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arry Robinson
Greg's Punting Blog | Last Updated for: Tuesday 9th March 2010

Tuesday 9th March – Quite often the early star 2yo winners that are raved about all fall by the wayside by the time the Golden Slipper starts. However this year the Slipper is only four weeks away and at this stage the top five in betting markets all appear to be lining up. They have all been dominate in their wins so if none go shin sore,  this to me promises to be a Champagne Golden Slipper in 2010. I believe we will see a future champion emerge. This week’s Skyline Stakes & Sweet Embrace may see yet another unraced top liner emerges as well.

As I advised in the Blue Diamond I usually like a horse that has learnt to settle just a bit off the pace and get home hard. The most impressive 2yo I’ve seen this year that can come from off the pace has been Military Rose. However,  we will wait and see what the final field presents and line up all the times of these flying machines to make some sense of it and hopefully pluck one at juicy odds.
Oh by the way I never quite made it to Warwick Farm on Saturday but that’s another story so sorry nothing to report. In fact it was one of those days all round with several bets running second and then Flemington being smashed by hail and the meeting abandoned. Our Top rated selection in the Newmarketat $14 King Pulse ran a great 4th into a headwind (didn’t help my pocket) and shows star potential. However he slipped over on the hail coming back to scale then got away and slipped again.
The last I heard King Pulse was in the Vet Hospital with a shoulder injury which is a damn shame. I don’t think Saturday was a great day for a lot of people which was a pity.

Thursday March 4th For racing purist there is a host of Elite Group Racing this weekend. Hopefully we can score the Australian Cup this year at $14 again as we did last year with Niconero. The Group 1 Newmarket Hcp is run down the straight 1200m course No turns involved. The horse to look for are competitiors with proven records at the course & distance. The fields have just been released this morning and we will be annalysing the fields very closly to hopefully reap some rewards for our members and my pocket as well. Last years Newmarket was won by Scenic Blast in the smart time of 108.75.

Sunday is the Black Opal Stakes & National Sprint. Hopefully we still have plenty of money left in the pot as Monday is the Adelaide Cup meeting at Morphettville. The Cup & Goodwood Hcp used to be run in May but they opted to shift the race to March to avoid wet tracks. Thats OK but they left the rest of the Group races like the Goodwood Hcp in May. So now SA has a Super Saturday in May and in March the Cup is run with few lead up races into that staying distance of the cup. So be very wary of the lead up form into the Adelaide Cup.

Monday 1st March I am pleased to hear that several members have had some nice collects off our weekend feature race, well done to those members. I had a relaxing weekend in the upper Hunter. I have not had a chance to see this area since arriving in Newcastle some 5 months ago. For the horse enthusiast or wine buff I cant recomend this area enough. We stayed at Denman which has a lovley pub with full TAB & Sky Channel facilities and Sky Channel in your room as well - perfect.

Apart from numerouse Wineries and B&Bs only 20 km from Denham is the Coolmore Stud & Arrowfield Studs & Darley Studs.30 minutes drive from Denman is the town of Scone and the Horse capital of Australia with numerous studs and agistment farms and of course the racetrack. I'm told that stud tours in the area are conducted by Craig Benjamin of Upper Hunter Tours and whilst a little expensive worth every dollar. So if you get a chance to visit the area while in the Hunter region take my word and go for it, just pencil in a few days though.

The big Australian Cup and New Market Handicap Meeting will be this Saturday and I can't wait. Last year I backed the winner Niconero which Williams won on by the bearest of margins and paid $14.00. I didn't think it was a great ride but I was happy to take the win.

4:05 Flemington Race 8 07Mar09 2000m Gp1   WFA $1000000 Good

No     Form Horse              Wodds Wnet TCDWHB
 1 -0641X01 Niconero             2.2 78.8 T  WH 
 2 -2704X04 Master Oreilly       7.2 71.0 TCDWh 
 4 62151X31 Theseo              10.2 68.7 TCDWh 
 7 21236X72 Baughurst           27.0 62.2 TcDWh 
 3 X00-1X06 Blutigeroo          28.6 61.8 TCDWH 

Good Luck this week - Greg.

Thursday 25th February I had a enquiry from one of our members (Mark from WA) the other day trying to gauge my thoughts on our ratings in particular the horses at the bottom of the ratings. Mark bets with Bet Fair and does quite well and was trying to identify when Winform throws a Favorite down the order of ratings if it was indeed a good chance of being beaten. I personally do not like to talk about Belfair as it not my area of expertise and it goes against everything I stand for, and that is being a winner or backing a winner.

Since I spoke to Mark I did think of a few areas that I know are good favorites to lay with Betting Exchanges if you prefer that style of betting.
1/ Country Maiden winners racing in a provincial Class 1 next start lose 90% of the time. Hows that stat!

2/The foreign horses that don’t have a start in Australia before the Melbourne Cup. I once read that one particular book maker has bought a new home every year for the last 10 years from these so called European superstars that will steal our cup.

3/ Top quality Staying Group horses that are ridiculously short odds starting in a sprint race today back from a spell. Big media beef up. These horses don’t hit their straps until at least 3 runs in and around 2000m. Just look at Maldivian.

