A Mixed Bag
I spoke to Brian Hergt today. Brian brought up a very good point about the Winform weight scale. Members who do their own ratings using Winform will be especially keen to read this. When horses race next time we assess the weight difference according to the new distance. I never mentioned the fact that even if the horse has the same weight and was assessed for a 1600 metre race based on 1400 metre race form, we probably should make an adjustment as even with the same weight the horse must run slower as the effect of weight over a longer distance is to tire the horse that little bit more.
The same will apply over all distance changes. Of course, when the runs you choose for the other qualifiers are also over the same distance, then no adjustment is necessary. I expect in the majority of cases it would make little difference but if you looked at one horse that say raced over 1600 last time and is now over 1400 and compared that to a horse that raced at 1200 last time, you can see that the difference would be dramatic. Have you thought about this before? Are you aware of any situations where this has been the difference between winning and losing?
In The Ultimate Strategy, I have captured some of this difference in the fact that we adjust projected race times for the increased or decreased distance. Still, Brian's thoughts are valid and I thank him for bringing it up.
Stuart Ellis asked us why we have some very good horses e.g Lonhro, so far down in the ratings at times. I may have answered this question before but the fact is that we treat all horses, even champion horses, the same. A horse that came back from 2000 metres to 1500 metres and after a four-week break, gets a twenty point penalty. We win because we bet fit horses that can run fast. We have tried artificially boosting the runs of this type of horse and got egg on our face. I can recall boosting Might And Power once when he ran at $1.20 and got beat! We boosted Sunline a couple of times and she got beat. In the end we decided not to interfere and let the ratings just be what they are. If good horses like Lonhro can beat us then good luck to them. Do we really want to be taking these very short priced horses? On that same day that Lonhro beat us, Alinghi, the odds on favourite in the Golden Slipper went down to our clear top rated selection Dance Hero. It was a better bet at up to $7 than Alinghi, which was never better than $2.20 anyhow. A week later we got Alinghi beat again and this time by a $10 shot! One simple answer is to stay out of these types of races but just remember one win at longshot odds covers a hell of a lot of Lonhros.
SUCCESS EXPRESS AND WINFORM GOLD UPDATES
Commencing April 1st, and we're no fools; Members who subscribe should notice a difference in the selection services. About every two years, we review our programs and selection strategies and have done so once again. Racing is constantly changing with new Classes introduced, new weight limits and even new track surfaces. With the changes now in place we can confidently expect better then 40% winners for Success Express and we have used a new formula for Success Express selections for rain affected tracks.
Our Winform Gold selections have also changed. We have focused on providing an even better strike rate at close to 50%. All the new selection strategies are ideal for use with The Money Factory which is now also available on disk for your PC. Winform Winners and Winform Winner Specials remain the same and these are provided free to Winform Gold subscribers.
As these are all effectively NEW services we cannot provide past results but we can expect them to be better than last year's results. Our databases will be correct from 1/4/2004 and the first set of results will appear in the June Newsletter.
Here's a brief summary of our expectations SE 42%+ winners 70%+ places. Wgold 47% Winners 75%+ places. Success Express selections can be purchased via our daily $11 phone service 1902 210 680 or subscribe for 12 months with 55 cent daily phone access for $750 or included free via the internet with our ratings for $370 3 months or $1100 12 months.
MAGIC GRANDSLAM RESULTS
We had some great results on Saturday the 10th, with 5 winning races from 13, which is well below our average of 60% winning races. This included Recurring, which paid $19.50, and Dilly Dally, which paid $32.30. Using Powerbet for this day you could have stopped after the fifth race with a profit of $273.50 starting with a $10 base bet. We recommend that you quit after you have made a reasonable profit. However, if you had continued through the day and bet on all races the final result was a profit of $896.30. Either way, you were well in front. Those Members who subscribe to our Ratings service, which covers every horse in every race, had the chance of betting and scoring the trifecta on Randwick Race 7 which was in the top five ratings and paid $9434.10 on UniTAB. For more information about our Ratings services please contact the office.
FIRST FOUR IN WINFORM TOP FOUR
We had a great result in Canterbury Race 6 on the 21st of April. Our second rated horse won and paid $26.55 on IAS, but not only that, the top rated came second, the third rated came third and the fourth rated came fourth. The fourth rated was at odds of $45, because of these two longshot selections, the First Four had a decent payout of $7418.20. But the question is, did any Members have the bet on? The only viable way to bet First4s is to select your races carefully and only back the selections if there is a good chance of a getting value with payout.
The best payout for the Trifecta was $2230.30 on UniTAB and the best payout for the Quinella was $160.40 on UniTAB. The IAS payout in both cases was even higher.
If you would like more information on Winform Ratings, please contact our office on (02) 4950 1747 during business hours. Alternatively, to order Winform Ratings, simply visit our Bookshop and click on the link for Ratings and Selections.