By Garry Robinson
Using our database we investigated the
runs of all last start winners at the four Melbourne Courses Moonee Valley,
Sandown, Flemington and Caulfield. For those who don’t know, these courses
each have their own peculiarities.
Is a saucer shaped
course with a Strathayr surface and well banked turns with a very short
straight. The unique surface means that even horses which don’t normally
handle the wet may do well here as the surface is well drained and heavy
track conditions are virtually unknown. You won’t ever see a fast track
posted here either. Those factors aside, there is definitely a group of
gallopers that save their best for here and here only. To make matters
more interesting, there is also night racing here and that introduces another
Is more oval shaped and
its main features are the banked turns. The VATC has made a commitment
to water down the track surface so that it is never better than good, although,
this Spring there were some exceptionally fast times recorded. There does
also appear to be a large number of horses that don’t handle the track.
Is one of Australia’s
best racetracks with a consistent surface and long stretches. The one inconsistent
feature is the straight 1000, 1100 and 1200 metre courses. Quite often
a significant group of horses will go to the outside rail and there can
be a lot of difference with one group or other being obviously favoured.
The problem is you will never know this until after the race.
Has its own unique feature
and this is the long uphill straight and before the turn a steady downhill.
The Melbourne Cup winner Rogan Josh is just one horse that didn’t handle
the downhill bit and ended up being left behind when they got to the post.
Nevertheless, horses that win at Sandown, almost always go on to perform
well at other tracks.
look firstly at Sandown winners:
Sandown winners that had their next start at either Caulfield
or Moonee Valley won only 12% of their next starts.
Sandown winners that had their next run at Flemington
or Sandown, however, won 16% of their races.
Flemington winners that next raced at Caulfield or Moonee
Valley won 16% of their races.
Flemington winners that started next at Flemington or Sandown won 17% of their races.
Caulfield winners that next raced at Caulfield or Moonee
Valley won 16% of their races.
Caulfield winners that next raced at Flemington or Sandown only won 13% of their races.
Moonee Valley winners whose next start was at Caulfield or Moonee
Valley won 16% of those next start but look at this. Only 13%
were able to win at Caulfield but 18% won when next raced at Moonee Valley.
This is a statistic that is unique to these
Valley to Valley runners.
Moonee Valley winners that next raced at Flemington or Sandown won only 12% of those future races.
The message is clear. Moonee Valley is
the most unique racetrack in Melbourne and whilst plenty of horses do race
well at Caulfield, a lesser percentage win at the harder Flemington and
Sandown courses after wins at the Valley.
Sandown is also a unique course with its
uphill and downhill sections. Strangely enough, Sandown winners don’t perform
too well at the relatively easier Caulfield and Moonee Valley tracks but
are more than equal to the task coming back to Sandown or onwards to Flemington.
Punters betting on Melbourne races would
do well to take note of these very interesting statistics which were gathered
over several racing seasons.