That’s all Ive got to say on betting exchanges but you would be wise to delete these horses from your selections on any given day. On a different note the Launceston Cup ended up a very small field and this Saturdays fields at Caulfield are disappointing fields sizes as well. The rigors of racing? or are they saving up for the Newmarket Meeting next week.

Good Luck - Greg.

Tuesday 23rd February My appoligies to those members that I was to call yesterday as I was home sick with a cracking migrain. Recording my weekends punting didnt improve my headache. Saturday/ Sunday was one of those weekends that leave you scratching your head. I had 6 straight out bets at odds of $3.20, $2.50, $4.00, $8.50, $12.00, $4.80 for 6 very close seconds.

Headway and Rangirandoo should have both won and Baby Corn at $12 hit the lead with 50m to go.I was inches away from a great day and in the end just wished one to get across the line for some money. Instead I owe the bookies plenty this week. Not even the trusted Quinellas saved me. Some times I do miss the old days when I use to back each way all day. At least you felt like you got some reward for the effort I once read in a book " He who bets each way - bets to live another day "

The reason that I dont bet each way over 30 years of records I have proved conclusively that long term each way betting is not as profitable. However on days like Saturday it really can try you paitence and pocket betting win only. .Oh well, on to the next week’s action or back to the drawing board .

Tomorrow sees the running of the Group 3 $300000-AAMI LAUNCESTON CUP, $100000 SHAW MM 2YO CLASSIC and the$100000 Listed•- ELIZA PARK VAMOS STAKESso that will keep my interest going. The Launceston Cup is a bit light on numbers this year but is sure to be keenly contested.This weeks Black type action will be at Caulfield, Rosehill and a good card at Morphetville leading upto the Adelaide Cup.

 Good punting this week.

Thursday 18th February As I said Monday racing is a funny game. On Saturday we were on fire.The trend continued Tuesday with a lovely winner for our Daily Feature race with the top rated selection leading all the way and paying $10.40 and collecting the Quinella and Trifecta as well. Yestarday was a dark day for Winform. The PBC clients had 2 bets for two losers, the feature race was an average 3rd , the Premiums all but one missed a place. I had a good go at the Mornington Quadrella and was jumping for joy when Mr Baritone $26 hit the lead with 100m to go in the first leg only to get run down. Murphys Law I had the winner of the last 3 legs. I lost my money cold yesterday.The point of this conversation ......... you never really know when the winners are coming or the big losing patches, just stick with your strategy and staking plan and be paitent.

Garry some how managed to grind out a nett profit with his new strategy that he is trialling. I think maybe he was just avoiding puting all these magazines into envelopes. Garry has supplied the results as follows :Money Factory 33 bets 12 wins 36% strike rate Avg did $3.32 Amount Bet $1447 Return $2106 Profit 659 ROI 45%Powerbet 70 Bets 12wins Race strike rate 36% Avg div $6.19 Amount Bet 2408 Ret $3211 Proft $803 ROI 33%

This Saturday is one of my favorite betting days the $1,000,000 Blue Diamond Stakes & Group One Oakleigh Plate.

Last year was very special as Winform rated Swiss Ace on top.  $81.00 was available on Swiss Ace. A capacity field of Quality runners and our second rated horse Tyhoon Zed was at early fixed odds of $13.00. This was just a brilliant opportunity for a big dividend on the Exotics and begging for an investment. I backed Swiss Ace each way at the early Fixed Odds of $81 on IASbet and  Typhoon Zed as a saver bet at $13 then took my top two selections as standouts in the Quinella , Trifectas and First Four.

3:30 Caulfield Race 6 21Feb09 1100m Gp1   HCP $400000 Good

No     Form Horse              Wodds Marg PrzCh Hcap BP   WPC   PPC A# Wnet Othr TCDWHB
 9 1113-0X7 Swiss Ace            6.9  2.5  -103 54.0 18  64.3  78.6  7 67.2        DW  
 2 2-1169X2 Typhoon Zed          8.2  1.0  -103 57.0 17  35.0  70.0  4 66.0      tcDW  
14 1X28-9X1 Red Element         10.6  0.3  +299 52.5  4  55.5  66.7 10 64.4  5.3 TCDW  
15 X1410X33 Fernandina          12.0  0.6  +299 52.5 10  37.5  75.0  9 63.6  5.3 TCDW  
11 911112-2 Happy Glen          17.4  0.3  +299 53.0  6  41.2  82.3 17 61.0      TCDWh 
 3 -210X21- Lucky Secret        22.1  0.2  +217 56.5 15  66.7  86.7  6 59.4      TCDWH 

2009 Oakleigh Plate result

As you can see from the above results the Winner ,Quinella $237.90 and Trifecta $6883.10 was a fantastic return. I wasn’t successful with the First Four but it was always going to be a big result in this race. I not kiiding myself that we will pull a $80 winner again , in fact I will be grateful if we can get a winner at any cost. This is always a tough race but a great betting opportuntiy. By the way , these were the 3 outside barriers, which never scare me. The media will no doubt start talking up the inside barriers again from today. They do win more than they lose but the odds get slashed accordingly.

