yesterday's gambling conference. I can reveal that the Federal Government had a representative there to report on the conference also to help with assessment of problem gambling and online gambling. That person had no previous knowledge of Racing at all.
Last week's headline was Wagga flooded, this week's should read Wagga race on Good 3 after mammoth rains last week. I wll be surprised if we don't get a couple of good bets for the SMS service today.
Monday 13th: Today I am at the Racing and Gaming forum in Sydney which we sponsor. The heads of Racing and Gaming will all be in attendance, as will be the lawyers. Sadly todays Racing can't happen without them. Last year when I chaired the forum, the main topic, which everyone agreed on, was that the laws governing Racing should be uniform across the country yet today we are no closer than then. Worse, there are calls for the head of Racing in Victoria, Rob Hines, who has done such a good job in making that State an example for the rest of the country. It is purely politically motivated now that we have a new goverment in that State. Well why not wait until after the NSW election and get it all done at once. In NSW something has to be done. In Victoria a lot has already been done.
I noted some good C Plan winners yesterday and a couple of Premiums won. Today, as I am unable to be in two places at once, there will be no SMS selections but I am sure that "Mr X" will add to his Daily Feature Race record with Eight wins with at least the Quinella in a row.
Sunday 12th December:"Mr X" , there's no stopping him. He, and now I have to question if it was "he" selected the Weekend Feature Race and scored yet another Quinella for seven days in a row. The Daily Feature was not his selection yesterday and it missed completely.
Our SMS service ended up in profit for the week but yesterday was another bad loss for the Saturday only subscribers. It was a lossy day all round although I noted that the B Plan was alive and well with a 37% race strike rate. I am using slightly adjusted rules, sticking to races on Good to Dead surfaces only. I had another favourable comment from a Member who recently purchased Racing Pays More. He is doing the C Plan and B Plan in tandem ( you cannot have a B Plan and a C Plan in the same race) and using Money Factory and reported a profit and an easy one at that, of $223 on a low base bet.
You do need a subscription to Winform Ratings to use these plans but what's $35 a week when you can do so well? We have a $1595 Money Factory package that includes three months ratings and we'll throw in Racing Pays More. You can click the online store tag on the left hand side menu to order.
Saturday 12th December: Mr X did it again yesterday with a $400 Trifecta in the Daily Feature Race. Seriously> Is $363 for a whole year too much to pay? That's six in a row for at least the Quinella. He gets a day off today as Belle tries to keep the record going at Rosehill. "Mr X" did select the Weekend Feature Race though so there is still the possibility of seven in a row.
The SMS clients dropped 7 units ($700 on a $100 bet) by Tuesday but finished on a high with 8.9 Units or $892 profit for the week. The winners yesterday were all short priced but I took an all up which included yesterday's Bet Bet for a $7k profit.It could have been 27k but for one horse holding the lead right to the post,almost. Bugga!
We have had four losing Saturdays in a row which is a record but how to reverse that today? There is no set strategy. I will simply do what I do every other day and hope to break the drought. They do always break you know. am a littl bit hampered by a perceived need to not include horses that are already selected elsewhere i.e. Winform Gold or Best Bets or Grandslam etc but I am not going to shackle myself today. I will simply supply what is best based on my usual process.
Friday 11th December: I made the right decision in holding off yesterday as the one race I had selected at Gosford and at Townsville resulted in a short priced first and a second. "Mr X" again found a Quinella in the Daily Feature Race so is that five in a row? The pressure is on to continue.
Iasbet continues to provide many bonuses and opportunities for punters and this weekend has money back options as well as fixed price markets for Hong Kong. I have sent out the details in the latest E-News. They also have money back specials in at least one race a day and I alwasy look at these as a race inwhich we can get an edge. I am no longer a shareholder in Iasbet but continue to bet with them whenver they have the best price which is oftenand I always take my Doubles, Trebles and Quaddies with them as they pay bonuses.
Today is a massive day. I have never seen so many Friday meetings but some may be caled off and some I will choose not to bet at all. We will see. If there are any betting opportunities I will pass them on to the SMS subscribers but they could come at any time as several are twilight meetings.
Thursday 10th December: A very good day for the SMS service again yesterday and anyone who used Parlay Magic to go all up, had a very good result with a return from four of the five races selected. By coincidence one of the races was the Daily Feature Race which resulted in the two selected runners making the Quinella.
