Garry Robinson
Elsewhere
you'll see an article about attaining a 60% strike rate. At that stage
we had only about 25 bets. Three months later we have experienced over
60 bets and our strike rate is still over 50%! We have had our first real
losing run (only 5 winners from our last 15 bets) and our place strike
is hovering around 75%.
At
the present rate we will have about 140-150 bets per year or about three
bets per week. These are the crème de la crème , the most
select bets it is possible to have with every selection qualifying under
our special select rules.
On
a statistical basis it is possible, although unlikely, that we could suffer
a losing run of up to 17 but that is on the basis of having 10,000 bets.
Chances are we will never see such a bad run. Personally about 8 or 9 is
the most likely, so that amounts to two or three weeks of pain. Most punters
suffer much more than that.
A
recent bad experience was had by the followers of a very good plan that
sustains better than one winner in three. In three successive days there
were 15 bets for just one short priced winner. Goodbye half the Bank!
To make matters worse, there were only two winners in the previous eight
bets.
So
what do we look at, the short term pain or the long term gain?
Let's
play it safe. Why not stick to just 2% of the Bank as our bet level? This
will sustain us through fifty losing bets and that simply won't happen.
We wonder about the people who advocate using 10% of the Bank as a safe
bet level. With the specials listed below you would have no worries but
what about 17 outs? Wipeout!
Why
not try a workout betting just 2% of your Bank and increasing as your Bank
grows. That way, the risk is always the same but you can gradually increase
your betting by adding in the profits. It is more than likely that you
could double your Bank every six months or so.
Here
is a full list of selections for you to have a play with. Note the runs
of placed horses.
DATE
|
HORSE
|
FINISHED
|
WIN RETURN
|
8/1/99
|
VERDICT DECLARED
|
2
|
|
9/1/99
|
KINGSTON PARADE
|
1
|
$5.00
|
|
SHES NEAT
|
1
|
$3.25
|
17/1/99
|
MUSLIN ROSE
|
|
|
|
HOPEWOOD
|
3
|
|
|
SINGITA
|
3
|
|
23/1/99
|
MCJOEY
|
|
|
26/1/99
|
AL HARIQ
|
1
|
$2.90
|
30/1/99
|
STREAK
|
1
|
$1.90
|
|
BOLD REGENT
|
1
|
$3.30
|
6/2/99
|
SIZZLING SNIPPETS
|
1
|
$2.50
|
8/2/99
|
MIGHTY AMBER
|
1
|
$2.10
|
11/2/99
|
JUGHATRICE
|
2
|
|
12/2/99
|
LORING
|
1
|
$1.80
|
13/2/99
|
VIDA CELESTE
|
|
|
|
COMMANDS
|
|
|
|
ARIMETHEA
|
1
|
$2.00
|
|
KIMBERLEY GOLD
|
1
|
$5.50
|
14/2/99
|
RHONA
|
2
|
|
|
HOT N BREEZY
|
1
|
$1.70
|
21/2/99
|
ELISHIR
|
1
|
$2.25
|
|
CATBIRD
|
1
|
$1.67
|
25/2/99
|
FAYROUZ
|
1
|
$5.40
|
27/2/99
|
HUNTER WINEMAKER
|
2
|
|
|
GRAND ARCHWAY
|
|
|
3/3/99
|
IONISE
|
1
|
$3.25
|
4/3/99
|
GEORGEOUS INDEED
|
1
|
$2.75
|
8/3/99
|
HIGH OFFICE
|
1
|
$3.50
|
13/3/99
|
ZANADEN
|
1
|
$4.50
|
17/3/99
|
GOOD ENOUGH
|
1
|
$1.50
|
20/3/99
|
MYSTERY COMMAND
|
|
|
24/3/99
|
PEDROS PRINCESS
|
1
|
$1.90
|
|
TOTALLY CONFUSED
|
|
|
|
MAGYNSKY
|
2
|
|
27/3/99
|
NIN HARAKA
|
1
|
$1.50
|
28/3/99
|
CHIVAS N REGAL
|
|
|
3/4/99
|
FAYETTE
|
2
|
|
5/4/99
|
ALIGN
|
1
|
$2.90
|
7/4/99
|
VANDALISM
|
1
|
$1.70
|
10/4/99
|
SIR MOULA
|
|
|
|
MY ISLAND HOME
|
2
|
|
17/4/99
|
PRINCE HAKEEM
|
1
|
$1.50
|
|
DEDICATION BOY
|
1
|
$3.50
|
24/4/99
|
BONZER BLUE
|
1
|
$3.90
|
|
BRIGHTER SCENE
|
|
|
1/5/99
|
NOIRCOIR
|
1
|
$3.20
|
8/5/99
|
NORMANDIE
|
1
|
$2.75
|
12/5/99
|
GRAND ARCHWAY
|
2
|
|
14/5/99
|
ALWAYS IRISH
|
2
|
|
15/5/99
|
SWEEPSHOT
|
|
|
17/5/99
|
MOVILLES SLIPPER
|
|
|
|
MERINGO BAY
|
|
|
|
MARKET PRICE
|
1
|
$2.10
|
20/5/99
|
WHAT A MESS
|
|
|
22/5/99
|
SENATE LEASE
|
|
|
|
PERFECT PARADISE
|
1
|
$1.30
|
29/5/99
|
EPISODE
|
1
|
$2.10
|
|
IN PERIL
|
2
|
|
29/5/99
|
MULTITUDE
|
2
|
|
|
MORE ACTION
|
|
|
|