In the Blue Diamond Stakes I usually like a horse that has learnt to settle just a bit off the pace and get home hard. Even more so in the Golden Slipper. I never pay any attention to all these early 2yo speed machines that lead from woh to go over 1000m and get installed as favoirte. The Blue Diamond and in particular the Golden slipper are high pressure races.

A million dollars prize money is not bad work for 69 seconds work!

Good Luck for the weekend.

Monday 15th February Racing is a funny game. Basically either you can't take a trick or you can't do any wrong. I have spent the last couple of weeks talking to our members both past and present trying to help them with their punting strategies and discuss their staking plans.

The weekend got off to a nice start with my standout selection late Friday afternoon in the Daily Feature Race The Walcha Cup. It won at the nice price of $9.80 on NSW TAB. We snaged a lovely Quinella and Trifecta as well.

To the few that I spent some time with last week I hope you didnt go fishing Saturday because it was a day that the Winform ratings just could do no wrong. Yes we will blow our bags on this occasion. As Garry has often said he reports both the good and bad openly for all to see. I hope we have heaps of winners to report on every Monday morning, that means the Members have heaps of money in their pockets as have I. Better than doom and gloom and hard luck stories.

When you have a big day on the punt you should shout and enjoy it a little. After Kennys World got up I ran around doing Hi Fives then settleled back down. Never forget to enjoy the wins. Only 2 races before I was cursing because I had backed More Than Great at $8.00 to knock off Mahattan Rain at $1.20. The race caller called it the winner and everone including the trainers thought it had won until the numbers went up!

For the record and interest of those members that we discussed strategies with here are the results from Sat.

Grandslam 9 bets 5 wins 2 plcs $25.00 dividens +16 units profit

Only The Best 7 bets 5 wins 2 plc $26.40 dividends +19 units profit

Best Bets/Prem 2 bets 2 wins $13.80 units +11.80 profit

Last Start Winners 7 bets 3 wins $14.20 dividens +7.20 profit.

The main point that I want to highlight again is yes all ratings and system have losing runs of outs , that is part and parcel but if you have an adequate race bank complimented with a well structured staking plan and you consolidate your punting to a handfull of methods that consistantly show profit year in year out, then even after the ineviable run of outs THE BIG PAY DAY WILL RETURN you just have to stick to your plan like glue.

I have been quite shocked at how many members I have spoken to who have all dropped off Grandslam even though they admitted that it finished well in profit again in 2009.Grandslam has made 182 units profit over the last 3 years. On $200 bets thats $36000 or $12000 profit a year which is not a bad supplimentary income. In 2010 make a comittment to commit to a strategy.

Good Luck this week.

Friday 12th Febuary Garry has been hard at work running through his new method on Powerbet and Money Factory.He used the same Bank for each i.e 3 $5000 banks for MF, 10 $1500 banks for Powerbet. Here are his result hot off the press today.

Base Bet MF $25

Base Bet Powerbet $15.

end result of test on over 100 bets.

MF Race strike rate 35% ave div $3.23

PB  RSR same of course, horse s/r 18% Av Div $5.66

Profit MF $ 541.20 39.9% POT

Profit Pbet $1236.30 37% POT

Powerbet turns over more money because of the minimum bet on each horse of $15 plus the recovery whereas MF use $25 between up to 3 horses plus recovery. This will be looked at in depth at the upcoming seminar.

Thursday 11th Febuary We had no joy in the Hobart Cup but am pleased to say that my Daily Feature Race both Tuesday and yesterday has produced the winners top rated, the Quinella , Trifectas, and First Fours. Yesterdays result was very pleasing with the first four paying $1127.30 on NSW tote. Best fluctuation paid much better on the winner which was no surprise.

I have managed to make contact now with quite a few past and present menmbers in the last couple of weeks and have had some in depth discussion on trying to help them with there punting strategies or gain any member feed back as how we can improve our service here at Winform. The discussions have been very insightful on both sides of the conversation.

We would welcome any feedback you can provide on  how we can fully satisfy our members needs in the coming year or if there are any recommendations you could make to improve our service at  Winform or highlight areas that have not met or exceeded your expectations.Your comments & thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

I spoke to Wayne yesterday as he was wondering how to effectively use the Winform Top 5 selections in multiples. I gave him a simple combination that is not that expensive and not rocket science. Just stand out your top 2 selections from the top 5 in Quinelles , Trifectas and First Fours. Cost for $1 ... Q 2x5 $7.00 Trif 2x5 $$24.00 First4 $48.00 ( if you took the Quinella for 4 units that would round out a even $100 outlay on the race ) That strategy on the Daily Feature race yesterday would have netted a return of Q $136.00 Trif $289 F4 $1127 TOTAL $1552. Thats the equivilant of a 15/1 winner. Even if you had just played the quinella only you could have returned $476.00 For those who bet smaller there is always the option selecting your maxium spend.

