We always knew there had to be a longshot plan that was consistent enough to satisfy our Members and still maintain good dividends. We’re sure you’ll agree that the table below provides plenty of grounds for the argument that finding good priced winners is possible.
We first noticed that in the Racing Patterns and Spells analysis by Roger Biggs, certain horses were advantaged by as much as 20% more than most runners. These were the horses that were seasoned by having had more than just one or two runs from a spell.
We applied the strategy first to Winform Top Rated horses that were running a distance and this worked. More recently we applied it to all distances and were pleasantly surprised to find that it was even more effective over even the shortest distances.
In the past we told Members that you could make 50% profit simply by betting all Winform Top rated horses that were available at 8/1 or more and that hasn’t changed. The problem is, that the strike rate for these selections is as low as only 5%-6% and you can be months waiting for the big one to come in.
The beauty of these selections is that, as you can see on the table, the strike rate is closer to 18% win and 43% place at average dividends which show a profit most months. Not only that, but when your average dividend is over $7 the win and $2.50 the place, these selections are excellent when used in quinellas, trifectas and doubles etc.
We could have used all the selections and come up with a strike rate of around 25% but using the Winline GTS program we came up with another surprise! Horses that were either the top average prizemoney earner, the top place strike rate horse or the prepost favourite, all made a loss. The sacrifice in strike rate was more than made up for in the increase in dividend.
Race Month |
Bets |
Win |
Place |
Wout |
Wret |
Wprf |
W% |
Pout |
Pret |
PPRf |
P% |
February 1999 |
98 |
18 |
39 |
980 |
1989 |
1009 |
18 |
980 |
1036 |
56 |
40 |
March 1999 |
118 |
22 |
46 |
1180 |
1222 |
42 |
19 |
1180 |
1100 |
-80 |
39 |
April 1999 |
75 |
14 |
34 |
750 |
919 |
169 |
19 |
750 |
926 |
176 |
45 |
May 1999 |
80 |
10 |
35 |
800 |
851 |
51 |
12 |
800 |
852 |
52 |
44 |
June 1999 |
37 |
5 |
14 |
370 |
381 |
11 |
14 |
370 |
355 |
-15 |
38 |
July 1999 |
46 |
6 |
21 |
460 |
398 |
-62 |
13 |
460 |
470 |
10 |
46 |
August 1999 |
49 |
18 |
28 |
490 |
1048 |
558 |
37 |
490 |
564 |
74 |
57 |
September 1999 |
58 |
15 |
29 |
580 |
1159 |
579 |
26 |
580 |
723 |
143 |
50 |
October 1999 |
59 |
10 |
25 |
590 |
722 |
132 |
17 |
590 |
585 |
-5 |
42 |
November 1999 |
80 |
10 |
32 |
800 |
897 |
97 |
12 |
800 |
843 |
43 |
40 |
December 1999 |
93 |
19 |
48 |
930 |
1402 |
472 |
20 |
930 |
1123 |
193 |
52 |
January 2000 |
147 |
19 |
59 |
1470 |
1253 |
-217 |
13 |
1470 |
1344 |
-126 |
40 |
February 2000 |
131 |
21 |
48 |
1310 |
1483 |
173 |
16 |
1310 |
1432 |
122 |
37 |
March 2000 |
126 |
22 |
45 |
1260 |
2373 |
1113 |
17 |
1260 |
1230 |
-30 |
36 |
April 2000 |
94 |
18 |
46 |
940 |
1235 |
295 |
19 |
940 |
989 |
49 |
49 |
May 2000 |
89 |
14 |
39 |
890 |
731 |
-159 |
16 |
890 |
905 |
15 |
44 |
Totals |
1380 |
241 |
588 |
13800 |
18063 |
4263 |
18 |
13800 |
14477 |
677 |
43 |
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