There is no doubt in the average punters mind that the barrier
draw affects a horse's chances in a race. One of the aspects of barrier draws
that few punters realise is the effect it has on the price of the horse. Let's
put it another way. Does the price of a horse become badly affected if it
has an inside barrier draw? In my book "My Favourite Book" which
was published in 2003 and featured the results of betting favourites in 54,000
races, the following results applied.
Barrier |
Bets |
Wins |
Strike Rate |
Average Dividend |
Loss |
1-4 |
25132 |
8139 |
32% |
$2.70 |
13% |
5-8 |
16191 |
4986 |
31% |
$2.77 |
15% |
8-10 |
9875 |
2933 |
30% |
$3.02 |
10% |
11+ |
3968 |
1114 |
28% |
$3.36 |
6% |
Now in reading the above table you should realise that an inside barrier
draw can be one of the reasons that a horse is the favourite. In other words,
had the horse drawn poorly, it would not have been favourite. Realise, also,
that the 7% of horses that were still favourite in spite of a wide barrier
draw, are better bets because of the fact that although their strike rate
is up to 10% less, the dividends obtained are 20% better.
It is even possible that you could make a level stakes profit by doing no
more then backing the favourite when it is drawn barrier 11 or worse at best
fluctuation with bookmakers.
Now let's look at the possibilities revealed by this analysis which is restricted
to favourites. If favourite prices are affected as above by this one important
factor, how is a non favourite going to be affected? The answer to this one
is simply "more so". Quite often you will find that a horse is not
favourite simply because of the barrier draw. Even worse (or better of you
are a punter) the price may be several points better because of this.
Let's look at just one example.
In fields of 13 in sprint races the chances of finding the winner by picking
with a pin is 7.6%. By restricting our pin to selections that start in barriers
1-7, we get an 8% strike rate. By using our pin on runners drawn wider than
this we get a strike rate of just 6% or 25% less. Now let's look at the extreme
examples of starters in barrier one and barrier 13, remembering that we are
only looking at random selections.
Horses that started in barrier one had a strike rate of 8% and lost 20 cents
for every dollar invested.
Horses that started from barrier 13 had a strike rate of just 6% but lost
just 2 cents for every dollar invested.
Imagine what can happen when we start to back horses drawn wide only when
they have strong form lines?
In sprint races where we chose only the fastest horse in the race, horses
drawn outside barrier 10 produced lower strike rates but actually made level
stakes profits.
Barriers are important, make no mistake about that. The smart punter though,
knows when to use information like the above to their own advantage. Many
punters simply refuse to bet their selections if they are drawn wide. Clearly,
when you view the above information, their strategy is flawed. Although when
you consider one individual race, your chances of winning that one race will
be diminished, in the long term, you will be far better off by including these
selections in.
In my new "Barrier Book" I consider fields of 5-8, where you would
think that the barrier bias would have little effect, fields of 9-12 where
a wide draw would be expected to be a negative factor, to fields of 13+ where
the public believes that horses drawn wide have little to no hope. In addition
to this I consider three sets for distances. Sprints to 1250 metres, middle
distance to 1670 metres and staying events of ay distance beyond this.
The public belives that wide barier draws are of little consequence in staying
events. My new book reveals the facts. In essence I believe that winning punters
are the ones who use facts, not fiction, to make their investment decisions.
Garry Robinson's The Winform Barrier Book is now available from Winform for
just $99 for Non-Members or $89 for Members. Order
Now! |