A good days racing coming up again Saturday and even though Melbourne has copped as much as 70mm rain in places they have advised that Moonee Valley has missed it altogether. I must say that I do treat Moonee Valley with caution since they revampled some years ago. In the old days I use to just back the good front runners and line up ready to collect , truely it was like shelling peas. Not so nowdays. Goodluck for the weekend, Greg.

Monday 8th Feb Its not often that I will pay a compliment to a jockey who’s mount has finished near last and cost me heap of money as did Irish Lights in the Rubiton Stks ng apprentice that has aspirations of becoming a Group 1 winning jockey then they should seriously get the video of that ride Saturday by Glen Boss on Irish Lights.From the outside barrier he got the horse out early up to 3rd in the first 200m sitting a little wide then swiftly pulled it back to 5th position and one off the fence saving ground and energy.

Round the turn he positioned the horse into the middle of the track sitting 4th and was in the perfect position to explode after the leaders had cut themselves up. Unfortunately the horse had nothing to offer and went backwards when asked for the effort. Either way a gem of a ride and if we ever buy another racehorse Boss can ride it in a flash.I hope the Daily Feature race clients got on board with the big trifecta and Quinella on Friday and buttered up again Saturday.

Today has an excellant days racing down in Tasi the - $400,000 AAMI HOBART CUP as well as a $80,000TATTERSALL THOMAS LYONS STKS & $80,000 WREST POINT STRUTT STAKES . Its a slow track but we are hopeful of a nice collect again. It’s always a hard race to catch the winner but usually some good multiples can be had.

On a different subject Melbournes weather can be hard to work out. On Saturday morningat 6.30am I listened to the track manager at Caulfield. He said that Friday night Moonee Valley got a heap of rain and ended up downgraded to a slow track. Caulfield is on 10 km away and didnt get a drop and as such would be expecting a good track Sat afo. Amazingly he was spot on.

Good punting this week. ( Greg)

Thursday 4th Feb The Daily Feature race clients were very unlucky yesterday when I gave them Prince Ombra as a standout at $12 against the odds on favourite. We led the whole way only to be nabbed in the last stride. I heard on the radio this morning that Townsville has had 518mm rain in the last 10 days and only has come up as a dead 5. Thats incredible, and possiblly makes Townsville the best wet weather surface in Australia.

I had a query from a geltleman the other day, who had read our magazine he wanted to know what ratings are. It took me a while to explain it and at first I had to stop and think as you do get complaicent and pressume that everyone would know what a rating means. It took me back to my early days when I got my coaching qualifications - the teacher said never presume that people know the simplest things just because you do. So I have put together a brief descriptions of Time Based Ratings for your interest.

Ratings.

Time Based ratings are derived by a process of comparison of each horses runs against a standard ( a par time ) for each track and distance adjusted for a track variant. Ratings generally fall within a range of points eg 25 - 70 points. Each point equates with 1/10 second or x amount lengths, but is varible by the distance of the race. The programe selects a qualifying run from what is considered to be the best and closest to the conditions of todays race.There are many other variables adjusted eg weight , jockey etc. After all the calculations are done the race is presented with the highest rated horse (wnet )being the top selection (or the fastest ) in todays race. I hope this helps.

Garry has supplied me with a copy of the Money Factory Workout he just completed and if anyone would like a copy feel free to email us here at wrc@hunterlink.net.au In the Autumn magazine David Bendeichs Key To Winning Consistently rules for the free ratings on the Internet are revealed. Here are the results from January for the systems revealed in his first book.

1/01/2010 to 31/01/2010
 Race Month      Bets Win Plc   WOut   WRet   WPrf  W%   WPOT    POut   PRet   PPrf  P%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January            12   5   8   1200   2390   1190  41   99.2    1200   1384    184  66

Wednesday 3rd Feb Garry has completed his Money Factory workout for the Premiums .Level stakes  $20 bet  $294.80 profit MFactory $20 base bet  $1151.85 Profit. Bank required $4,000 biggest drawdown $1563 or 39%. Interesting result.

Tuesday 2nd Feb: Garry has was busy yesterday reviewing the Premiums. His report is as follows:Parlay Magic with Premium. Well it was interesting. For a $10 parlay the profit since October was just $75 and for the Place Parlay it was $6419. What a difference but of course with runs of 21 and 23 places in a row at times it should come as no surprise. The question is? If everybody does it, will the place prices hold up?As for Money Factory, well it's a no brainer. You hardly got out of first gear. I prefer either level stakes if you have a big bank already or Professional Staking Plan if you don't.

Monday 1st Feb: For the benefit of those members who have contacted us in the last week or two inquiring about how the Premium selections are going with the addition of David Bendiechs KTWC3 rules here are the following results which I record manually every day on a spreadsheet. The dividends are based on the better of SP or NSW Tab which is consistant with all our other rating services.

Premiums with no rules Oct 29th - Jan 31 201 Bets 89 winners 44% win Strike Rate 158 places 78% place strike rate. Win Profit on Turnover 4.4% Place POT 4.4%

With KTWC3 rules applied : 169 bets 79 wins 47% win strike rate.134 plcs 79% plc strike rate Win Profit on turnover 8.72 % ( 14 units ) and Plc POT 5.5% (9.36 units )

Had you bet all the non qualifying selections for the win there were 32 bets for 10 wins for a loss of 18% POT.So the Premiums are definately travelling along sweetly in the right direction. We have had 10 winners from the last 19 selections since boxing day.Garry is currently running these selections through a work out of Money Factory and Parlay Magic to see how it stacks up against the level stakes investment. I will keep members informed as soon as he has the results.

