Last year we had a poor finish to our Winform Winners program. The strike rate was still exceptionally high at better than 35% but the odds had disappeared. It seemed that to make a profit we had to lift the strike rate even further. To achieve this we would have to look very closely at each bet.
According to statistics, caution is required once the barrier reaches double figures. We inserted a rule that disqualifies a selection if it is drawn outside barrier 9.
We discovered, by going back through our database that selections in fields of 7 or less had an increased strike rate. The problem was, that with that increase in strike rate, came a savage reduction in dividends. A loss of over 20% was recorded so out went selections in fields of less than 8.
Similarly, it is common knowledge that horses that finish within 3 lengths of the winner last start, or were a winner themselves, were more likely to win next start. We introduced an elimination rule for horses finishing more than 3.1 lengths from the winner.
Weight carrying ability varies in horses. Most horses, though, can handle up to 57kgs. Some horses can handle more. Some systems use a rule of starting with horses from 53-56 kgs. We simply put a limit of 57kgs. Usually, that would put you amongst the top weights, which are usually, the better horses.
A further well accepted theory is that horses generally don’t handle a steep rise in class. Some can, but not in numbers big enough for what we were looking for. We decided to eliminate any horse that was up in grade by more than the equivalent of one kilo. A horse could go from a Class Two to a Class three probably but not from a Class two to a Class Six.
We also decided to stay away from horses that had only one start. Many a horse can have one good start but may not have beaten much. We'd rather insist on at least two starts.
We have come to respect the statistics on average prizemoney. We haven't been too strict here but we would like our selection to be in the top six on average prizemoney. Oh, and we’d like our selection to have averaged at least $1,000 per start. This eliminates horses that have sound country form with little prizemoney, and thus, has been competing in inferior races.
Last thing. We apply the 15/50 rule. Our selection must have 15% wins and 50% places in its career to date.
All in all, I don't think we were asking much. Surprisingly, only one selection in ten passes all rules. Not surprisingly, we have lifted our strike rate from 35% to over 60% winners.
So what price are we talking about? Remember, each selection is already the pick of our top rated Winform selections. Our average win price is slightly better than $3.00 and with a strike rate of better than 35% that is enough to do very well with when there are around 20-25 bets per week.
With our increased strike rate comes a reduction in bets to just three or so per week but there has been no reduction in dividend, in fact, the most recent winner started at 7/2 or $4.50.
For the record there have been just 29 bets since January 1st for 18 winners and 24 placed. Each Winform Winner Special is noted on our daily selection sheet on the Internet. For more information on how to subscribe to Winfrom Ratings on the Internet click here.
Of course, the above rules may also be of assistance with your own selections. Why not give it a try?
DATE
|
HORSE
|
FINISHED
|
PLACE DIVIDEND
|
WIN DIVIDEND
|
8/1/99 |
VERDICT DECLARED |
2 |
$1.70 |
$0.00 |
9/1/99 |
KINGSTON PARADE |
1 |
$1.60 |
$5.00 |
|
SHES NEAT |
1 |
$1.30 |
$0.00 |
17/1/99 |
MUSDLIN ROSE |
0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
HOPEWOOD |
3 |
$1.20 |
$0.00 |
|
SINGITA |
3 |
$1.40 |
$0.00 |
23/1/99 |
MCJOEY |
0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
26/1/99 |
AL HARIQ |
1 |
$1.10 |
$2.80 |
30/1/99 |
STRTEAK |
1 |
$1.10 |
$1.80 |
|
BOLD REGENT |
1 |
$1.80 |
$3.30 |
6/2/99 |
SIZZLING SNIPPETS |
1 |
$1.04 |
$2.40 |
8/2/99 |
MIGHTY AMBER |
1 |
$1.00 |
$1.90 |
11/2/99 |
JUGAHTRICE |
2 |
$1.40 |
$0.00 |
12/2/99 |
LORING |
1 |
$1.20 |
$1.80 |
13/2/99 |
VIDA CELESTE |
0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
COMMANDS |
0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
ARIMETHEA |
1 |
$1.40 |
$1.80 |
|
KIMBERLEY GOLD |
1 |
$1.70 |
$4.20 |
14/2/99 |
RHONA |
2 |
$2.30 |
$0.00 |
|
HOT N BREEZY |
1 |
$1.30 |
$1.70 |
21/2/99 |
ELISHIR |
1 |
$1.30 |
$2.25 |
|
CATBIRD |
1 |
$1.30 |
$1.67 |
25/2/99 |
FAYROUZ |
1 |
$2.00 |
$4.50 |
27/2/99 |
HUNTER WINEMAKER |
2 |
$1.60 |
$0.00 |
|
GRAND ARCHWAY |
0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
3/3/99 |
IONISE |
1 |
$1.30 |
$3.25 |
4/3/99 |
GEORGEOUS INDEED |
1 |
$1.30 |
$2.75 |
8/3/99 |
HIGH OFFICE |
1 |
$1.20 |
$3.50 |
13/3/99 |
ZANADEN |
1 |
$1.60 |
$4.50 |
|