By Garry Robinson
I write this as we come to the end of June, our first Winter month and as predicted in our Winter Wonderland article we have found many winning opportunities at spectacular prices. Winners at $53, $69 and $168, yes $168 are just a few of the winners we found at various meetings around the country during June.
These are ordinary races with ordinary horses and they are relatively easy to find even though we do have to be alert for the opportunity. There was the $8,000+ trifecta early in the month and just last Wednesday at Balaklava a $9,000 + trifecta in a race won by a $7.50 chance.
To be honest, the days when you could simply bet a few good bets on a given day have almost gone by the wayside. There is so much information out there and prices can get so short, it is hardly worth the effort. TABlimited through Skychannel are promoting the Valuebet service but it is quite obvious that by the time hundreds of punters Australia wide have accessed the information, these bets are no longer value.
There is Late Mail and parade ring assessments on TAB radio stations throughout the country and by and large only the horses already in the market are promoted. This means that backers of these horses are never going to land a 50/1 winner, but we are.
We concentrate on races where our top group of selections is at very good odds. This way when we do get a winner, we do benefit greatly. Now to do this we don't, like most punters seem to do, wait to the last minute. We find that we can look at the expected TAB dividends five or so minutes out and get a reasonable assessment of the market. Yes, some horses do come in but they tend to be the horses at shorter odds. Our selections are quite often $10 or more and tend to go out in the market rather than in.
One selection on Wednesday, was only paying $11.90 five minutes from the jump but by post time was available at $17.10. Even with our modest $20 outlay, the difference was an extra $120 plus.
Some years ago, there was a survey of betting trends in the bookmakers ring. On average, it was determined, 44% of horses firmed from their opening quote, 44% eased and the remaining 12% stayed the same. When we did a similar analysis of expected TAB dividends we were surprised to learn that the statistics were exactly the same.
We use Winform Ratings. You can download or view how we compile these by simply going back to our Home page and clicking on the Ultimate Strategy download link. We also supply these ratings for every race, every day Australia wide. For details of these simply go to our bookshop.
Winter Racing and ordinary horses, we love it. The people who make money from Racing do so by betting against the trend.