Thursday 28th January : I have had a few queries from members of late who are a not 100% sure how the ratings are arrived at. I have taken some extracts from Garrys book of some years ago The Ultimate Strategy to try and briefly explain how to access times manually. I travelled to Newcastle some 13 years ago to one of Garrys seminars and learnt how to rate horses by time manually but believe you me it is a godsend now having a computer work it all out. The GTX programme picks a quailifiying run as close to possible to the conditions of todays race.

Extract : Time Handicapping - The Ultimate Strategy.

There are some fair arguments against using time as a factor. There is the fact that at different times of the year the texture and coverage of grass on the different tracks will vary. There is the factor of wind and it’s direction and to be honest you will never know exactly when any of these factors are affecting your selections unless you can actually be there as each race is run and this, of course, is impossible.

In using time as a factor I am not totally relying on just this one factor of the many factors that affect the accurate handicapping of racehorses. It is, however, the main factor. What we look for when we review the form of any particular horse is the ability to run at a fast pace. Once we have established that animal’s greatest ability (i.e. fastest time) we can then look at the probability that it is now capable of repeating that ability in the current race after taking into account all the other factors in the race.

Compare this to the more common method of handicapping, the weight and class method. In this method each Class of race is given a certain assessment.

Class/weight handicapping doesn’t end these. Each horse is assessed for the Class of race it has contested and then that form is adjusted against the Class of the current race. Say for example the class weight factor for the last race was 53kgs. It is possible that today’s race is also the same class of race yet it is clear from the list of acceptors that this race is an above average field. You then have to assess the Class of this race in order to accurately handicap the field. This method constantly introduces subjective decisions that have to be made. I might assess a particular race as being 2kgs. above the normal grading. You, on the other hand, may assess the race as being 1kg. under the Class norm. Who is right? According to the legendary Pittsburg Phil the man who can correctly assess Class can have all the money he wants and he only needs a dollar to start.

What he is saying is that the ability to correctly assess the Class of racehorses is extremely rare. If I said to you Let’s Elope was a Class hose in the middle of 1991 then that would be my opinion and I would be welcome to it. If I made the same statement after Let’s Elope had won the Caulfield Cup, The McKinnon, The Melbourne Cup and then gone on to win the Australian Cup against the best horses in the land without getting much out of a working gallop, you would be able to retort "Well that’s obvious."

The actual time the average racehorse takes to run his own length is well accepting as being .15 of a second. Whilst this would be the ideal time to allot when making our assessments of racetimes, it doesn’t take into account the factors that exist in a race, especially at the finish. If we applied the time factor quite strictly we would still be right a lot of the time, particularly in the case of a race where none of the assessments were based on any of the horses actually winning their race. In a lot of the races won, the winner deserves a bonus.

You will invariably note, that in spite of stewards warnings, most jockeys will stop riding their mounts just as soon as they have the race won. This applies equally to horses who are leading and horses who have finished on and hit the front. The best method I have found to reward winning horses is to use .2 seconds as the time factor. I emphasize that pint.

.2 seconds = 1 length

It is not so common for hoses to be eased down amongst horse who have failed to win, unless they are well back and have no chance to improve their position sufficiently to win prizemoney. The horses who finish amongst the placing are generally trying their heart out and either can’t catch up or are starting to plod or paddle as the commentators now like to say.

I think you would agree that if the method works you should use it. The method works. Let’s look at the downside of the argument using our two sample horses. We will assume that Lord Chris has been beaten two lengths and Royal Liege has been beaten three lengths. The difference between the two at .15 secs = 1 length is

.45 secs - .30 secs = .15 secs.

Whilst .60 secs - .40 secs = .20 secs.

is the result of using .2 = 1 length. When we re-evaluate the formula we still arrive at the same conclusion i.e. that Lord Chris finished 1 length in front of Royal Liege. The real difference will show up much later when we start pricing our selections and we will always arrive at the result that rewards those horses that finished in front of, or ran faster than, the other horses.

So how does it all work out in practice? I’ll make these examples as simple as possible before we get in to the real stuff later on when all the various factors are taken into account.

In a 1200 metre race Lord Chris is beaten 2.5’ lengths in a time of 1.11.2, whilst in another race over 1200 metres Royal Liege won his race in 1.11.6. Assuming both horses are now in the same race with the same weight, what are their adjusted times?

Royal Liege 1.11.6 No adjustment.

Lord Chris 1.11.2 + 2.5 X .20 = 5.0 = 1.11.2 + 5 =

1.11.7

Clearly, Royal Liege should win by ½ a length.

Now let’s look at the same example to see how the formula rewards winners.

