By Garry Robinson
Back in February 1991, I wrote a supplement to the original Racing
Pays book entitled Race Winning Strategy. In that book I explored the concept
of backing horses that were paying less than the Winform Rated odds, which
in theory, had to be a losing strategy.
Checking recently, I discovered that overall there was a strike rate
of near 40% for these investments with a positive profit on turnover. Not
much, but a profit nevertheless. The survey covered over 1200 bets over
a 12 year period. Further, I noted in that Race Winning Strategy book that
54% of investments won if rates 2/1 or less and still under the odds. Recent
figures suggest that nothing has changed, although, 50% plus winning investments
when there are only 30-40 bets per year, is not that big a discovery. We
need many more bets at these prices to make good profits.
The assumption here was that if our ratings highlighted the bet and
the public also highlighted the bet, then the likelihood of a win was greater
and so it proved. The problem was and still is, how do we know the final
price? The fact is we have to be right on the spot to know this, and even
then we know how quickly a price can change. As for the Teletext, forget
it! As long ago as yesterday we saw horses paying as little as even money
on the TAB that were actually two or three to one in the betting ring.
It was when Brett Craig came up with his article on prepost favourites
that I decided to do some more research on a slightly different angle and
noticed that my findings agreed with his, except that they went further.
If the Winform top rated horse was either first or second prepost
favourite (and this is known in the morning Newspaper) there was a strike
rate of better than 40% on the 170 odd selections checked just for November
and early December. Because 2nd prepost favourites were included
there was a slightly better win dividend too.
Overall we could see a profit of better than 27%.
As a further strategy, we used the six point plan on Saturday the
5th of December with great success. Of course, here, we did
reset our target each time we turned a profit. We didn't need to clear
our whole target. That type of strategy can lead to failure.
For an explanation of various betting strategies, including the six
point plan, simply go to the Members area for our free Staking 98 report.
If not yet a member, you can join by clicking here NOW!
As time goes by, we will update the results we are getting from this
method. It look highly promising, because, we are not using the prepost
market as a starting point. We are using it as a finishing point. A last
arbiter, if you like, of our own workouts. We can still strike our 20/1
30/1 and so on winners, as indeed we did yesterday at Murray Bridge and
Canberra, but whereas those winners are relatively rare, these shorter
priced selections, and winners, are coming up several times a day!