So why did Exalted Ego, a lightly raced horse with two wins from
just 14 starts, pay over $60 when winning at Cheltenham on April 16th? It was
alisted race for 3yos and part of the Autumn Carnival in Adelaide.
Here are a few clues.
>From four starts at Cheltenham, Exalted Ego had won two and
placed in another. In the horse's first preparation there had been steady improvemnet
before two wins over 1400 and the 1350 metres before departing for a well deserved
spell. The rider S. Price on both occasions.
We have established that this Morphettville trained horse races
well for Price, needs at least 1300 metres or more and like the Cheltenham track.
In January, Exalted Ego had a first up run over 1000 metres at
Victoria Park, then a fourth over 1050 at Morphettvile before a good third in
smart time at that same track but over 1200 metres. Our rating, a solid 58.
Our rating scale generally runs from 30 to 70 so he is definitely on the higher
end.
On February 19th the horse led when ridden by an apprentice rider
and then had a 35 day let up. Resuming at The Oakbank Carnival over an unsuitable
1100 metres in late March, Exalted Ego made ground from near last to finish
a respectable fifth beaten just over two lengths. Price was again in the saddle.
So here we are at Cheltenham, his favoured course with his only
winning rider, ready to race over his favoured distance (1450)and drawn in barrier
1 where it is essential to draw well. He should have been a $3 or $4 chance
but backing for the favourite Moet Magic which was second up from a spell and
therefore considered by us to be not quite fit enough for this distance, and
Melrose Gardens which had two wins and a placing from only four career starts
but had the drawback of being in barrier 10.
I agree that a lot of the time, the favoured horses will win but
in a Carnival situation, local horses are often ignored in favour of the Interstate
horses and this creates a yawning gap between a horse's real chance of winning
and the odds on offer. Interstate punters create a false market , as they wrongly
believe the Interstate horses must be better, after all, haven't they come a
long way for this?
It is false logic as the local owners and trainers will be trying
their best to win their local races when the prizemoney on offer is so much
better than normal. As for Exalted Ego, you won't be getting 60/1 in future
but there will be many occasions when a horse like this will win again and "surprise"
us all. All but the true form analyst, that is.
Below we have reproduced the form for Exalted Ego. The form is
taken from TRB's excellent GTX program which we use to rate our selections.
Enquiries about GTX are welcome at (02) 49501747 during office hours or email direct@hunterlink.net.au
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