Royal Liege 1.11.6 No adjustment

Lord Chris 1.11.2 + 2.5 X .15 = .375 = 1.11.2 + .375 =

1.11.575 lets say 1.11.6

In this example I have used the actual finishing times of both horses and arrived at the conclusion that Lord Chris would maybe just beat Royal Liege in a tight finish. No account has been taken of the fact that Royal Liege’s performance was almost certainly better.

The Race Club’s official handicapper would almost certainly have penalised Royal Liege’s winning effort and made no adjustment to Lord Chris. Horses who have won their last start win a substantially greater number of races than horses who were placed last start. This one statistic on it’s own reveals the need to add a bonus to winning horses. The .2 seconds = 1 length is the one to use.

Friday 22nd January .A host of racing this weekend but the best days action will undoubtably be Tuesday - Australia Day ay Caulfield, with the Blue Diamond Preludes. Caulfield is one of my favorite betting tracks as it has a very poor record for favourites which opens up great betting opportunities for any astute punter that has done thier homework ( and a little luck of course ) Caulfields straight is only 367 metres long. Caulfield is a track suited to horses that can lead or race up on the pace.

Below I have pasted Winforms performance table for Caulfield, it should be taken into account that all track conditions are included and that the larger the number of races covered .Betting either both or one of the Top Two selections represents the best chance of making long term profits from Racing with Winforms average dividends at Caulfield $6.61 year in year out.Using software staking plans like Powerbet are perfect for these sort of dividends. Quadrellas up to $97,000 which occurred on our lowest strike rate tracks and Trifectas and other exotic bets up to $67,000. So good punting for the w/end.

Wednesday 20th January .Im pleased to say that finnally there is some consistancy starting to surface for our Performance Based Selection as we have selected 5 winners from the last 8 races. It was unfornuate yesterday that best flucuation wasnt on offer for Prince Ombra at Wyong as it was avalible at $5.00 at one stage but SP was only $3.30.

This Friday Night will see the running of the $200000 Group2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley.Early nominations are below. The first Group 1 of the season is not far away.Last years winner is Lucky Secret is nominated again.He won in a time of 1:11:2

Of $200000 and $2500 trophy. 1st $120000 and trophy of $2500, 2nd $36000, 3rd $18000, 4th $9000, 5th $5000, 6th $4000, 7th $4000, 8th $4000.

For Three-Years-Old and Upwards. Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 2).

Friday 15th January .I read an interesting snippet in the Daily Telegraph yesterday. TAB Fixed Odds received an interesting bet from an unknown punter who placed $18000 on a double with Bank Robber in last nights Canterbury Classic into Secession to win the Group One Blue Dimond Stakes on Feb 20. Now thats one big bet on a double. Unfortuatenly for this punter Winform produced the winner in the top two selections with News Alert finally winning in strong syle. It would be worth while however to watch out for Seccession when the 2yo races hot up soon. Where theres smoke !

Tuesday 12th January 2010.It was a shocking day for Winform Clients on Saturday with most of our system bets running last, Our PBC clients had 6 bets for 6 unplaced some at even money! I saved my butt on a couple of good priced winners in the feature races at the Gold Coast including the Magic Millions but it was a hard slog.

There is racing at Canturbury under lights this Thursday night with a good listed race. The Summer Cup at the Sunshine Coast will be run this Sunday and normally is a top field with big trifecta dividends. Here is hoping we can get some money back in the kitty.

Thursday 7th January 2010. Our Daily feature Race scored again yesterday with the Devonport Cup. It was hard to split our top two rated horses. Our top rated selection With Decorum won and $4.00 fixed odds were available early on IASbet but I was extreamly worried that our 2nd rated selection Beven Heights at $26.00 had great form credentials with 5 starts at the distance for 3 wins and 4 starts at the distance for 2wins. Beven Heights prize money average was 13th in this field so way up in class.

This was clearly a classic situation where the odds highlight a great dutch bet. $250 on With Decorum @ $4 would gross a return of $1000 or a smaller bet of only $38 @ $26 would gross $1000 Had we got it wrong or the bookies. With Decorum duly saluted and Beven Heights ran 3rd. I was hoping that we could get the Quinella as well but you can't win them all.

With Decorum has given Longford trainer John Blacker an emotional win in Wednesday’s Devonport Cup at Spreyton.Blacker’s wife Maree was killed by a tsunami which ripped through the Samoan holiday resort the pair was holidaying last year, a disaster which left Blacker injured as well.Blacker only returned to Tasmania’s training ranks in November. Well done to the connections.

Tuesday 5th January 2010. Yesterday’s broadcast I highlighted the Daily Feature Race it proved to be prophetic with our top 5 rated selections scoring in the Moruya Cup with the Quinella ,Trifecta and First 4. Our top rated selection was just pipped on the line by our 3rd rated selection which paid $20.10 win. The Daily Feature race has now had 6 winning days out of 8.

The Trifecta paid $1192 alone and would cover the annual cost of this service three times over. The first 4 which I did not take paid $14,226 which I hope one of our members got. As I mentioned before feature races are the heart and sole of my personal punting so I do spend a large amount of time trying to find the most appropriate races to bet on and then have a good attack at both the win bets and multiples if the odds permit.