I have apponted a data base firm to upload the races and selections to the website daily and most days they are also posting the Daily Feature Race. This simply means that their "Mr X" is consistently good since he started with several good exotic results in the past week. It also means that there are now three people altogether who can load up the website so it makes good commercial sense.
Today's races do not appeal to me at all. The programs are dreadful and the betting opportunities that exist look to be too narrowly priced to make it worthwhile. Our midweek SMS clients willl have to content themselves with counting their money from yesterday. There are some Premium bets though.
Wednesday 9th December: One very good win and two seconds from our SMS selections yesterday. I have to credit vintage jockey Robert Thompson for our defeat as he found a needle eye opening on the rails to beat us after he was held up and in most circumstance would have had to go to the outside. Had he done so he would have lost. Some of today's super stars would do well to watch that run. In contrast, his ride in the last race which also cost us a win was one of those where he came from last wide out to win. Our selection which was backed solidly, had no chance of staving him off.
Today the track conditions point to no betting at Gawler or Doomben and a weather watch on Sale. Rosehill should improve this afternoon but we will be watcfhing the trend carefully. Yesterday's Daily Feature Race resulted in a $400 Trifecta and $2000+ First Four. Of course we scored the $22 winner as well. See today's E-News for more information.
Tuesday 8th December: Any SMS bets today look like arriving after 4 p.m. Our main selection yesterday started second favourite but couldn't do the job s she is sacked from the team. A horse that had one win from 26 starts was backed in from $17 to $10 and won. Beats me.
Good news with the eye. It is healing well and full sight may be restored in time. There is a side affect though. A cataract is likely to develop in about 12 months but the good news there is that these are now replaced with an intraocular artificial lense which should solve the problem forever.
The B Plan continues to look promising and the C Plan has found winners as it nearly always does and John French advises that Richard Mc Hutchison's pland made about 38 units profit for November. John was able to put the system into the GTX programme and so it automatically pulls up the selections each day. John says the drawback is that there are often runs of outs so you have to be patient, as with any method.
Monday 6th December: A pleasing result for the Daily Feature Race yesterday. The winner was around $7+ . Today the Donald races have been transferred to Ararat. I have found one betting race at Taree which I am confident about, given the bias I am expecting today. I visit my eye specialist today and will find out how I am going and whether or not my eyesight will improve from here. I am hopeful it will. It would be disappointing to find out I need the operation again, although that option is remote.
We expect many of this week's race meetings to be abandoned as flood waters build moving downstream. We are expecting flooding in the Hunter today even though there has been no rain for days now.
On the domestic front there are only 31 days to go before Mat gets his licence back, then he has access to dozens of good paying jobs. His attitude changes slowly but we are getting there.
From now until Christmas is busy for a lot of our Members but also, through to January the Racing is usually more consistent but the rains can blunt that. I recall putting out a book in about 1992 based on three god January periods ina row and you guessed it, the very next January was one of the worst but with hundreds of thousands of results since then the results for that period have been consistently good.
Results for November are online this morning.
Sunday 5th December: I concentrated yesterday on the two good track venues but came unstuck. Our SMS Members who do midweek only had a good profit for the week. Those who do every day got square, or near enough. The Saturday only Members failed to score a winner. Our best hope in the last at Morphettville stumbled mid race.
Premium subscribers scored a first and a second from two bets and there were some good winners in the ratings, including Danzylum at $12+. Eagle Farm was abandoned after two races, the GoldCoast was downgraded and Toowoomba was off completely, as was Gunnedah.
The C PLan had some more good results.
Saturday 4th December: Water water everywhere. It was a good week for the SMS service and this service will close by December 17th I think to keep subscriber limits to the max. I was disturbed yesterday to hear that the form analyst for a major ratings business is no longer with them. When you pay big money based on the reputation of a particular analyst and you do all your staking systems and planning around those results it must be devestating. One thing that I have done personally is programmed all my thinking and basic analysis into a computer program that is maintained by a company that has four senior experienced partners so that no matter what happens to me the Winform ratings will continue to be provided as they were during my recent bout of health problems. The only thing that will be affected are services that require my exclusive input and even these have certain contingincies in place.
