By Brett Craig
Low dividends are the bane of punters wanting to
back consistent horses, yet consistency remains as a key determining factor
in seeking winners. Last year I wrote about how prepost favourites which
were also top rated horses (using Winform Ratings) were more likely to
win than the normal average of winning favourites. Since then Garry Robinson
has done some work on the source of prepost favourites and found them to
be a less reliable guide than in the past.
I began to seek other avenues as my source of the
best chances in the race. Malcolm Knowles has produced an excellent series
of books relating to many racing factors. The two most important of these
is his Consistency book and his Prizemoney book.
Ranked average prizemoney has always been a good
guide to determining the class of a horse. The better the race the more
prizemoney, and so, a horse that has a higher average prizemoney than the
other contenders in a field, is going to be the horse that has raced in
better prizemoney races and earned more as a result.
A city raced horse will generally earn more prizemoney
than a country raced horse even though the country galloper may well have
won many more races. The problem with these higher rated prizemoney horses
is that the market often takes this into account and therefore you will
get lesser dividends as a result.
The key to this is to get a much higher strike rate.
For this you should look to factors like recent form, the barrier draw,
ability to handle today’s track conditions and so on.
The city horse which may have finished 4th to 7th
last start but beaten by only three to four lengths, may prove to be a
better prospect than the last start country or provincial winner. The prizemoney
factor may well be the difference.
In a recent analysis using the Winline GTS system
developer, I discovered that the best results were achieved by backing
only those horses that were ranked in the first two on prizemoney and also
in the top five place rankings. In other words, I used two of the most
important winner finding factors about.
The average dividend returned was low but the strike
rate was high. It was high enough to return a profit on both the win and
the place, which is the most stringent test you can apply to any system
The source of selections was the Winform Ratings
and I confined the base selections to the top two chances. The strike rate
improved from an average of over 30% of races won to over 60%. Such a high
strike rate does offer the optimum chance for a punter to win.