By Brett Craig
Well I’m back in good old Oz for Christmas with the family but will soon head back to Canada where I now work for a major software company and where the snowboarding is unbelievable. The Editor has asked for my latest thoughts and so here they are.
Of all the methods I have tried, both in Australia and now in Canada, I have never found anything to beat what is generally called the
Trixie and or the Patent. Both bets consist of tying up three horses in various combinations and as I do not attend the track ( I am not a fan of the dirt track Racing and tote only betting over here) I tap into the website and look for three good selections to make me a motza if they go the way I want them too.
The Trixie is a four unit bet so $10 is a $40 outlay; $50 is $200 and so on. You get one Triple horse all up bet and three Doubles so if we call our horses A, B and C we have bets as follows: ABC, AB, AC and BC.
“I don’t have to look for long shot horses to get a good return, I just need good consistent horses at ordinary odds and most would be first second or third favourite.”
Now a Patent adds a single bet for each of these which means an outlay of three extra units. So for a Patent we have:
ABC ,AB, AC and BD PLUS A, B and C a total of $70 for a $10 unit bet. I don’t have to look for long shot horses to get a good return, I just need good consistent horses at ordinary odds and most would be first, second, or third favourite, not because I choose them that way but because their form is good enough to warrant a good bet and I am not the only one smart enough to recognise a good bet when I see one.
On December the 7th 2008, I found three horses that I liked. The first two were Best Bets at the Wyong Magic Millions meeting and they were Race 1: ‘Paraded’ and Race 2: ‘Choisie’. My third bet was one I spotted in David Bendeich’s book The Key to Winning Consistently Edition Two using the free ratings provided by Unitab. It was one of only two such bets on the day and had won its last start and was a strong finisher which is what you need at Cranbourne. It was Race 6 Just Look.
One thing punters think about and I think about a lot is, “a small number of quality bets”. Now with my work and the time differences that is just what I need and as a programmer I work strange hours anyway, often putting in long hours when I am on to some new programming solution, or I think I am anyways.
Firstly I will give you the results for each race and then the combinations for each play and to keep it simple we will use a $10 base bet.
Horse A: ‘Paraded’ ran third at $1.32. Horse B: ‘Choisie’ won and paid $2.75 and Horse C: Just Look paid $4.82, so nothing out of the ordinary.
Here’s the Trixie.
Horses A, B and C: Third, First and First - NO Dividend
Horses A and B: Third and First - No Dividend.
Horses A and C: Third and First - No Dividend
Horses B and C: Horse B came First at $2.75
x Horse C who came First at $4.82
= Total: $13.25 or $132.50 for a $40 outlay.
Profit: $92.50.
Now for a Patent we also get:
Horse A: Third - NO Dividend
Horse B: First - $2.75 Plus
Horse C: First - $4.82 Plus
Horses B and C at $13.25
Total: $20.82 or $208.20 for a $70 outlay or
Profit: $138.20.
What would have happened if all three won? Paraded was paying $2.50 for the win.
Horses A, B and C is now $2.50 x $2.75 x $4.82 = $33.13
Horses A and B is now $2.50 x $2.75 =$6.87
Horses A and C is now $2.50 x $4.82 =$12.05 Plus
Horse A is now $2.50.
Total: $54.55 or $545.50 extra
New Total: $753.40 for the $70 outlay.
Now we are talking real money. If I find no “good things” I sometimes bet just the Trixie and if I spy the result and neither of the first two runners has won I might then have a bet on the third horse, if I’m not already asleep or otherwise desposed by then.
My preference though is the Patent because even if two shortpriced winners come in I will make a profit with the Double and two win bets and sometimes just the win bet gets me close enough to “out of the woods”.
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