The SMS is a good example. While I do these more or less exclusvely, I am currrently training other people to fill the role if anything happens. I have allowed myself up to six weeks in total off during the duration of everyones 12 month subscription to cover for necessary periods of "recharging" or poor Racing opportunity. Today there are limited solid betting opportunities due to track conditions but I do expect to find a few races with worthwhile chances, probably in Adelaide and Perth.
Friday 3rd December:Update: I forgot to advise the success in yesterdays Daily Feature which yielded a very fat Quinella. Today I will have selections for the SMSers but not until after 2. Pakenham is rain soaked with mor about but the track looks good.
Another rain affected day with Coffs Harbour already off, Mudgee under water (won't race tomorrow) and Parkes off too. I sent the E-News yesterday and commented non the all but forgotten "B Plan" from Racing Pays More. Yesterday the C Plan landed a $66 winner in Geelong race 2. We had one of those a few weeks ago and I suggested we wouldn't see many more of those but they keep popping up.
We have the new Telstra T-Bar system operating and it has benefits but one of the problems is that we get calls while we are out or on another call and we are not aware anyone has rung. Yesterday we found 12 unanswered calls, a record I guess, about 9 p.m. Now that we know the traps it shouldn't happen again as we will recheck the messagebank every hour. I may have an SMS bet or two today but recheck the diary about noon.
Thursday 2nd December: A better result for the SMS all up yesterday. I won $7k on the day and that included a $50 all up bet on the two winners. I had pulled my horns in a bit, halving my stakes of the past couple of weeks. I could have had a great day had I included the two Winform Gold selections which both won. For the record, had we done this the profit on the day for a $10 parlay (and there would have been four possible parlays) was $15893.
I doubt we'll have any SMS bets today due to track conditions and we won't be betting into the night with Pinjarra and Launceston. Geelong must have the rail out a long long way.
Wednesday 1st December: I took our first three SMS races all up yesterday and just missed out when two won and the third was a head second. Our last flutter missed completely, spoiling what would otherwise have been a reasonable day. I pulled a couple of selections because of the expected short prices but both won and at $1.60 and $3. With both winning that would have been acceptable but not if they lost.
I'm not expecting a lot of action today but Ballarat sometimes throws up some good results s I will be looking closely. An investigation of the SMS overall reveals that theerace striek rate is about right but the average dividend is well down the past month or so. Just one longshot chnages all that and they do come.
I am happy to say that we donated a considerable sum to Movember this morning, thanks to the Members who placed orders via the online store which will get a revamp shortly. Have a good day today.
Tuesday 30th November: It should be a better day today. I have identified some good betting opportunities if the rain stays in the sky at Muswellbrook. Kyneton can be a horses for courses place but if the horse is good enough anything can win there. SMS Members can expect an early call if the odds are right.
In the meantime Geoff has been relooking at Racing Pays More which includes the B Plan. He is very happy with results in the past two weeks (he cliams 50% winning races so far) and so on my recommendation is having a look using Powerbet as the average price of winners does exceed $5. Geoff will advise in a few weeks once he has sufficient data to go one way or the other.
Did anyone follow my recommendatio the the cricket the other day? It certainly worked out well with England now a favourite to win the series (heaven forbid) and a profit is virtually assured. Sports betting ofetn presents this sort of opportunity although mostly you have to use all your own money.
Monday 29th November: We could just pretend we passed the day idly by. I had a very busy day but as I said yesterday it would not be a good day and so it proved.
Sunday 28th November: Rain affected tracks down south and a good track and big fields in Perth. How does a 9yo knock off one of the best sprinters in Oz? The Premium bets had a great day, mostly at Darwin and not before time. Personally I continued my bad run that I have been having for just over a week and knocked off 25% of my Bank. But that's what a Bank is for. I've paid off $100,000 on my mortgage thanks to punting so far this year so it's not a bad result, especially with recent stress because of having an eye operation and the normal run of family matters.
Now to clean up with a good run to the end of the month. It is likely that my focus will be on races run later in the day with the Race clubs catering to all the Christmas functions and the last race likely to be 6p.m and later. The better races tend to be run towards the end of the program. I'm not fussed with the changes brought about some states having daylight saving and others lagging behind because they don't have it.