 4:50 Moruya Race 7 04Jan10 1650m Opn   HCP $22000 Dead

No     Form Horse              Wodds Wnet TCDWHB
 5 1X32-113 Sebony               2.8 66.4 T  W B
 3 X3621330 Regal Celeb          4.1 63.9 TcdWh 
16 X7718560 Big Huey            13.0 56.2 TCDWh 
 8 1235x210 Blow Up The Pokies  17.3 54.4 T  WH 
11 X4004780 River Ronald        28.9 50.9    W  

The irony yesterday is that I was going to give this selection ( Sebony ) out to our PBC clients as $4.40 was readily available fixed odds. Its a good thing that I didn't as they have not had a good December with Garry's & my selections and a close 2nd would have not hit the spot. There was stakes of money to be made of this race as was the $200,000 Lough Neagh Stakes in Doomben in Doomben two weeks ago that I higlighted. In both races I got pipped for the win but still walked away smiling proving that just reliying on single win bets does require patience and self belief and a good size bank.

Anyone wanting a cost effective service can do worst than subscribe to our Daily Feature Race at a cost of $150 per year for members or $363 for non members thats $1 per day ! or our phone line is 19025 210 868 pin 2612.

Good punting Greg,

Monday 4th January 2010: Happy New Year to All. A quiet start to the New Year for me personally with only 5 bets for one winner Royal Ida at $6.50 which I nominated as our Daily Feature Race but a profit for the w/end none the less. I have finalised my betting strategies for 2010. I spent over 20 hours working on my staking plan alone.

When putting a betting plan together I always do so in this order :

1/ Work out how you will select the form

2/Based on past records work out how many bets that will produce approximately per week or year and the expected strike rate and average dividend.

3/Once you have a clear understanding of the amount of bets and strike rate then, and only then, can you build the most appropriate staking plan around your betting action. For examlple a large amount of my betting action is around feature races so my expected strike rate is only about 20% but a higher than usual average dividend.

This means I can experience a run of outs of up to about 25 losers in a row. Its no use using a staking plan that is putting on bets of say 5% of my bank as I will go broke fast! I personally have a betting bank of 100 units and that in reserve. For those clients that bet shorter priced selections like Winforms Premium Selections with a 40% strike rate and low average dividen then Winforms Money Factory works a treat.

I hope this helps as a guide.

This weeks betting action includes some good country and provincial cups. This Weekend Saturday 9th January features the Gold Coast Magic Millions Day which I can't wait for, but hopefully the track will have dried out a bit by then. Gai Waterhouse is very confident she can win the $2 million race with the Punters Club star Bright Expectations but any one who watched Spirit Of Boom win by 7 lenghts over 900m would have to be impressed. However it will be tough to back up in 7 days. Good Luck to all.

Tuesday 29th December: I hope you all have had a enjoyable Christmas break. I had a very excited phone call from my nephew on Boxing day. He headed my advice that I gave him a week ago and had a real good go at the Christamas Hcp in Adelaide. Not only did he back the winner Shekinaar at $23 but scored the Quinella 20 times and it paid $312 Unitab for $1.

He picked up nearly $8000 on the race. Now all I have to do is practice what I preach because I must admit that I have swayed marginally from my set plays over the last couple of months ( I'm human ) and it has cost me dearly. You must stick it out for the full 12 months. We had a call from Bill today. He wanted an explanation as to what a dash ment next to the form on our winform horses.

11 5X22- Peach Tree 1.6 6.0 -3 55.0 3 66.7 1 43.3 w B

In the above example - means a short break/ freshen up usually 28 days not a spell which is x.In the coming days I will put up a comprehensive explanation of the form on winform ratings as it does differ from the old standard form guides.

Thursday 24th December: I had a meeting with Garry yesterday as we are endeavoring to improve all aspects of Winform in 2010 and have set some big challenges and the highest of standards. It is not easy in any business to appease everybody’s personal needs but we are doing our best to achieve just that.

In our conversation I mentioned to Garry some of the reasons or frustrations that I experienced one year when I dropped out as a Member but more importantly I highlighted what brought me back and has always kept me coming back as a Member (prior to now working here of course).

The FIVE core reasons I highlighted were:

FANTASTIC CUSTOMER SERVICE
The Staff here have always attended to my requests so promptly. That is a rarity in this day and age. And now that I am on the other side of the fence I am even more amazed at how great and quick the service has been as I didn’t realise how time consuming and lengthy some of the simple chores can be like the influx of request for posting Magazines and Books in the week prior to Xmas or setting up new memberships in our Databases. I assure you it’s not just a click of a button.

GARRY ROBINSON
Garry himself has always responded to any queries that I have had. He has put himself out to help and guide me through the punting years. I know he gets up at some mornings at 3:00 a.m. just so he can answer ever bodies emails.  Maybe we can get him a job helping Santa if he gives up the punt. I don’t personally know of too many businesses these days where you can speak to the man in charge do you. Try a phone company.

HONESTY
Even if Winform has a terrible month of results they are recorded honestly on the internet for all to see. There are no glossed up figures to make us look good. And if we receive a nasty email from disgruntled client Garry posts that on our webpage’s right alongside the good news stories. Winform doesn’t pick and choose.

RESULTS
While Winform can have good results and bad results over certain years it’s the uniqueness of selections utilising Times that has just blown me away on occasions for example earlier this year Swiss Ace was rated clearly on Top at $81 in the Group1 Oakleigh Plate and duly saluted. I know of no other Rating Service or Selection method that even went close to pick Swiss Ace and that is what keeps me coming back. The year before Action Pak at $59 bolted in the Kalgoorlie Cup. I personally was taught by Garry some 13 years ago how to rate horses on times manually but I am so pleased that the computer works its out in seconds these days. It’s just a matter of applying some common sense parameters or filters to the top selections.

OTHER MEMBERS
There are so many Members in the background that have some input to Winform in Feedback, or system ideas or writing articles or even like David Toulson's Sports Selections which have had a great run. It makes you feel like we are all sharing the highs and lows together and you aren’t alone.

I personally will be spending my couple of days off over Xmas finalizing my betting attack for 2010.I like to tweak it each year as it keeps me sharp and enthused (not too much tweaking though). You must never become complacent in racing as it will bite you when you least expect it.

I always look at  what type of races and how many Selections per week that is likely to throw up at and average dividend vs strike rate. When I have that clearly fixed in my mind I then select the best possible staking plan to compliment that attack. I hope that helps if you are wondering how to approach the New Year.

Have a Safe & Merry Xmas from myself and all the Winform Team.

Here is hoping we back lots of winners in 2010.

Wednesday 23rd December: As the year nears an end there is still a couple of rich races on the diary, Today sees the running of the $100,000 XXXX BITTER FILLIES AND MARES HANDICAP (1200m) at Toowoomba. Below is a table of the Black Type Races over the next week for those of you intersested. I personally love New Years Day its been a gold mine to me.

Monday 21st December: I hope some Members that read my blog prior to the weekend headed my advise for Saturday.

I sugessted that having a go at the multiples in the $200,000 Lough Neagh Stakes in Doomben.was a good attack as the race presented a great betting oppurtunity. Our top rated hores Ghetto Blaster got the prize by a whisker from Zero Rock.

$10 was readibly avalible on Ghetto Blaster from Thursday night until Saturday morning on most Corporate Bookmakers. Garry and I were going to throw this race out to our PBS clients but I noted that Zero Rock had recieved a 20 point penality for being 2nd up from a spell and was way down in our Ratings. However, Zero Rock had good 2nd up form, and if you added it back the penalty then there was little between Zero Rock and Ghetto Blaster and thats exactly how the race paned out.

The Quinella paid $19.40 Trifecta $581.00 & First4 $3293 NSW. In fact, with Zero Rock added back in the mix we had the first five horse across the line as Forestreno ran fifth as well so the ratings were spot on!

 5:15 Doomben Race 7 19Dec09 1350m LR   HCP $200000 Good

No     Form Horse              Wodds Wnet TCDWHB
 5 1-31X244 Ghetto Blaster       6.3 70.1 TCDWH 
 2 61-131-3 Forestreno           7.8 68.6 TcdWh 
17 11713X31 Baqaba              10.1 67.0 TCDW  
12 20-15X26 Eire Of Magic       10.1 66.9 TcdW  
 8 -32X2215 Kennys World        11.5 66.1   dWH 

Unfortunately the other Feature Race of the Day the Villers in Sydney our top rated horse Our Luckas did not present us with any chocolates and the 2nd Rated Palacio De Crystal won easily at $6.50. Perhaps we should have Dutch Bet the two of them but, hindsight is a wonderfull thing in this game.

I personally will be consolidating my betting in 2010 and investing more money on fewer races with the goal of really attacking races like that of Doomben Saturday that just present great oppurtunity for big returns. I had a good go at Our Luckas as well but no joy but at odds of 12/1 I am realistic enough to realise that I wont be maintainging a 50% win strike rate. I am happy to be patient for the big wins to come along. But thats me, its not for everone.

Friday 18th December: I was speaking to my nephew in S.A. yesterday. He has lost his way with his punting over the last few months so I brought him back to earth with his approach and advised him to stick to some key core principals and stop fluffing around. Last night he rang me late to thank me. I had given him a wake up call and he was pumped and ready to take on 2010 with zest. Then he quoted the funniest line which I though would make a great entry for todays Blog.

"Punters are like men in a boat out at sea, drifting aimlessly for days ,waiting for a wave to happen and take them in some direction.The next morning they usually just find themselves washed up on the rocks."

Thursday 17th December: Welcome to my first Blog for Winform. This weekend there are 3 Feature Races across Australia. The $150,000 Group 2 Villiers Stakes at Randwick and The $250000 Group 2 Cox Stakes in Ascot and the $200,000 Lough Neagh Stakes in Doomben. I must say that on first glance that the Villiers is down on class compared to previous years but the oppurtunity for a good dividend is still there. I will definately be having a go at the multiples in the $200,00o Lough Neagh Stakes in Doomben. Big field but a big oppurtunity.